That's a very good point. Seems to me that it applies equally well to movies: the first 3D animated movies were thought photorealistic in their day, but nowadays they look pretty dated.
To give some examples, take a look at these images created in Blender:
http://www.blenderguru.com/articles/24-photorealistic-blende...
The issue here - and the point being made - is that we are already at the stage where many CG images can fool even close observers, and we've been here for some time.
We've been passing around these "CGI OR REAL?!!!!" images for a few years at least, and when they are first created people really can't tell the difference, but yet somehow when people get used to the tech and revisit these images a few years down the line they look obviously synthesized.
Ditto older movies like Jurassic Park, whose cutting edge CGI of the time were convincing even when viewing frame-by-frame, but to savvy eyes appears downright obvious today.
So clearly "photoreal" is something we haven't reached yet. IMO the indicator that we've reached "true photoreal" is when an image rendered 5 years ago still holds up to fresh eyes.
I'd be interested to hear your take on the 'giveaways' on each of those images. I can see some on some of them, but not on all of them.
ps: I remember first time I ran Half Life, my computer was so slow I had to run in 320x200 with zero option, it was a pixel soup yet it sucked my soul. Rainbow 6 managed to lock me down for hours too. I understand the desire for more possibilities, but we've reached this level long ago, I'd say with the 2nd massive-city GTA.
The big challenge I see is not photorealism, but consistent photorealism. In the Sleeping Dogs example, the game's engine is optimized for its iconic scenes of rain-slicked Hong Kong backstreets, but the tricks it uses don't hold up well in other contexts.
For a long time, the game industry focused on higher resolution, more polygons, and higher framerates. I think now maybe there's more emphasis on textures, lighting, and physics. The trouble is, if you don't have a physically-accurate global illumination solution or physically-correct reflection, refraction, and shadows, there are many contexts in which "photorealism" is unattainable. For instance: shining a flashlight around a dark room, seeing your reflection in a shiny car, turning lights on and off and opening and closing doors in a dark building at night.
Year 2016: Photorealism in video games is around the corner...
Year 2026: Photorealism in video games is around the corner...
Write a bunch of new shaders - nobody notices anything. Write a good procedural content generator- suddenly applause. The gfx-race is over- it died a horrible death on the plateau beneath uncanny valley. Its a real shame, cause the technology invented is just so neat- but that is how it is.
Clothes is one weak point with real time CG today. Another is grass, trees.
There is a reason there is no green in those pictures, and they try to only draw people in rigid suits.
Where games struggle today is hair, skin, and soft fabrics, but there are already good implementations for those that should show up in the next generation game engines.
This will always been an iterative process, but there are times today (and I honestly feel like this just became the case within the past year or so) where games look like reality.
So far nothing meeting the Oculus reqs (970 GTX or better) will fit in a SFF PC, much less a laptop. Part of that is physical size, but 100W+ TDP for a graphics card alone is never going to be acceptable to most people, if only because of cooling problems and fan noise.
It's almost like there are many factors involved in launching a successful product.
This may be a very interesting piece of hardware but it's not something that will revolutionize gaming over night.
Rasterization with post processing tricks may be "cheating" but it still subjectively looks better than any raytracing based technology so far (in anything close to real time). Raytracing is mainly interesting for shadows, which can't be accurately simulated with rasterization. There are pretty shadow mapping tricks but no "one size fits all" solution exists.
Ray-tracing has a pretty limited use for photorealism, unless you have a lot of shiny surfaces and such. It can't model diffuse light bouncing off surfaces.
You mean real time ray tracing as it stand now correct? Ray-tracing in a general sense can simulate photography as a whole, just not efficiently (for now).
Ray tracing could in theory simulate interaction between a frequency of light and the frequency of of medium although the situations where that would be practical would be exotic.
Single bounce ray tracing isn't very interesting, what we want is real time global illumination such as with park tracing. For simple scenes this is possible on a gpu today, at least with low res and a reasonable amount of noise. If this chip can do with a million triangles what a gpu does today with a hundred, then it's very interesting (not saying it can).
Real time gpu PT today: https://www.shadertoy.com/view/4lfGWr
http://www.pcgamer.com/star-wars-battlefront-graphics-mod-ma...