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And that is, what I think is Rossi's biggest problem. Very showy, very secretive.

The explanation I've heard is that he has something which works (for some definition of works) but doesn't know how it works or why. And because of that he is walking around afraid that if too many details get out about how it works then someone smarter then him will jump in and patent/publish the why and then be forever known as the person who "invented" this technology.

I don't know if that is true, but listening to Rossi talk and what he has written it seems like it could be true.

But elephant in the room is that if you can produce a MW of usable energy out of this thing then why not run it 24/7 and generate your quarter million a year in revenue (pretty much any market will buy baseload power at $30/MWhr. Use your first quarter million to build another one in year two, then use the half million from year two to build two more for year 3 and use the million dollars you get in year 3 to build four more, and the two million dollars from year 3 to build 8 more. Etc. Easy to sell shares in a company that is doubling in revenue each year and will continue to do so until it reaches 25% of baseload power (1TW or about a billion a year in revenue).

Either way, the way in which Rossi's e-cat story is playing out it screams hoax not breakthrough. That has nothing to do with the "reputation" of cold fusion and everything to do with the difference between seeing breakthroughs get promoted and hoaxes get promoted.

Another possible explanation is:

He is really not very good at measuring energy input and heat output. He built something and confused himself into thinking it was producing more energy than it consumes. He took some money from investors to develop the technology. He spent much of the research money, eventually to realize that his device does not, in fact, produce energy. His investors now want their money back and he is concerned they are going to break his legs.

So at this point he has no choice but to maintain his original claims for as long as possible. Appearing now to be bumbling and incompetent may be preferable to appearing accurate and precise with measurements.

A reasonable guess, the only counter factual is that a number of people who are not fools seem to have convinced themselves that there is something there but they don't know what.

And as the article points out there are a number of labs around the world that have independently seen results that were anomalous with respect to the current understanding of how things should work chemically. So if nothing else there is a really good parlor trick in there somewhere, but even tricks need an explanation.

It's very common for people who are totally not fools to get sucked into free energy scams.

This is one of the better ones being demonstrated at the technical univeristy of Delft I believe: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mHW6b1aFPfU https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uKCEceWs-Gc

nice. how did it play out? has it been debunked?

This site has a lot of information http://peswiki.com/index.php/Directory:Muammer_Yildiz_Magnet...

There was some sort of plan in the works to have a model undergo a 30 day examination at a major European university. But (surprise surprise) there's no information to suggest that ever happened.

Another experimenter tried to replicate the device from the patent without success. http://peswiki.com/index.php/Directory:Muammer_Yildiz_Magnet...

Yildiz got involved in some sort of legal dust-up in Germany: http://pesn.com/2013/01/09/9602262_Yildiz_Tells_the_Story_Ab...

As of May 2015 they were said to be preparing a "sales launch" and licensing distributors: http://pesn.com//2015/05/05/9602616_Yildiz-preparing-for-sal...

That's amazing. He comes across like such a "magician".

An illusionist like "yes, take a look inside the machine!"

The article mentions two independent groups of physicists who both had access to his device and both reported the same results. That would mean that both groups were in on it, or he's become so good at faking his results that they withstand a month of scrutiny.

Or that they have screwed up themselves somehow. In '89, there were several labs which claimed to replicate P&F's results, too.

They were eventually found to have calorimetric or similar problems.

> He is really not very good at measuring energy input and heat output.

Calorimetry is actually extremely hard to do right. VERY hard. I stopped following this field a few years ago, but back then EVERY single positive result was due to faulty calorimetry.

Just temperature measurement is hard once you start talking accuracy better than a few tenths of a degree C. Add in heat flow, yeah whatever.

Lubos Motl called out the specifics of the Energy Catalyzer hoax some years ago. I think it had to do with neglecting hydrostatic pressure within the water pipes, which allowed steam to get in.

True, to claim you are able to produce 1 megawatt of power you actually have to put it somewhere.

You could generate bitcoins.

> The explanation I've heard is that he has something which works (for some definition of works) but doesn't know how it works or why.

This happened to someone - one batch worked, one did not.

