Comment by secondtimeuse | Hacker News Reader

Comment by secondtimeuse | Hacker News Reader

To pre-empt anticipated comments Job Outlook "Growth" is change in number of people employed: From the source here are the numbers for other disciplines.

Software Developer Job Outlook, 2014-24 17% (Much faster than average) http://www.bls.gov/ooh/computer-and-information-technology/s...

Computer Hardware Engineers Job Outlook, 2014-24 3% http://www.bls.gov/ooh/architecture-and-engineering/computer...

Database Administrators Job Outlook, 2014-24 11% (Faster than average) http://www.bls.gov/ooh/computer-and-information-technology/d...

statisticians Job Outlook, 2014-24 34% (Much faster than average) http://www.bls.gov/ooh/math/statisticians.htm

computer-and-information-systems-managers Job Outlook, 2014-24 15% (Much faster than average http://www.bls.gov/ooh/management/computer-and-information-s...

Yet the article conveniently uses cherry picked data for arguing against H1B. The majority of the H1B are being awarded for above categories and not for electrical engineering.

The simple explanation is that it's cheaper to manufacture components in Taiwan, Korea and China. H1B is not causing electrical engineers to lose jobs, it's the fundamental economics of production that are stacked against the occupation.

According to these reports, starting salaries for CS graduates are about 4% lower in 2015[0] than in 2014[1].

The recent OPT moves by DHS is proof enough the government is all too willing to help employers in any way possible and isn't interested in actually helping citizens and green card holders fill these jobs.

[0] https://www.naceweb.org/uploadedFiles/Content/static-assets/...

[1] https://www.naceweb.org/uploadedFiles/Content/static-assets/...

For CS graduates, I see the 2014 Salary as $62,103 and the 2015 Salary as $65,004. Which is actually a 6% increase. The 2014 was a 6% increase over 2013. So more than 10% increase in two years. What are you seeing?

I'm comparing computer science majors, which is the majority (80% in 2015) of those in the computer science category. I think this removes outliers like someone getting a bachelors in computer science with a major in financial engineering at Cornell making 200k on Wall Street after graduation.

2014 67,500. 2015 65,004. Down about 3.7%, which adds up over time.

Either way, from my point of view, the software "profession" is dead in the water unless real change in the industry and our government happens.

Well, even in that case, the 2014 salary was a 6.4% raise over 2013. Unusually large increase. So, it certainly "didn't add up over time". Also, strange to read about software profession being dead in water. Pretty much all estimates from BLS show it to be the fastest growing job segment. Which fields (apart from healthcare) are doing better that software?

Software is the fastest growing field, but when you factor in 1.5% and 1.6% inflation in 2013 and 2014 (and use the salary numbers discussed in this thread), you get a real decrease of 1% between 2013 and 2015. So you're getting a salary decrease for the fastest growing profession in the US - a terrible sign. Why shouldn't salary be allowed to increase, especially when rents rose 27% in San Francisco?

> Why shouldn't salary be allowed to naturally increase

Because cost of labor (including salaries) compete with returns on capital, and, well, people who favor "capitalism" rather than, say, "laborism" tend to hold political (as a consequence of economic) power.

Market prices for anything are a random walk in the short-term. Let's look at some longer trends if we want to draw sound conclusions.

Salaries are not a random walk in the short term. A dip is significant.

Actually there was a 6% increase in salary between 2013 and 2014. And the "data" for 2015 is derived from mere 705 "# of Salaries".

There aren't any new recent moves by DHS regarding "OPTs". The proposed change in "STEM Extension", won't come into affect at least until mid 2016.

I compared 2014 to 2015.

In regard to DHS, the US court system found that DHS unlawfully created the rules for OPT in 2008 in backroom deals with industry lobbyists. When the court told them so, the DHS went in to "all hands on deck" mode to come up with a work around. (So far they've failed, putting ~130k OPT guest workers at risk of having to leave the country on Feb 12th 2016). Besides the question of what is DHS doing involving itself in student training programs and guest worker visas, but the other question is why wasn't what happened at Disney an "all hands on deck" situation? Where is the support for the citizens?

There are 62,000+ degrees in Computer Science alone awarded every year. With sample size 705 you are showing a decrease of 6% then p < 0.5. Further OPT program was established long before the "STEM Extension" came into effect during 2008. Finally in spite of STEM extension in place, the Software Developer jobs as well as salaries have recorded solid growth during 2008 - Now. Just because you became aware of the STEM program due to a judgement on a minor procedural issue, does not invalidates the robust job and salary growth over the last 7 years enjoyed by the profession. You are simply trying to map your flawed beliefs and sensational news reports to justify non existent decline.

https://nces.ed.gov/programs/digest/d12/tables/dt12_349.asp

http://www.forbes.com/sites/susanadams/2013/10/03/the-10-job...

Yeah we had major recent fire all the tech staff events both with Disney as well as a major utility company in CA.

> Where is the support for the citizens?

Why should citizens be treated differently when H1Bs pay the same income and other taxes as citizens? H1Bs even pay into social security, even though they are on a temporary visa.

Anyone who pays the same tax as citizens should be treated the same as citizens.

I'm pretty sure starting salaries at big companies are strictly increasing. There is just a larger increase in the number of lower paying jobs. Which may simply mean more CS job opportunities in more cities that have a lower cost of living then the previous average.

Finding truth in numbers is hard.

You can see the general trends in this article: http://www.bls.gov/opub/mlr/2013/article/occupational-employ...

One disturbing finding - in the higher income areas, the only areas with strong growth are in healthcare and tech/CS. Almost nothing outside of that.

What's the connection between electrical engineering and cheap soldering in China?

That's like saying it's cheaper to hire Chinese to type into a keyboard, so programmers are no longer in demand.

If you think hon hai precision industry co. ltd (aka foxconn) is merely doing "soldering" in China you ought to catch up with the market reality. Almost everyone I know who is employed at Apple (in California) with electrical engineering degree, goes on multi-month annual visits to Chinese plants.

You still haven't clarified this. Are they going there to supervise the manufacturing process or to learn from their peers? Is Foxconn doing EE design for Apple?

Apple recently opened a new R&D center in Taiwan. Which shows that not only production but also research and development can move / will eventually move to other countries.

http://www.macrumors.com/2015/12/16/apple-taiwan-factory-ole...

OP never mentioned cheap soldering - where did you get that from? The issue (as I understand it) is that the design and manufacture of most electrical components is happening offshore. The biggest fab in the world is in Taiwan. We aren't talking about cheap soldering, we are talking about the semiconductor work that drives most hardware.

We are starting to see a few hardware startups but most of the jobs created are still overseas as manufacturing happens abroad. Most of the EEs I know switched into CS fields because of reasons like this. I wonder where the future of EE lies.

OP said 'cheaper to manufacture'.

Cheaper to manufacture means something completely different from soldering. That's a huge and nonsensical leap you make there. Soldering isn't even the largest cost associated with electronics and semiconductor manufacturing.

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