The Golden Generation: Why China’s super-rich send their children abroad
newyorker.com
newyorker.com
I guess this happens all over the world. The rich get to live in the nicest cities and everyone else gets pushed out. I've lived here my whole life but soon I won't be able to call it home. I can't read many of the street signs in Richmond (Cantonese and Mandarin). I take the bus to University while some of my Chinese classmates drive their Maserati/Lambo/Mercedes. It feels like my home is being sold out from underneath me to the Chinese. I don't know how to solve this or even approach talking about it without offending people. Maybe I need to open my mind and not view this as a problem. But it makes me very sad to feel like I don't belong in the place where I grew up.
Interestingly this is a bit of an exceptional case; it being a bubble and all you actually have leverage. The interesting thing about real-estate is that it's not like factories; the land doesn't itself produce value. If the people of Vancouver leave and it's nothing but investment property those prices will go down. Once they begin going down, it'll be a bad investment and they'll come down a lot (pretty common bubble situation). So if you think the market put the wrong price on those houses, just don't pay it and leave. Plenty of other good cities out there.
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/investigations/questiona...
Full disclosure: I grew up on a farm in the middle of nowhere and have never lived in a large city.
Of course, you could do remote work. But those kinds of jobs are not yet the norm. Plus, a lot of jobs require daily face-to-face interaction with clients, coworkers, or higher-ups.
Pick the middle of Florida's east coast though, and you could afford a big house (perhaps half acre, 4 bedroom) within a mile of work. Yes, there are jobs.
Not really. Something needs to be done about parochial land use laws that prevent supply from rising to meet demand: http://www.amazon.com/TheRent-Too-Damn-High-Matters-ebook/dp.... Until that happens, prices will rise. Despite many efforts to the contrary, you cannot legislate away supply, demand, and prices.
Preventing new development appears to have really taken off in the 1970s, according to Chapters 7 and 8 of William Fischel's Zoning Rules!: http://www.amazon.com/Zoning-Rules-Economics-Land-Regulation.... Until we reverse that dynamic (or make cities less attractive places to live) we're going to see rising prices.
As the article makes clear, real estate is increasingly viewed as an asset that can simply be purchased and held on to diversify a risky portfolio. Foreign property owners add little to no value (in a true, human, social sense) to the greater society. They do contribute tax revenue, but at the expense of making real estate unattainable for others by driving up prices.
Real estate used to be the center of a business owner's livelihood or a family's multi-decade investment in an area with family, good schools, a good community, etc.
While increasing supply would reduce price, foreign investors would simply purchase more. Demand for (perceived) stable assets to offset market volatility is at an all time high, especially in China where many are trying to export wealth.
When the market crashes, you'll have an oversupply of property that was built for people who did not actually inhabit the area.
> Would it completely replace the current property tax?
Of which country?
There are lots of ways to implement LVT in different countries and different states (and it could even be implemented at even more local levels).
I have a softspot for methods that ask the owner themselves to value the land, but apply mechanism to keep them honest. (Like, `you have to sell at the declared value to any comer.') But honestly, those are probably not even the most practical ones.
Also, this transition in real estate's role is a result of globalization. Without some kind of capital controls it's very hard to undo it's effects. Your best bet is a supply-demand oriented solution.
I don't see a mechanism whereby an increasing level of inventory causes a crash. I'm saying that when a crash happens, we'll be left with wasted excess capacity as investors rush to sell off ill-thought out high rise complexes, micro apartment buildings, second and third homes they can no longer afford to pay taxes on, etc.
Given the profile of the typical buyer at the high end of the market in Vancouver, an outsized effect like the one described above is unlikely. These homes are not mortgaged and their owners have savings they draw upon instead of income from employment. Job losses a la 2008 do not affect them as much. For these reasons I doubt we will ever see the kind of corrections in Vancouver like we saw in places like Phoenix and Las Vegas in 2008.
