Using plain numbers, I would explain it to a layperson like this:
The hash is number from 1 to 1,000,000 (actually, it's a lot larger and we are counting from zero, but you get the idea). You can't control how large or small the value is. If some people generate a hash of 10,000 or below, this means they had to try roughly 100 times, computing 100 hashes, until they found that one by chance. This is a "Proof of work". If you reduce the threshold from 10,000 to 5,000, people will have to compute on average 200 instead of 100 hashes. So the smaller the threshold, the more difficult the challenge is to solve.
On top of its simplicity, this explaination has the advantage that the statistics are pretty obvious and don't even contain exponentials or logarithms, which you would have to use when talking about strings and leading zeros.
Not to be blunt, yet after 100 attempts w/ 1% positive outcome, there is roughly 63.3% odds to actually succeed.