Tesla Motors' Model S Is Crushing Premium Car Market | Hacker News Reader

Tesla Motors' Model S Is Crushing Premium Car Market

learnbonds.com

50 pointsdoener61 comments

I guess it depends on what you count as a premium car. 5 Series, E-Class, Lexus GS and similar premium cars crush the Model S in sales.

Sure, the Tesla is arguably more "premium" than the 5 Series and its competitors. But it's also hard to argue that the Model S is as premium as an S-Class.

Yep. The problem is Wall Street won't have anything to say about Tesla until after the Model 3 production ramp is well underway. The bets are already locked in. We just have to wait.

But the press has to write about something about in the intervening three years!

I'm a fan of Tesla/Musk, but at a glance I have to question the validity of the comparison chart, which seems to exclude a lot of cars in the Model S's pricerange from all of the manufacturers. I'd be a lot more interested if this included all cars by the manufacturers above the Model S's $70,000 base price. Picking out one or two models misses that an absurd overabundance of models/options at every pricepoint is pretty fundamental to the auto market as it exists today. All of the makers are building an ever-expanding lineup, and the large sedan category listed here strikes me as a niche that's rapidly going extinct in the U.S., at least.

I very much support Tesla's spearheading of electic cars, but the thing that bothers me most is: how well do they work in colder climate?

I never seen functioning in cold climate mentioned by Musk or Tesla representatives. In my understanding, cold should be killing the batteries. If Tesla has met with considerable success in cold-proofing their cars, surely they would tell?

Tesla has a specific cold weather package and given that Norway is the biggest market for Tesla on a per population basis and second biggest in terms of absolute numbers, I'm guessing they work well enough in at least slightly colder climates.

yup. here in chilly Ottawa theres plenty of teslas doing just fine. -25C at times,

How is it affecting their range though?

There don't seem to any official numbers, but a drop of 25-40% seems to be a common range reported by owners. Of course 'cold' is a very relative term.

I've yet to see one here. I've heard of sightings but they aren't so common that you see them regularly.

I see them in downtown and rockcliffe park.

They should make a commercial driving down the Rideau Canal.

Tesla is huge in Norway because of a number of large tax advantages from income tax deductions, to free registration, etc.

That being said, they obviously wouldn't sell if they didn't work but I wouldn't look at the popularity there as endorsement of cold weather performance, other factors are at play.

> I wouldn't look at the popularity there as endorsement of cold weather performance

Wow. So tens of thousands of highly educated people in a cold climate country aren't a good enough indicator? What would be?

To be fair he has a bit of point. If you where choosing between a $200k car that's great all year round and a $120k car that was just as good (or better) during the summer month, but worse during the winter month, how much worse would the car have to be before you decided to go for $200k car?

>Wow. So tens of thousands of highly educated people in a cold climate country aren't a good enough indicator?

Educated people are the types of people that do a cost analysis taking into account tax incentives and choose the best value, even if cheap.

For example, Nissan Leafs are awful compared to other cars at the same sticker price and can hardly make it back and forth to work for a long commute. However, lots of people in the bay have them because:

* massive tax credits make it cheap

* it gets employees better parking at many offices

* free charging at many offices

* access to the HOV lane

Educated people make choices based on all the available information, not a single facet. For example, I imagine the massive[1][2] tax breaks in Norway for Tesla vehicles might sway quite a few people.

1: http://www.ibtimes.com/tesla-owners-norway-get-134000-tax-br...

2: http://jalopnik.com/heres-why-the-tesla-model-s-is-the-1-sel...

There are at least two plausible reasons Norwegians might not be a good indicator of how cold affects Tesla performance.

1. Almost 20% of the population of Norway is in the Oslo urban area. There could be a fairly large number of people who could get by reasonably without ever having to drive outside that area, and so would be OK with it if their car's range was reduced by cold.

2. The next half dozen or so largest population centers in Norway are also in the southern part of the country, as is Oslo. It looks like the Supercharger coverage is sufficient that any trip between the top several urban areas would have access to one every 70-100 miles. This could make reduced range due to cold acceptable for many people.

I imagine most of those sales are in Oslo and other areas in the south of Norway. Oslo is surprisingly warm for such a Northern latitude -- it rarely drops below -5C (23F) there.

