I think Uber or Airbnb will stay and become huge, but they might both be overvalued.
I think Uber or Airbnb will stay and become huge, but they might both be overvalued.
Based on that criteria, Uber & AirBnB should be on top of this list, followed by Palantir and Stripe. Zenefits has not really shown the type of defensible traction that Uber / AirBnB have (right now they are simply a rapidly growing insurance agent with a difficult-to-scale direct sales model). I would not add Spotify to this list - bad margins, and hard to defend against Google / Apple.
Netflix has two major advantages: (1) consumers are far more likely to accept a limited video catalog than they are a limited music catalog, and (2) Netflix has spent a lot of money developing their own content. Could Spotify do the same? Possibly, but probably more difficult to do so.
I think Spotify will in the future generate consistent low profits, much like a utility, and their valuation will likely reflect that.
So agree with you completely.