Turns out that palladium can be refined from spent nuclear fuel https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Synthesis_of_precious_metals#P... and his first batch was "contaminated" in this way, and worked. His second batch was traditional mined from the ground and did not work.

Caveat: This is a story I heard, I have no direct evidence for it.

>But elephant in the room is that if you can produce a MW of usable energy out of this thing then why not run it 24/7 and generate your quarter million a year in revenue

I guess the fundamental problem could be that while it does produce excess heat, it doesn't produce more than a heat pump would, so you can't actually use it for anything useful.

> It also doesn't help that Rossi has been convicted of fraud for purportedly inventing dubious devices in the past. In particular, he "created" a system for turning toxic waste into oil, but this turned out to be just dumping the waste into the environment.

I feel like if someone has done this once, anyone taking them seriously again, deserves to lose their shirt. What, he suddenly reformed and is now doing real science? In what universe does this happen?

He seems to characterize the charges as being more 'tax fraud' stemming from environmental damage caused by his failed effort to develop a more efficient waste incenerator.

Maybe he was scamming investors too, but he seems to be able to spin it in a way that plausibly he was not.

I guess everyone can remember this if you ever make a mistake! I think people can have second chances, if he products verifiable results then it is what it is, sure he will have to deal with skepticism but totally rejection forever is a bit much and possibly a waste.

Wait, what? I thought this was about the science and the results, not about the person.

That's true as long as everyone is acting in good faith.

Most of science is not particularly good at handling people not acting in good faith.

I think that is how the "reputation traps" develop.

As an Italian, I have to say that being convicted or found innocent of anything in the local legal system doesn't really indicate much.

Good point.

[Rossi] "created" a system for turning toxic waste into oil, but this turned out to be just dumping the waste into the environment

Wow, he is literally the villian Captain Planet fought in every single episode.

A huge problem is that people think cold fusion is just about the eCat. There's also this thing called Muon catalyzed fusion which was the first type of fusion to be labeled "Cold Fusion". It's a proven phenomenon the DOE provides grants for research into this.

You clearly have no idea of what the legislative landscape looks like in italy wrt environmental protection.

Results have been duplicated by two independent institutions of which one is the oldest university on the planet.

Im guessing professional envy may be the biggest problem Rossi faces..

Perhaps being convicted of fraud means his reputation is already damaged so he has little to lose by being in the reputation trap. If he had a clean record, he might keep away from the trap. In the end though, it doesn't really matter if he's wrong but we would suffer a huge loss if he's right but can't get it finished.

This guy is a fraud and known pathological liar, but he got entry to the Unites States because what - he's European and has the label "entrepreneur?"

But whoa, refugees? No thanks.

Excuse the snark, but why is this guy here and why is anyone lending him any credibility at all?

It's somewhat ironic to say you want to avoid groupthink and then to cite Wikipedia as your source.

Well, here's another source. Here's what the most prominent full-time pro-LENR advocate/journalist these days thinks of Rossi: http://newenergytimes.com/v2/sr/RossiECat/Andrea-Rossi-Energ...

I was open minded about Rossi and the 'E Cat' until I saw that video.

Like, where is the measuring equipment? He has a multimeter measuring the current coming out of the wall, but is not taking a simultaneous measurement of the voltage. Sure, OK, I guess we'll assume it's 220 V from the power company, and figure it's drawing about 750 W (about half the power of a full size microwave oven).

But then on the output side, he has a rubber hose with a tiny amount of steam coming out. Maybe even less that what you would expect from a 750W tea kettle. They have to hold it up against a tshirt to measure it. They have a thermometer on the input water reservoir but for some reason don't even bother measuring either the temperature or mass-flow rate of the output?

This video is not demonstrating the measurement techniques of a credible scientist. I would not let this guy service my home air conditioning unit.

you’re not wrong there is potentially irony there, but … it’s not like Wikipedia doesn’t have sources you can follow. Linking to Wikipedia is linking to a consensus summary & portal to more links

I take no sides in the cold-fusion discussion. The irony comment was meant as an aside. More enlightened souls like you and I will check the sources. However, Wikipedia pages are not made by "consensus"; they are invariably shaped by the most powerful group of editors on the page.