I asked our Tesla rep the same when we made a test drive. He reassured us that it won't be a problem under warranty, because Tesla replaces all battery failures for free, and "who would drive a car for more than five years anyway? Just get a new one when the warranty expires."

We thanked him for his time and did not choose a Tesla.

(That was a few years ago, nowadays it's eight years. But still…)

> who would drive a car for more than five years anyway? Just get a new one when the warranty expires.

That sounds ridiculous to me but it's probably a pretty common sentiment with people who spend 100k on a car, considering there are lots of people buying 25k cars who do the same, despite it probably not being a wise financial decision.

Well, here in UK you structure the lease in such a way you pay 50% of the car's value over 3 years and then get a new one at the end(and just carry on paying). For example you can have a brand new Nissan Juke for like 150 pounds a month. If you make a decent wage it's crazy not to buy new.

Cars have steep deprecation over the first two years. After that, deprecation flattens out. When you continuously lease every two to three years, you're paying far more depreciation expense than if you kept the car longer or bought used.

It's still a value judgement. If you value having a new car every two to three years, which also means you won't be doing maintenance other than oil changes, then you might be willing to pay the extra money.

Yes, luxury cars are as much a fashion statement as they are transportation. Most owners will want to stay current and will trade the car after a few years even if nothing is wrong with it.

Owners just build in the monthly lease or loan payment to their cash flow budget.

I'm on the opposite end of the spectrum, I only buy used cars for cash and have not had a car payment in almost 20 years.

Don't forget that in the US (and UK, possibly) many of these cars are leased as part of senior employees' compensation packages.

But still what? How many gas engines and transmissions in comparable luxury cars will last 8+ years without significant cost? The Tesla warranty is 8 years but the batteries will last significantly longer they will just have less than 80% of max storage (I believe that is the warranty threshold).

The tesla powertrain as a whole should last a million miles or maybe more with nothing more than routine maintenance and some battery pack changes which will drop in cost over time. If battery pack changes get down to $5K (which seems very possible), and battery packs are usable for let's say 150K miles, then you get a car with a power train that runs for a million miles for about $45K in maintenance (add a bit more for tires and other incidentals) and then subtract the cheaper electric fuel cost. This is less than the cost to keep the power train running for a Mercedes S class for one million miles (which will probably require 4 or 5 transmissions and 4 or 5 motors to get to a million miles).

But realistically people don't repair 150K+ mile S classes because it would cost $30-40K to replace the tranny/engine plus all the other engine things while the car would be worth very little, so they junk it and buy a new car which means the cost of owning an S class for one million miles is more realistically the cost of owning 5 or 6 S classes.

An S-class drivetrain will last a lot longer than 150K miles if it's given its proper routine maintenance (fluid changes etc). 300K-500K miles not unheard of. Not to say that other parts of the car, e.g. climate control and other fancy gizmos will last that long, but Tesla will be no different in that regard.

An S-class may last that long, but nearly every other car in that segment won't. I think in that regard, Tesla will continue to carry an edge.

What would the total maintenance cost be over that 300k-500k period?

An SClass drivetrain costs a small fortune to maintain. In general, people who purchase a used S class are wanting the status at steep depreciation prices, and as a rule arent willing to pay the price of routine maintenance.

I see both sides of the argument. Buying a good used car for cash is probably a better investment financially. I personally don't trust the secondary car market to be honest with me that a car has been taken care of properly. Maintenance records can be and are faked. I generally don't mind paying more to have a newer and usually more reliable car with a warranty. I do usually drive them until they're paid off plus some time span, but in general its not very long, 1-2 years max.

In 8 years you'll be able to upgrade to a battery pack that's half the weight, which means it can be lower capacity, increasing your miles per dollar, while giving you increased range versus when you bought the car.

Because it will be smaller it could theoretically even be a free upgrade, depending on the recycling value of the old pack.

This is pretty normal for Luxury cars - I recall my wife getting pitched on a Range Rover and when she asked about gas mileage the salesman response was if you are worried about the gas cost this is not the car for you. But also the idea that you would keep a luxury car for more the length of the lease is generally understood(I thought) to be crazy you always trade in for the new and shiny...