Finally, a somewhat normative question, what's wrong with cheap housing? I agree with you that ill-thought out planning is detrimental to the city's quality of life. But to me at least it seems that the planning and permitting process is overly restrictive.
There is some component of demand that is buying these single family houses just for the extra space for their family. Rezoning detached houses to slightly more dense row houses will help increase supply for this group. The city is already doing this, but should certainly do more. The city can't do anything about people buying detached houses for investment and prestige reasons.
Vancouver is not SF. It has been building condo towers non stop since the 90s. Rent is not extremely unaffordable and condo valuations have been largely flat in comparison to single family houses.
More three bedroom apartments need to be built. This is a regulatory issue that shows how important the role of government and urban planning is. The city has already indicated that they're going to require developers to include a greater percentage of multi bedroom residences.
The biggest problem with housing is that it's just too easy to influence people to create an artificial scarcity when there is now, and in the few places there is no land laws will help as developers like to keep the supply short in order to increase it's value.
Even a small shortage (fake or real) can increase the value of properties by 100's of percent this means that building more isn't lucrative to neither developers nor investors, if you just bought a property as an investment you sure as hell do not want the developer going on and building 10 new ones as it will tank the price of your property. This means that even on the off chance that a developer might find formula that will allow them to build more the investors wont buy in and without that they can't build as no sane developer builds even a parking lot out of pocket these days.
On the other hand government housing isn't good either in most places government housing turns into ghettos faster than you can open a 7/11 and in the few countries it didn't like say Sweden it created the worse housing shortage anyone can imagine while creating a black market which corrupted the entire system.
If anything oddly enough China is taking the best approach just build entire cities, sure some of them rest as ghost cities for some years but unlike what the media reports in the west they tend to be filled almost instantly once the planets align.
As a non-rich, this seems natural & unavoidable given the fundamental principals of economics & the free market. I'm not sure anything can be done about it, and I don't believe the people who say that if only we did X, everyone & anyone who wanted to live in Vancouver/Manhattan/Pacific Heights could.
You're saying that one ideological change won't enable that for me (and every one of the other 100 million like me)?
One of the great things about rich kids is that they never really learned how much anything is really worth. So you can hand them pretty cocktails made from rail booze and gold leaf, and they gleefully hand you your next 20 car payments.
So you're looking at it the wrong way. It is an opportunity, not a curse. Turn that foreign investment into foreign spending. And try to make sure that a good portion is spent on you.
Victoria is one of the few cities that actually tracks the citizenship of the buyer. In 2015, 97.8% of buyers of homes in Victoria were Canadian citizens. 0.68% were from Asia.[1]
I asked Bing Thom about the changes. The property boom has, of course, been good for the architectural profession, but Thom, who is now in his early seventies, is troubled by what is happening to his home town. “By all accounts, I have done pretty well in my business, but I made more money from sitting on my Vancouver property than I made by working an entire lifetime,” he said. “That tells you something.”
Fuerdai come from the 2%, the 1% are comfortable in China and do not need to export wealth
Extreme poverty is only 1-2 generations away for many Fuerdai
"Astronaut" dynamic where father sends child/wife to establish home abroad
Spoiling children of the elite due to an apprehension of their coming of age
Vancouver has become a "hedge city" against volatility at home
State is addicted to tax revenue from international buyers
"City has become a hotel" and "countries are selling citizenship"
Fuerdai caught between Western and Chinese culture, belong to neither
Author ends the piece with this quote from a Weymi, a fuerdai: [In reference to Weymi's mother] She didn’t want to be like her mom or older sister, always gossiping about those in the village a smidgen better off than themselves.” Weymi put down her chopsticks. “It’s that kind of typical provincial pettiness, but that was her entire life if she had stayed.” She shook her head and drew a breath. “I mean, can you just imagine?"The irony is deliciously tangible. Great piece with a lot to think about and chew on.
Much of the buying is in a small number of places: London, New York, San Francisco. The impact there is huge.
The US built 965,700 housing units (this includes apartment units) in 2015.
