Ok, maybe it's too optimistic but I'd totally make a wager. I say it will take 5 years for the Bay, 10 for major cities and highways, 15 for the rest of the country and by 2050, human driving will be illegal on public roads.
any takers?
any takers?
But are you suggesting that in 5 years a person can summon an autonomous taxi in the Bay area? By autonomous car I mean the client (passenger) will not need to be ready to take control nor will there be any other human in the vehicle for that purpose, and the vehicle will transport the client from one place in the Bay to another over the public road system, mixing with other non-autonomous traffic of various types.
If so, I'm in for USD $100. I say that in 5 years (12/17/2020 or before) it will NOT be the case that a user can expect to summon an autonomous (as defined above) taxi for transport anywhere in the United States.
I think the key parts of the wager are 1) that the car drives itself, without a human present 2) it's in the Bay area and 3) it's legal.
I'll see you in 5 years.
But malicious agents can disable your car today. A solar flare would fry you current car's electronics just as easily as an auto-auto. And a gun qualifies as a "small device" too, so I'm not sure why that makes in difference.
But I do think that the legalization of auto-automobiles will start in San Fransisco and the surrounding area.
Personally I don't think it will ever have to be illegal. It's more likely that people will stop driving of their own volition and the laws allowing driving will remain in place, just be unused.
I'm actually in agreement that autonomous transportation will become "a thing" in roughly five years, somewhere in the world, in some capacity. This will prove the model and eliminate most of the rational arguments for its prohibition, which will lead to it becoming commonplace but probably over the course of several decades.