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you can bet that their next iteration will be wildly popular

No, you really can't.

Look at PS3 compared to PS2, GameCube versus nintendo 64, Saturn versus megadrive.

In fact it's practically an industry rule that you always fail after a successful generation of console! A betting man would reckon on the Xbox 3 being a flop.

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I wouldn't bet on it being a flop. In my opinion, the only unsuccessful Nintendo console was GameCube. NES, SNES, N64, Wii, all a success. PS1 was a success, so was PS2. I'm not really convinced of this industry rule you're talking about.

Wii reached an audience no console ever reached, thanks to the titles and controllers. I'm betting Project Natal will take over a big slice of that market, unless Nintendo really steps it up.

64 was definitely not the market leader. It may not have floundered like the Cube, but it wasn't ahead. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_video_game_consoles_...

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