Well, if I was buying a Range Rover I would absolutely go for either the V8 diesel or Supercharged 5.0L petrol. Seriously, if you spend so much money on the car, I wouldn't bat an eyelid at the running costs. I had a 4.4L V8 Discovery 3 and that thing did like 12mpg. Would never swap it for anything else, it was such a pleasure to drive.

> when she asked about gas mileage the salesman response was if you are worried about the gas cost this is not the car for you.

New world. I worry about gas mileage because of the impact to the environment - not because of the cost. I want a highly reliable, luxury performance car but I want it with a minimal cost to the environment.

"If you are worried about the environment, a range rover is not the car for you"

There are definitely many like you, but I think wanting a Range Rover negates that. It's a big beefy car with off-roading and powerful engine features that I doubt 90% of the owners use. Gas mileage is a cost of those features.

It's not just the batteries: heating the cabin takes considerable energy in -20C, but but the heat is "free" on fuel-burning engines.

Hopefully there will be more data available and released in the future, as Tesla and Nissan Leaf have been the best-selling cars in Norway for multiple years in a row.

For anecdata, an Uber driver with a Nissan Leaf told me recently that range on very cold days is about half of the summer range.

You pay for the heating in increased drag, via the front radiator grill, even when you don't actually want or need the heat.

Also worth noting that some, but not all, Leaf's have a more efficient Heat Pump based system which has less impact on the battery.

Cold does affect the batteries. However it's compensated by one nice feature of electric cars: they don't suffer the same kind of cold start problems as traditional cars. As long as the battery isn't dead, the electric engine will be ready to go immediately, regardless of whether it's +30°C or -30°C.

The other nice feature many electric cars have is that you can set them to turn on their heating at a pre-arranged time, and (assuming you've got it plugged in outside your home) it'll draw that power from the grid rather than the battery.

When is the last time you've had a cold start issue? I mean even in the coldest climates block heaters are put into place. Cold destroys battery run time, it's physics.

Since the advent of fuel injection, cold start is no longer really a problem for cars, assuming they have a good battery. Synthetic oil helps, it flows better when cold. And yes block heaters for extreme cold.

2 this winter with my motorcycle. Cold killed the starter battery. Less of an issue with cars, but the potential is definitely there.

Many times in upstate New York, and many more times on my motorcycle

Seeing a Tesla on the road is an everyday occurrence here in Calgary; they seem quite popular despite having only opened a store in the last year or so. There doesn't seem to be any issues with the cold.

20% Drop in performance as opposed to 50% in other EV's as reported by the cult following in Norway (https://youtu.be/fsLMlozXjhk?t=52).

Tesla and even EVs in general with battery thermal management (that is pretty much everyone each Nissan LEAF in USA) are working just fine under extreme conditions (cold / hot). Sure the temperature does affect battery range as much as 50%, but you can recuperate some of that via pre-conditioning - that is to warm the batteries to improve the chemistry.

I drive an EV myself and living in Northern NJ, temperatures can go below lower teens in some years. After a 30 minutes pre-conditioning, batteries get warmed up to 42F, which would certainly alleviate the range issue.

Additionally, ICE cars also suffer on range under cold conditions. [1]

[1]: http://www.fleetcarma.com/cold-weather-fuel-efficiency/

In my understanding, cold should be killing the batteries.

Well, depends on what you mean by that. If you're talking about long-term longevity, cold actually helps: lithium-ion cell capacities generally degrade more slowly in cold temperatures.

I own a Model S as my only car, and it's worked great for me in winter. Cold temperatures definitely impact range (although this is more due to the extra power requirements of heating the car than anything to do with the batteries themselves). I've experienced maybe a 15% range loss in winter, or maybe as much as 35% in really cold temperatures well below freezing. Shorter trips lose more efficiency because the car doesn't have time to warm up, but then shorter trips usually don't need as much range ;).

When the car gets 260+ miles of range on a charge in summer, then even losing 35% still leaves plenty of range for any situations I've found myself in during ~2 years of ownership.

Yes, I was primarily worried whether cold does permanent damage to the batteries, and whether running them in cold temperatures is actually within operational parameters/covered by warranty.

