"I really appreciate the work you do and think you do deserve a 20% bump, but I am confident HR will shut this down becase of [budget/end of year/upcoming org changes/bad lunch yesterday]. We'll do our best and get back to you [soon/never]."

Another big one is the "We are locked by HR on base comp, but we'll be sure to make you whole at year end!". When year end comes you dont get paid anyway (if they know you won't leave).

Would love to find a stress free counter to these :)

EDIT: Ultimately, IMO, you must be ready to walk out when negotiating a raise. Otherwise you won't get anything material.