Problems Found at Theranos Lab
wsj.com
wsj.com
Maybe VC stronger connections with scientists, not just technologies when doing due diligence?
By the way this is a non sequitur but I find it poetically ironic that Theranos HQ is located on Page Mill Road where WSJ's Silicon Valley branch used to be located back in the day.
The sad thing is, this seems to be an increasingly common strategy in a certain segment of the business world, and it brings value to nobody ultimately - it just separates optimistic investors who just see a wunderkind and incredible new technology from their money.
I propose that this is the majority of startups and an even higher percentage of companies generally.
I even wrote about that distinction last week (https://medium.com/@andrewkemendo/startups-need-to-start-val...) and the response was basically: The only way anything should be evaluated is based on return.
Very few of us actually give a shit about doing something novel.
Most novelty presents outside of business in general, including startups. Startups generally are applying the novelty (that is no longer novel) that is perceived as potentially valuable to see if it actually is.
Ideally, startups should be focused on doing something _well_, rather than doing something _novel_. To the extent that novelty occurs, it should be a side effect of that objective.
There is certainly room for disagreement, but all of the "high tech startups" that make up the startup zeitgeist, were exactly that.
That might be the ethos, but it isn't the reality. Most startups aren't first movers, and most of the ones who succeed aren't either.
Throwing in "in the sense of adoption rate" is kind of silly though, no? Every mom & pop shop has its own unique process that hasn't been widely adopted.
I swear, those Zappos shoes are just like the ones you get on other web sites.
I'm not talking about those, and it's not even necessary to be a first mover so long as the startup is overhauling how things get done outside of the current dominant market leader.
I'm talking about Microsoft, Uber, Amazon etc... the ones who have literally changed the way people live.
Those are the ones that actually held up the ethos.
...or they road a wave...
You didn't mention Walmart. ;-)
Uber has had a number of competitors, back in their day when they were "changing the world", so did Microsoft & Amazon. Hell, Microsoft's operating system ride started with an operating system they bought from someone else.
If you grow at a crazy fast rate to become a household name, you inherently are riding some kind of wave change. I don't think that was what the MIT Microfluidics PhD friend was referring to as "novel". If you want to call that "novel", then you are going to have a much harder time making the case that Theranos isn't trying to be novel.
Well they are the ones being disrupted currently. They did it in the 80s and 90s to Sears and the rest.
you are going to have a much harder time making the case that Theranos isn't trying to be novel.
I actually think Theranos is trying to be novel, my initial response was that maximizing value isn't something new in the valley. I have no clue on whether they are or not in reality, but they portray themselves as actually making new technology - my guess is that they just can't do it and are trying to buy time.
Well, from an investor's perspective, doing anything novel is fraught with risk, and growing the value of the company is what feeds my ROI. If there is a way to grow the value without taking that risk, they ought to do it. Be novel only when necessary.
When founding a new organization, you have a choice of making it for-profit, or non-profit. If you choose for-profit, you are making a statement about your priorities; when you take VC money, the term sheets are very clear about the ambitious ROI you are going for.
Unfortunately I have yet to see a non-profit or FOSS bring widespread changes to the way people live and work - so we are kind of stuck for a while with this model eh?
If correct, anyone have a legitimate rationale for Theranos doing this?
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Comprehensive_metabolic_pane...
"The tests are performed on machines based on the AutoAnalyzer invented in 1957."
Is there some reason that this should cost $300 58 years later? No Moore's Law in medicine?
That's like saying that modern PCs are based on the IBM 360 architecture from 1964. To the extent it's true, it's true in a way that makes sense only to a tech-illiterate journalist.
I suspect that what UCSF is charging Theranos includes a substantial markup on the actual test cost + overhead.
PS: The WSJ article is more of an effort by Walgreens to do damage control and try to distance themselves from Theranos. Most likely their brand took a hit from this association. (also, it looks like Walgreens loaned Theranos $50mil for this deal)
This is what we call a bleeding unicorn.
I am the last person who wants to defend Theranos, but theoretically if there are only a finite number of ways for tissue contaminants to enter a sample, these contaminants could be corrected for with statistical methods and accurate results could still be possible.
It may just be that their "nanotainer" tests may only be viable for boolean tests like their herpes test (herpes DNA present - yes / no).
How do you statistically compensate for a sample size of one, or zero?
The issue here isn't contaminants in the sample, it's the markers (i.e., what is being tested for) in the sample. If marker isn't uniformly distributed, then these small samples might not even find it in them.
[1]: http://www.fastcompany.com/3028159/a-broken-place-better-pla...
When there's a possibility that she dresses in a certain way in order to subconsciously convince people that she's a maverick visionary, or when she lacks that intent but it probably had that effect, I think it's justified (but not needed). And a defined masculine jaw would probably help you raise money, just like it helps you get dates.
Random depressing link: https://www.insidehighered.com/news/2016/01/05/new-study-fin...
Obviously I wasn't referring to the clause about her attire.
> And a defined masculine jaw would probably help you raise money
Absolutely, but that was not my point. The point is that if the matter of appearance is commonly brought up when a woman is involved but rarely when a man is, then there's a problem. If the matter of Agassi's jaw had been brought up as a likely reason for his ability to fool (or not) investors as often as Holmes's natural physical appearance comes up, I wouldn't have said a thing.
I'm not objecting at all to the likely hypothesis (perhaps a well-supported theory by now) that physical appearance matters a lot in all sorts of circumstances, but to the tendency to bring up physical appearance as a significant cause for success only (or almost only) when discussing women, and when the actual amount information supporting this hypothesis in both cases (of men and women) is similarly nonexistent (and possibly similarly likely in both cases).
