Tracking North Korea’s Kwangmyongsong-4 Satellite Using OSINT
phasenoise.livejournal.com
phasenoise.livejournal.com
I'm not sure what is more likely; an NK that goes all first strike, or gets a bit too ambitious in launching satellites without participating in the appropriate international processes and triggers a Kessler Syndrome event in Earth orbit.
North Korea notified the ITU a few days before the launch but the information provided was incomplete (they didn't include the frequencies the satellite will be using).
They expect it to have a four year life, by the way.
According the the article, the satellite has made no detectable transmissions.
1: http://koreajoongangdaily.joins.com/news/article/Article.asp...
This makes me think of a movie plot: A rogue nation is suspected of preparing an ICBM launch, but moments after launch it becomes clear that the trajectory will take the payload into orbit and the world breathes a sigh of relief. That is, until a spy discovers that the satellite contains a nuclear weapon and is designed to deorbit a few months later and land in Washington DC...
That one is called "One Second After", a good read.
And there's precedent too: the Kwangmyongsong-1 deorbited almost immediately, but the launch was still hailed in the NK press as a total success, up to and including broadcasting songs extolling the virtues of Kims.
May not be true. KMS-2 supposedly played some songs for us. But wikipedia is not certain.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kwangmy%C5%8Fngs%C5%8Fng-2#The...
I doubt you could fit enough PV cells on a TubeSat to power a FM transmitter that could be heard on earth with standard equipment.
Also local transmitters are either omnidirectional, or it's a few wide-angle antennas that need to send the signal over hills / through buildings, etc. From space you could easily do only ~20 degrees and there's practically nothing in your way.
For comparison, LEO weather satellites send data at around 6-7W (not kW).
Why does the article quote North Korea's "right" to explore space in a peaceful manner?
Just wondering.
It's not like plenty of other states are putting military satellites in orbit without asking anyone for permission.
Because if you run through the street, it's normal. If you run through the street shouting that you're exercising your right to run through the street in a peaceful manner, it's being super suspicious. (like naming state-controlled newspaper "The Truth") Also because everyone is aware they're experimenting with serious weapons and act as if they are disconnected from consequences, so it's worth paying attention.
http://www.cnn.com/2016/02/07/asia/north-korea-rocket-launch...
One suspects that pretty much everybody in the NK leadership is aware of the last few decades of international sanctions.
Because most countries view it as a cover for an ICBM program. Anything that can launch a satellite into orbit can carry a nuke to the other side of the world.
>Why does the article quote North Korea's "right" to explore space in a peaceful manner?
Doesn't it have that right? Who is to say North Korea can't launch satellites?
This is a tricky thing for other countries to navigate. We really don't have the right to tell them they can't have satellites or nuclear power. Other countries collectively launch satellites every week or so, and there are 438 operating nuclear reactors.
On the other hand... nobody trusts the Norks, and with good reason. I guess it's like interpersonal communications - reputation matters.
And for everyone sarcastically wondering why the US gets a pass, I'm pretty sure there was a lot of criticism at the time over the US's (and Soviets') nuclear buildup.
Particularly after Libya. When the US invaded Iraq the Libyans decided the best way to avoid the same fate was to accede to demands from the West. They gave up their nuclear program, paid compensation for Lockerbie, and generally stopped messing with other countries.
And when it was convenient, we (mostly the UK and France, but the US too) provided the air power to overthrow the Libyan government. Kadaffi himself was tortured to death.
If you're Kim Jong Un, what lesson do you draw from that sequence of events?
I'm sure it hasn't been handled well, but the answer isn't to just welcome them into the community of nuclear nations and applaud every time they conduct a weapons test.
All things being equal, the choice is between the US' nukes, and the US' nukes aimed at NK's nukes, and NK's nukes aimed who knows where (not necessarily just as the US.)
As mentioned in one of the other replies -- sure, I can't fault a government for wanting to pursue nukes and space-launch capability. History has shown that you're either a US-ally, a nuclear power, or largely powerless over your country's destiny.
That doesn't mean I want adversaries to have the same tech as I do. So, the condemnations make perfect sense. It's all a game.
There hasn't been much trouble getting other countries to put pressure on North Korea. The trouble is that North Korea is already so isolated that it just doesn't work. Their whole national philosophy is based around self reliance.