Toronto had more condo buildings being built a few years ago than any other city in the world outside of a few cities in China. Something like 10x more than Chicago which was the #1 in the US for building construction.
I know quite a few people living in them who talk about how they are empty most of the time except when the Chinese owners children come to visit. Renting isn't always viable since there is a glut of condos available. Housing prices continue to go up there while condo prices actually went down for the first time in forever.
Even if these lazy Chinese kids' rich parents are subsidizing the hard-working Americans' education? (You can bet a Chinese billionaire's paying the full tuition without financial aid.)
Taxpayers are mostly the ones doing the student loan subsidizing. Whether the loans are funded through the Treasury or semi-indirectly via the Fed, it overwhelmingly comes out of US taxpayer pockets one way or another.
Why do you say it's a finite system?
personally i don't see much of a difference. i know plenty of both types and they're basically the same except for skin color.
And it WORKED! People really went to Cal or Davis or Chico or Bakersfield and made it out of poverty. All because the tuition was cheap and the plan worked. And California became what it is today. Silicon Valley, Hollywood, the Salinas agriculture sphere, Napa Valley, the dairy and forestry, all these places exist in California in some way due to the success of the master plan. The UCs are THE Jewel of The West's crown because the people of California put their money where their mouth was. They believed that education was the way to good living for their children. Assemblywoman Dorothy Donahoe, for whom the Master Plan bill was named, believed in the children of California. She was a person that planted trees whose shade she knew she would never sit in, and she did for her love of the people of California. And California grew mighty for those sacrifices. The UCs are THE BEST universities that have ever existed, by nearly any measure. The people of California, for decades and generations, paid into this with their taxes and knew it was good.
And now, now we have the scions of the Pacific Rim are cheating and buying their way into these places. They are taking the seats from hard working sons and daughters of farmers and loggers, dentists and doctors, mechanics and architects. And they flaunt their wealth! They don't care that the janitors who dream that their daughters will attend Santa Cruz and UCLA see them do doughnuts in Lambos.
The influx of wealth strikes at the core of the Master Plan and the hopes and dreams of the people of California. The UCs are seen as just another playground for the elite in this way (not strictly true yet). But for some reason the people of California are stuck footing some of the bill.
[0]http://www.ppic.org/main/publication_quick.asp?i=1119
[1]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/California_Master_Plan_for_Hig...
they also make up a tiny percentage of the overall student body. not that anyone gives a shit about that, because asian == foreign to most people.
2. I used to be uhh a foreign national in the U.S (as I still am), and assumed it was a known fact that Chinese nationals often buy their way through college. Somewhat related: Northeastern and their special- Chinese-student program that gives 4-year US degrees with 0 knowledge of English.
3. It is not necessarily something to complain about, as long as it doesn't COMPLETE dilute the value of the degrees concerned. AFAIK, Chinese students (NOT Chinese American, mind) are the only students who will often pay 100% of the feels, with no request for scholarships. So to look at it the other way, you're subsidizing smarter students by taking in slightly less smart students (tbh, most Chinese students are extremely competitive, so we shouldn't be generalizing.)
That kind of thing is very hard to acknowledge in the USA, even if true. It strikes close to past civil rights struggles.
And diluting the value of that degree at the same time by graduating not learning anything.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/answer-sheet/wp/2016/01/...
Is there no such procedure at US institutions?
Think of each university in the US has having its own culture and way of doing things. Many universities certainly use best practices, but there are no federal regulations on such things as test identification.
Note that not every American has state-issued photo ID, especially among the poor.
Basically, the stereotype that all <insert group> look alike does happen, NOT because they do look alike, but because to someone who does not know members of that group, their facial recognition system (mental schema) are not developed enough to tell people apart.
Think of it like if you trained a neural network to do facial identification by only giving it white people. Compared to a near identical network where the only difference was that it was trained on a cross section of all of earth's people, which would you expect to do a better job?
