Adobe flash's official blog on ipad
blogs.adobe.com
blogs.adobe.com
That said, the only true mass market commercial successes involving Flash are solutions for which equivalent alternatives exist or are very very close to existing. HTML5 solves the video dilemma that Flash was a nice, elegant solution for. In 2004 we were stuck in the quagmire of "Click here for QuickTime, here for Windows Media, or here for RealPlayer". It had a nice 5 year run but now an alternative exists.
IMHO, Flex is Adobe's last stand. Until recently AJAX user interfaces have been a complete pain to deal with. For the record, I prefer the HTML/CSS/JS approach, but implementing an interface using any of the existing frameworks save for SproutCore or Cappucino is a completely different experience to what Flash/Flex developers are used to. Once frameworks like SproutCore and Cappucino truly get mass market acceptance in the developer community (e.g., probably in 5 years time when MS comes full circle with ASP.NET implementing a sane implementation of web forms only using the MVC approach) I think Flash will die.
Apple is correct in the same way they were correct about the death of the floppy disk. They're about 5-7 years ahead of the competition and until then you'll have people complaining about the lack of Flash just the same way you had folks complaining that an iMac didn't ship with a floppy drive in the year 2001 (long after Apple ditched it and long after they were appropriate for sharing files).
That said, I'm firmly in the camp of those who'd like to watch Flash wither at the vine.
Still, I stand by what I said: show us a Mac Flash plugin that doesn't use ridiculous amounts of CPU, that doesn't drain my laptop's battery or peg a core at 100% just to show a few ads on the page. Show me something that doesn't require browser vendors to work around just to prevent browser crashes, and then maybe, MAYBE, I'll consider Flash on the iPad a good idea.
How Adobe can continue to do such a half-assed job with the Flash player on Mac and Linux, and then act all surprised and indignant when Apple shuts them down, I'll never understand.
Oh, and as for their native app generation – they can compile Flash apps to native code that doesn't run well except on the iPhone 3GS. If they can't make native iPhone apps that are fast enough to use, what makes anyone think they can make a flash plugin that is?
I'd buy it!
This is why popular devices without Flash are good. They make people think "Is it worth using Flash to enhance this site for some portion of my audience? And if I can deliver the same content without Flash is the added value worth the extra time and effort?"