Yes. And now it's a bit circular: here appearance was heavily commented on when theranos was starting and beginning to raise money; and so now when people write about Theranos they keep mentioning it.
If women were only truly able to pull-off "a Holmes" (i.e., con male investors out of their money using their sexual charms), maybe that threat would finally get investors to start seeing sexism as a serious problem.
The only thing that's bugging me about your solution to sexism, is that according to that logic, women should be at a great advantage when raising money from VCs (unless you also claim that their natural lack of cunning offsets that advantage), yet in practice we see the exact opposite. So it's unclear to me how -- without any other information on investors' reasoning -- femininity could be at all mentioned as an advantage when fundraising, while data shows it to be otherwise.
No, I'm not saying that at all, and my point was completely unrelated to sexism. You can be entirely un-sexist and still be subconsciously influenced by the attractiveness of the opposite sex (in case of heterosexuality; applies correspondingly to homosexual people). It's a natural bias which we should be aware of and recognize in ourselves, so that we can compensate for it.
My point was that the majority of SV's VCs are male (and presumably mostly heterosexual, like the rest of the population), so it is plausible that Holmes' gender and looks influenced VC decisions to a certain degree.
Even though I'm all for using your weaknesses as strengths, getting back what's owed to you, etc, I'm seriously doubtful that "pullin'a 'olmes" is a cause for celebration. If anything, it tarnishes the image of female founders in the long term, and at best its short sighted revenge. There's a lot more good to be had if there were female founders publicly pulling a Zuckerberg or a Gates, and I'm sure there will be.
If you read testimonials of female entrepreneurs online you will see that while investors' attraction towards them may manifest itself in several ways, increased chance of investment is generally not one of them.
Though I'm also unsurprised that looks are mentioned about when males talk about female founders. I don't think it's meant maliciously, it's an error of habit. There's probably a purpose built part of my brain just of evaluating womens looks, and that bubbles up. But calling it out seems appropriate, it has little to do with the discussion.
But investors investing less into female founders despite them being less likely to be swindlers/more likely to be better founders is a very interesting topic. That goes against their stated purpose, why would they do that?
My personal hunch is that it's that bit of gut feeling that fills in the blanks when metrics run out that is screwing over female founders. When faced with a decision we have insufficient knowledge on, our minds extrapolate from past experience. We look at past events or knowledge that may be applicable, things we've heard, come up with a heuristic answer.
Now the thing is, investors don't know of that many successful female founders, matter of fact, neither do I, at least nowhere close to the number of successful male founders I know of. Those mental queries that would otherwise inspire confidence come up blank, the tally gets taken, and for reasons that don't really matter, the female founder gets short charged.
By the way, this process also works against other social groups and in other situations. Name 10 successful black founders off the top of your head. Chinese-american CEOs (ayy bamboo ceiling). What's your opinion on stay-at-home dads and male nurses? It's insidious, isn't it?
Really, there's only so much we can do against it though. One is being aware of such biases in ourselves and pushing against them, and the other much slower long term solution, adjusting people's mental databases to better reflect modern realities. I guess we need stronger role models for women in technology, ones that do stand against long held beliefs.
After all, female pilots don't seem strange (given Erhard), female programmers don't seem that strange (because of Hopper and other very talented women), female CEOs seem a lot less strange nowadays (example that pops in my mind is Marissa Meyer), but female tech founders still do. But we'll fix that in due time.
...and it would require completely ignoring the data to think that young, attractive women do well in front of VC's.
There's a real world out there where female founders are fighting to get in the door.
Can you show me this data, so that I can stop ignoring it?
This is a genuine request, I'm not trying to be snarky.
It shows 4-9% of VC funding goes to companies with female founders, roughly tracking the percentage of women at top VC firms.
People need evidence to accept this blatant reality of the tech scene, but making assertions about young, attractive women being blindly handed billions of dollars...
Appearance no doubt helps. The notion that it is a significant enough factor to be worth mentioning here doesn't appear to be borne out in the allocation of VC funds.
This WSJ article is full of hot air, and actually has nothing of substance to say. The hilarious phrases 'according to people familiar with the matter' and 'a person familiar with the matter' appear nine times in the article, when discussing outcomes that potentially 'could' happen if other things that haven't happened so far actually happened.
But thanks for putting into words what everybody is really thinking, but doesn't want to say out loud. It boggles my mind just how much people really want a pretty girl to fail in the tech business.
However, they do care that she may be selling snake oil. When someone raises funding on the promise of Amazing Technology[tm], and then fails to deliver that technology in a way that satisfies the usual industry standards, it's a fair concern.
>"according to people familiar with the matter"
This is standard WSJ boilerplate when it uses anonymous sources. There's nothing "hilarious" about it. It's neither unusual nor unfamiliar.
You have a handful of US Senators, a couple of CEOs from megacompanies like Bechtel and Wells-Fargo, the ex-director of the CDC, and two ex-Secretaries of State including Henry Kissinger.
How many other 19 year-old college dropouts can put that board together?
Having this group in place seemed to send the message of "don't worry, we'll just tunnel through those hurdles" when it came to all the red tape.
Please. I'm sure Stanford has an even better looking blond blue eyed dropout every year. If that somehow could get you billions in investment, silicon valley would be filled with founders who looked like pharmaceutical reps.
Of course I have no reason for believing that. Hopefully I'm wrong. But my spidey sense is tingling. Am I miscalibrated?
Far more likely is that their is a growing belief that they are not "fake it 'til you make it", but rather just "fake it", and a fear that if left unaddressed, this will harm the ecosystem as a whole.