Not because I think they're not evil enough to do it, but because that kind of money-making scheme just doesn't scale.
Also, whenever they've sued one or two people, people's eyes will open and they'll just use an other codec. No big deal.
As a means to make money, that strategy simply sucks. A more likely turn of events is that licensing H.264 becomes quite a bit less good of a deal when H.264 has truly established itself. But even then they're not going to sue millions of people, because that doesn't scale, they're going to sue big vendors and service providers.
Certainly, that's not great either. But no, MPEG LA are not coming after "_you_".