...other countries except China, the important one. North Korean products (legal plus things like drugs and counterfeit cash and weapons) are shipped overland and out through China's ports. The Chinese sell oil to North Korea at below market rates. Plus luxury items for the people in charge. If China decided to play ball the North Korean government could not survive.
I was asked, very straightforwardly, by a woman I met,"Why does Ronald Reagan want to destroy the world with nuclear weapons?"...I replied that I doubted very much that he did...
The U.S. has certainly received scrutiny abroad...
Because 18 million reasons.[1] When so many people are always on the brink of famine, you can stop "playing war" and you can help your people in need.
[1]http://reliefweb.int/report/democratic-peoples-republic-kore...
As for the "it's an ICBM test!" crowd - bollocks. That's like saying the Boeing 747 was a test to see if manned flight is possible - total overengineering.
Also, for context, what exactly do folks think soyuz goes into space on? A magical peace rocket? No. It goes up on an R-7, which is an ICBM - the very first developed, in fact. That nasty ICBM technology has kept the ISS running.
The Mercury programme redstone rockets that put Americans in space - also ballistic missiles that had had warheads replaced with crew capsules.
Should America and Russia have been condemned by the world? By the standards being applied here, yes.
So, shake your fist all you like, but regardless of their politics this is a technical coup, and I congratulate them on a successful launch.
Not true. The North Koreans aren't at the point yet where they can miniaturize nuclear bombs, so if they're going to make a system that can deliver nuclear warheads, it's going to need to be something like this.
If anything, NK rockets are a very handy excuse for Japan to re-arm itself (or continue arming itself, depending on how you look at it), and I can't imagine China liking its prospect. Meanwhile, South Korean government is already discussing plans to introduce THAAD (whatever that is) into SK, and apparently China is pretty upset about that, too. Sigh.
There's quite a bit of evidence for nuclear armed US warships calling at South Korean ports, but US ships already have ballistic missile defenses.
Honestly, I don't see what difference a missile defense would make to SK, when North Korea can set Seoul in fire with artillery.
At least I understand that having a missile defense system right in front of China will help the US in its geopolitical game against China. What I don't understand is why our politicians think it's a good idea to act as a conspicuous pawn in this game.
While I agree the North Koreans can do a tremendous amount of damage to Seoul with artillery, these are really calculations on the strategic, nuclear level. The North Korean conventional ballistic arsenal is too small to matter very much.
What they're really worried about is South Korea developing the capability to stop the North Koreans from delivering a nuclear bomb. The Chinese are probably thinking the US is more likely to nuke the North Koreans if we don't believe they can retaliate effectively.
Still, it doesn't make much sense to me. If we were to make a first strike on North Korea we would get their nukes with a pretty high degree of confidence. Not that we would anyway, but the strategic consideration there is China's response, not North Korea's.
Doubtful at this level. The North Korean missile systems it sold to Syria (and Iran) in the early 2010s were NK development of earlier Soviet systems[1].
[1] http://www.theguardian.com/world/2013/jul/18/history-north-k...
1. Seoul is reachable even by conventional weapons from NK
2. China uses NK to manipulate the west.
3. NK govt has millions of their own citizens as hostage( most of them willingly so).
4. There is no proof that NK is planning to follow up their saber rattling with real attacks.
Also, they are weak as heck, and can't realistically attack anyone without being annihilated.
The continuous rhetoric viz-a-viz NK, both from their side and the West is quite ridiculous to behold.
Probably as long as it takes for someone to figure out a way to do it without watching Seoul get leveled.
My understanding of satellite coms is that many satellites are of the "relay" class, and use TDRS--Tracking and Data Relay Satellite--to bounce signals from satellite to satellite when a ground station is not in line of sight...NASA, for instance...
I wonder what the N. Korean coms protocol is...?
That said... it's passing right over me in a few minutes, so I'll be out monitoring the 4xx freqs :)
Edit: in case anyone was wondering - nothing exciting happened. No sign of new signals during a perfect pass: https://i.imgur.com/rMC6gIE.png (at least not at those freqs they used previously)
Three years ago they put a satellite in orbit...orbit is decaying for that one...
Of course, there's quite a bit of speculation that they're more interested in testing rockets than orbiting a functioning satellite...
http://www.reuters.com/article/us-northkorea-missile-idUSKCN...
That seems unlikely to be the reason but I don't know much about how satellites are programmed. On the terrestrial plane a $5 raspberry pi with free software can encrypt and decrypt secure communication. It's trivial and cheap to encrypt.