Stats for the USA from the Bureau of Labor Statistics:
http://www.bls.gov/ooh/computer-and-information-technology/c...
1990 Number of Jobs 565,000
2010 Number of Jobs 363,100
2012 Number of Jobs 343,700
All kidding aside, the correct answer is still "China". Computer programming jobs follow employment in manufacturing. If employment in manufacturing is rising in one country, but falling in another, the computer programming jobs will be rising in the first country but falling in the second country.
This year, even the Chinese economy is slowing down. But it is important to keep the long-term in mind. Over the last 30 years there has been a dramatic decline in the number of all types of computer programming jobs in the USA.
There is a tiny subset of the industry that is growing, and we associate these with the startups in San Francisco and New York. But so far these startups have not created enough jobs to offset the jobs lost due to other factors.
This suggests that there must be a vast reservoir or programmers who would like programming jobs, but they can't work as programmers because the jobs have disappeared.
If the numbers were smaller, you could argue that the loss of jobs was due to inaccuracies in the way Bureau of Labor gathers statistics. But the drop from 565,000 jobs to 343,700 is too large to be a spurious blip.