Comment by drzaiusapelord | Hacker News Reader

Comment by drzaiusapelord | Hacker News Reader

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Is this so bad? Falling into something of a European-type rut with permanent 8-12% unemployment and modest GDP gains? I remember the 90s. Everyone was buying shit non-stop. What kind of life is that? Sure it created jobs and growth but to the ludicrous end where we refused to accept the gravy train was ending. I remember Bush 43 pleading for Americans to "go back shopping" the black friday after 9/11 when the writing was finally on the wall. Its perverse.

I think if we want a shorter work-week, more holidays, and more leisure then we have to concede a bit on demand/buying shit. The endless race for growth eventually hits the laws of diminishing returns hard. Worst of all, automation is here in significant ways now. A lot of jobs are going to be gone forever with very limited new growth to make up for it. If I'm automating the responsibilities of hundreds of employees, I just don't see what can make up for it. A handful of devs, managers, sysadmins, etc can replace a significant number of jobs nowadays.

I think aging Western economies have a long adaptation process ahead of them to later stages capitalism and this is one of the first signs this move is now mandatory. How we handle automation, slow growth, etc will be the political fights of the future. We're already seeing some implementations of Guaranteed Minimum Income and other things completely unthinkable 30 years ago.

"Is this so bad? Falling into something of a European-type rut with permanent 8% unemployment and modest GDP gains? I remember the 90s. Everyone was buying shit non-stop. What kind of life is that?"

It was a pretty fabulous kind of life. People felt rich, there were shiny new buildings going up everywhere, the government's budget was running at a surplus, there was a general feeling of optimism and hope for the future. Given the choice, I'll pick that over trying to come up with reasons why our current situation of general political and economic misery is somehow morally better.

But obviously the '90s were not sustainable. What we are going through today is the payback period (with interest) for Greenspan's economic policies.

"But obviously the '90s were not sustainable."

Sorry, it's not obvious to me at least. Can you explain why they weren't sustainable?

You are certainly right that it was fun.

But basically the hypergrowth of the '90s was borrowed from the future. All policy was good if GDP grew. Greenspan noodled on the problem--"irrational exuberance"--but unfortunately became convinced the existing pyramid scheme was working. He's since publicly expressed regret over a ton of those decisions.

While statistics are tricky, I think there's a decent chance your entire premise - that we have all had a modest cut to our hours in exchange for less consumer goods - is untrue.

http://www.mybudget360.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/07/index_...

http://bigpicture.typepad.com/comments/images/wsj_prod_vs_ho...

https://qzprod.files.wordpress.com/2014/09/average-annual-ho...

especially for allegedly supervisory positions with job security & a salary, which no longer have to pay overtime; Hours worked per full-time employee has gone up, while part-time hourly positions have become much more common. Hourly jobs we now expect to work just enough that no benefits are offered (~39.9 hours), and double up to 78.8 hours over two jobs if we want to actually support a family... the better half of retail jobs will respect that sort of arrangement, while the worse half will require you to work 25-39 hours virtually "on-call", coming in whenever a gap presents itself, if you want to achieve that many hours.

The death of the labor movement has not helped the situation.

The best I could find to support your argument is

http://b-i.forbesimg.com/theapothecary/files/2013/07/PTEcono...

http://ibankcoin.com/news/files/2013/04/labor-force-particip...

Given our Protestant work ethic and deference to corporations, it seems like we're more likely to approach the Japanese/East Asian workaholic model to the grey late capitalist future, sadly.

"a shorter work-week, more holidays, and more leisure"

You do see that there is a price to pay for that, right?

Future generations pay the cost, not you. So you are deciding to imperil people who are children, or who do not yet exist. There's a clear line to draw from "more holidays" and "more leisure" to "fewer diseases cured" and "E.U.-style fiscal crisis."

The American tradition of working away continuously, hacking away, jamming hard on a challenge all night is really, really a good thing. It's saved the world a few times. It's good.

>So you are deciding to imperil people who are children, or who do not yet exist.

I'd much rather have my grandkids enjoy a 24 hour workweek and be surrounded by automation than continuing the keep up this house of cards with its 50-60 hours work weeks, endless stress, constant retraining, constant layoffs, endless warfare for resources, etc to keep the status quo afloat.

Its clear to me that Bush 43 was our last hurrah for the old way of doing things. Automation is just eating the world and denying that is just not going to help us.

>The American tradition of working away continuously, hacking away, jamming hard on a challenge all night is really, really a good thing.

Creative people will always be this way. You're confusing values with jobs. The hardest and best projects in my life were done with zero exception of monetary gain. Ask any hacker. They'd be doing this shit anyway. Linus had no idea Linux would go anywhere, for example, and thought of his project as being largely academic at first.

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