Comment by danieltillett | Hacker News Reader

Comment by danieltillett | Hacker News Reader

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It is not believable because it is comparing oranges to apples. It is comparing the revenue of the SF taxi industry (not the dollars going through the drivers hands) to the dollars going through Uber for some area of unknown size around SF.

It is also unbelievable if you try to do the bottom up revenue numbers. Uber claims to have 11,000 drivers in SF [1], but most of them are part time. This implies a monthly revenue per driver of ~$3800 at the $500 million revenue number. Actual data from surveying SF Uber drivers working more than 41 hours a week showed they only generated revenue of $2971 a month [2]. The drivers working part time (20 − 25 hours a week) only generated revenue of $1376 a month. I can’t think of a way of making the top down and bottom up numbers agree.

Edit. I fixed the broken link [1].

1. http://archives.sfexaminer.com/sanfrancisco/uber-releases-dr...

2. http://www.sfgate.com/business/article/Lyft-Uber-drivers-tur...

Unfortunately the first link doesn't appear to direct correctly. I'm still willing to think 500M is plausible, with Uber Black and SUV included (is it safe to say these professional drivers make more than 3000/mo on Uber?). Even if it's not quite 500M, or maybe they needed to flub the geography or numbers to get to that number, they're still generating huge sums of revenue in what is only one large metropolitan city out of hundreds around the world.

I have fixed the link. They do appear to be generating a large revenue out of the SF area (my best guess is their real revenue is somewhere between $40 and $50 million), but SF is a very unusual market that is particular suited to a service like Uber. How much it can be used to extrapolate into other markets is an unknown question.

The more fundamental problem is how much profit can they generate. Historically, the taxi industry is not one that has generated large profits without political protection (i.e. medallion limitations). It is very hard to see how Uber will be able to achieve monopoly level profits going forward. As I said in the beginning I think Uber is a great business that will make a lot of money, but it just isn’t worth investing in at its current valuation.

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