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Comment by ars | Hacker News Reader

Correct. They don't prevent, they reduce. Used at typical rates, 18% of women will still get pregnant every year (reduced from 85% - it's a large reduction, but I would not call it prevent).

For a situation like this, with (according to geertj's calculations) 40% chance of severe birth defect, that's far too much.

Condoms are not the solution here - in fact I think they do more harm than good because people think they work (like you did), while they are not sufficiently effective.

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Google search: how effective is a condom

Result: When used consistently and correctly, condoms are 98% effective in preventing pregnancy and are the only form of birth control that also can prevent STIs.3,7,8 This is why it's important to follow directions for correct use.

Somebody is lying.

Read up on perfect use vs typical use. Quoting numbers from perfect use is very misleading.

>>When we talk about the effectiveness of any kind of contraception, including condoms, we reference two different groups of figures. One is perfect use: that means a person always uses their method and always uses it correctly. These results are often figured via lab studies, where perfect use can be verified. The other is typical use: how your average person generally uses a method. For instance, it’s typical use for women to take a birth control pill late or miss one now and then, have a patch slip off, or only put a condom on after intercourse has already begun. Typical use rates also include not using a given method at all. In other words, the typical use rate for condoms is about people who, when asked what method of birth control they use, say condoms, even if they only use a condom one out of every three times they have intercourse. - See more at: http://rhrealitycheck.org/article/2009/10/02/get-real-how-we... <<

So in essence a condom works if you use it and if you don't use it and get pregnant it is not very effective. WTF? At this point I'm cursing for wasting my time.

No. Condoms can tear, are more effective when also used with a spermicide, etc.

"Perfect" use increases effectiveness, but even if you aren't just derpy about it, they can still fail.

I routinely see this assumption that birth control works perfectly if you just use it, and that simply isn't true.

No one is lying. Parent's 18% is the figure for male condom use in reality, vs your 2% for consistent and correct use.

The point is that if you have an entire population of people who say that their primary method of contraception is male condom, you should expect an unplanned pregnancy rate closer to ~18% per year than 2% per year.

Those numbers are completely useless because they don't question the reliability of condoms but the more social aspects of it (eg: how good are people on average in using them). If you are capable of using birth control then they will work just fine to prevent a pregnancy.

They're also percentages with no actual absolute numbers. People often interpret percentages while falsely assuming that other things remain constant. For example, if condom use is accepted and people come to believe condoms work, they may be more likely to have sex more frequently because their fear of contracting STDs and pregnancy have decreased. This means that the failure rate no longer pertains to the original frequency of sexual intercourse but the new one. This way, the number of actual failures (vs. just the rate) may exceed the original, and with it the number of abortions. This way, condoms actually enable the behavior whose consequences they were intended to limit. Yay, big picture.

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