Ah, okay. So for lithium-ion cells that are not currently being used, they can withstand extremely cold temperatures with no issues. I believe Tesla used to have wording in their battery warranty that said they wouldn't cover battery damage if you left your car parked in temperatures continuously below -40F for over 24 hours without plugging it in, but that has since been removed (whether due to improved battery chemistry or something else, I'm not sure).

Very cold batteries can lose longevity if you charge them without heating them up first, but most electric vehicles have builtin battery heaters, temperature sensors, etc. If you plug in a car to charge, and its battery pack is too cold, the car will first use wall power to warm up the battery, then begin charging once it can safely do so.

I thought this was link bait but after a few searches it looks like 26,566 in 2015 figure is plausible [0][1]. That's kind of impressive! I thought it was still a niche market.

on a side note teslamotors.com is using Cold Fusion (cfm)?!

[0] http://files.shareholder.com/downloads/ABEA-4CW8X0/140267905...

[1] http://ir.teslamotors.com/events.cfm

Does anyone know about privacy in the model s. Is tesla always tracking your location and car stats? Is there a way to disable that?

unscrew the antenna connection?

but it probably buffers the data locally to upstream to tesla later when it cannot communicate

it's one of my imaginary dilemmas if I ever won the lottery and bought a Model X

it's not like you can run cyanogenmod on your tesla - yet

Is there a SIM card to pull out? I'm glad someone else shares my same imaginary dilemma.

I'm not sure why the car tracking me bothers me but a cellphone doesn't.

what bothers us is not the "right" people who have access to the tracking info but the wrong people

for example if the police wanted to be sure to stop all teslas that cross their jurisdiction so they could seize whatever you happen to have with you (or even the car itself) under civil forfeiture without arrest, warrants or even proof of crime, all they have to is program their stingrays to ping them when a tesla cell connection that the car uses for data comes into contact

I have other scenarios in my head too but I don't want to give them ideas for abuse

Do you have a cellphone? Pretty sure you can already be tracked. Even if they are turned off.

Best bet is to go an old car with no electronics, and wired phone to your desk. Oh and avoid any roads that have cameras that can plate scan. May want to wear a mask when you go to the mall too, face scanning tech is getting pretty good.

Irrelevant to the question.

>Even if they are turned off.

Citation needed.

>Citation needed.

>By September 2004, the NSA had developed a technique that was dubbed “The Find” by special operations officers. The technique, the Post reports, was used in Iraq and “enabled the agency to find cellphones even when they were turned off.”

http://www.slate.com/blogs/future_tense/2013/07/22/nsa_can_r...

Well the very rich, as in those can afford eighty to one hundred thousand dollar cars, usually have more than a few at hand. Tesla did well to market to both the rich crowd who likes toys, the environmental crowd who needs things to make them feel less guilt, and the techies who just love all things new and cool.

You don't crush a market with the volume Tesla has. Most of the big brands use these as cash cows. Put it this way, BMW makes a X5 and X6 which are effectively identical but the later makes 8k more profile and they sold a quarter million of them since inception.

When Tesla can deliver what people want to buy right now and not make them wait then they might be crushing the competition.

As for the 3 EV. Still not seeing it, it will obsolete the S if Musk's boasts are to believe and why would any company put out a car for less than half the price with the main key feature being the same, 200+ mile range? Tesla doesn't have the production capacity for it so who will be their partner? Or where will they get the billions needed to build the production line that can deliver in volume?

Good cars, not just sold on them being great. Sorry but 200-250 mile range in summer is not what I consider a replacement vehicle for stats, make as second vehicle or third.

If you live on a small island like the UK that range covers most trips. However I keep expecting someone to create a roof box range extender (combustion engine) that just charges the battery.

It will be interesting to see were the supposed Apple car will fit in, I imagine they will go after the low volume / high margin market to start.

Range extender as a add-on is an interesting idea. Could be done as a trailer also. But I imagine that people who can afford Teslas will either just rent as needed, or own a conventional car for longer trips.

BMW offer this as an extra when buying an i3, but really you want to use your Tesla with all it's autonomous driving all the time right!

"BMW i also offers additional mobility modules which allow even longer distances to be covered – for example a conventional BMW vehicle can be provided on a given number of days per year."

https://www.press.bmwgroup.com/global/pressDetail.html?title...

Reply on news.ycombinator.com