Strangely enough, the Chemistry Department was better at recognizing me than my own Comp Sci Department. Perhaps it was because my major stood out on the class ranking printouts. In one course, the profs gave out a new CRC Manual as a prize to the top scorer in the class, and they were lucky Sujata Bhatia beat me, because it might have been embarrassing to the department otherwise. Maybe lucky isn't the right word--the lady had mad skills with a molecule.
I suppose it would have been theoretically possible for me to have been impersonating another student the entire time I was at university, but so long as I answered to the same name during lectures and labs as I wrote on the test, and that name was paid up on tuition according to the bursar, that was pretty much all the verification that was needed.
http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/ubc-s-vantage...
Summary: Non-Californian students pay $23,000 more per year than Californian students, generating $600 million per year for the financially-strapped UC (University of California) system. UC is proposing to cap the number of out-of-state students at UC Berkeley and UCLA at 30% (its current level); no caps at other campuses. The total number of Californian students in the UC system will not increase; UC can't afford to admit more.
I think part of the problem is that the UCs are in a budget crunch and they were using out-of-state and international students to make up the shortfall. Supposedly, they're backing away from this strategy because it's starting to piss off the Legislature. People are complaining to their representatives because their kids aren't getting admitted, yet the number of out-of-state students keeps increasing. For me, the more annoying part is the fact that they're coming in with McLarens, Ferraris and Ashton Martins, and give off a level of amazing entitlement.
Nice to see another anteater, though!
Billionaires are going 'missing' every month and the government can pretty much take over your business and take all of your money, for any reason.
To make any kind of money there, you need to pay huge bribes.
Don't worry. If how the English treated First Nations is any guide, you'll get a reservation at the end of the day.
(Really brief history for those from outside the region: ethnic-Europeans have been ruling British Columbia for less than two hundred years.)
and nothing will be done about it because the powerful locals who make the laws are the ones getting rich (richer, really) selling all of the real estate to the foreigners.
and all of the anger will be misdirected at the chinese, allowing the process to continue indefinitely.
Edit: Nevermind, your post seems to have completely changed. I suppose you're just afraid this will translate into Xenophobia against [presumably] people like you.
how is this any different than rich white dot com yuppies pushing lifelong latino or black residents out of San Francisco? am i supposed to feel sad for them, or sad for the white people getting pushed out of vancouver by rich asian people?
the answer is i don't really feel sad for either group. i'm sure it's sad if you're the one being pushed, but hey, apparently it happens to everyone.
Beauty is in the eye of the beholder. One might inquire what the First Nations think about white man's towers of glass and Vancouver Specials in what used to be beautiful temperate rainforest...
Only if your vast assumption about China is correct, which it isn't. Their economy is in free-fall.
China's imports just collapsed by 19% in January, exports collapsed by 11%. Trillions of dollars of capital is rapidly fleeing their economy. Their government is in the midst of an extraordinarily violent and widespread crackdown on individual liberty, murdering billionaires and disappearing high-level executives and journalists. And they're going to have to dramatically devalue their currency, which will have the effect in real terms of slicing their economy down to size, including their wealth.
I'm not worried about your premise in the least.
This one at least mentions disappeared billionaires (if the first 3 do, I missed it):
http://www.cbsnews.com/news/chinas-crackdown-on-graft-media-...
But that could be detainment. And it doesn't go into executives.
Of course you are right, I was just being lazy, but I was trying to be smarter about it than typing an obvious search into Google and reading dozens of articles with the hope that I found one informing me about the claims made by someone I've in the past observed to be interested in the news.
Where can I read about this? Of course if it's true, I could find a zillion dumb stories about it from various locations, but maybe you know a good, insightful, deep writup somewhere?
I'd never heard of this, so I am really fascinated.
EDIT: From a co-worker, the chairman of China is an old-school traditionalist Maoist who thinks all this Capitalism and Democracy BS has gone too far, and it's time to purge it all and have another cultural revolution. Still no good hard evidence links.
Not to mention people in London usually complain about the wealthy Russians and Saudis these days
We detached this subthread from https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=11105754 and marked it off-topic.