My intuition is that current users of Perl 5 probably fall largely into two camps: using it because it looks like the best tool for the job or using it because it is the language of their soul.

People in the first group would switch if Perl6 looks like a better tool. Short of revelation the second group won't. Hardcore Perl programmers have had a long time to think about Perl 6 and come to their conclusions. It's not a community where evangelism is likely to make a difference these days. I don't think the Perl community is like the Python community for cultural reasons that stem from their histories.