[..] advances that had earned their discoverers several
shelves of Nobel Prizes
Hyperbole as a style form is all and well, but this is just misrepresenting the truth. This journalist didn't rethink what he was writing for even a second. [..] advances that had earned their discoverers several
shelves of Nobel Prizes
Hyperbole as a style form is all and well, but this is just misrepresenting the truth. This journalist didn't rethink what he was writing for even a second.A famous example being the Black Scholes model for option pricing, which won its inventors the Nobel Prize in Econ. Myron Scholes went on to create one of the first 'quant' funds (LTCM) back 1994 (which flamed out spectacularly during Russia's crisis in 1998.)
Interestingly, in a course on statistical physics, the prof showed that by performing the correct transformations on the central equation of the Black-Scholes model, you can actually reduce it to a plain diffusion equation. He wondered whether it was reasonable to hand out a Nobel prize for that.
With some good faith you can also take into account the assymetric informations study, so Akerlof, Spence, Stiglitz, Vickrey; also, if you're big enough to move the prices by your orders, the game theory applies: Selten, Nash, Harsanyi.
As for the Black-Scholes, from what I understand, the biggest insight is that the volatility of the stock is basically the risk.
The problems with the non-constant volatility, led to studying different (ARCH, GARCH) models and work appreciated by a Nobel in 2003.