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Your question about self-fulfilling prophecy is very relevant to a recent piece written by a transportation expert. Among other points he makes:

>Uber-type companies need to be understood as a radical departure from Amazon/EBay type models. Instead of displacing competitors through actual efficiencies, or by creating entirely new markets, its model is entirely based on getting the world to believe that it will inevitably dominate the entire industry. This requires aggressively suppressing any discussion of empirical economic evidence (which would undermine its case) and emphasizing the factors driving inevitability--the brilliance of its early stage investors, the ruthlessness of management, and the raw political power of the company’s wealthy supporters. PR is a component of every start-up; at Amazon/EBay it played a supporting role and relied heavily on economic evidence of competitive strengths, but at Uber PR is the heart of the plan, and replaces the need to figure out how to provide much better service at much lower cost.

https://pando.com/2015/12/01/has-pando-missed-heart-uber-pro...

I think they are creating a new market. People now use Uber in situations in which they never would have thought to take a cab. That is not to say this valuation makes sense

Perhaps so, but how substantial is that compared to the market of people who are just using Uber as a more convenient and reliable cab? Surely the latter is the vast bulk of their business.

currently but I can foresee a time when it is so convenient to hail a car that a lot of people just forgo car ownership entirely. Think of a future in which self driving cars work well and you can use your phone to get one to wherever you are within 10 minutes, get dropped off anywhere, never worry about parking and it costs far less than car ownership.

I can only speak for myself here but I feel like I am part of a new market that Uber and Lyft have created. I live in Austin TX and have had bad cab experiences here and so I frequently use Uber. I am from New York, however, and when I'm back there I almost never use Uber because I have no problems with getting a cab.

I would be surprised if the market for cab companies in Austin is as large as the market Uber serves. I really cant recall the last time someone here told me they got in a cab. I think those people just drove themselves places before Uber instead of taking a cab. I certainly did.

I live out in a relatively remote area of Queens in NYC and never, ever took taxis before (I would have had to call an unreliable, surly car service). Now I spend $100+ a month on Uber, which is never more than 5 minutes away.

OT, the "5 minutes" I believe is an estimation and one reason why we feel that the response is fast. As a thought experiment, if they say your car is "10 minutes" away, it would perhaps be a different experience.

This is very important, because I time my rides to the minute, and almost every time, the driver that accepts my ride is sitting in his living room (or at his office) and takes five minutes alone just to get to his car and start driving to my location. Drivers aren't just sitting there idling like taxis at a taxi stand.

It's been 10 and 11 minutes just outside Canberra, Australia. There are less drivers here.

Interestingly 2 of the local cab companies now have Uber-like apps, which are quite nice to use.

Exactly. There is a market for people who want cabs and cant get them. Uber serves that market very well in some places AND steals market share from people who would normally take a cab.

I live in a suburb, own a shared vehicle with my wife, and never use Uber. Only the vehicle my wife and I share, a bicycle, or public transportation.

Anecdotes!

Like I said, I am only speaking for myself. I didn't claim that everyone who fits the description you just described now uses Uber.

I think that's my point. You previously would've used cabs, now you use Uber. Is Uber's value justified simply by the cohort of people who'd move away from using a traditional taxi service? I've been told no, that it requires a lot of people to do away with their vehicles and primarily use Uber, similar to a car share service but including the driver. I don't think that scenario is that likely to happen.

I previously did NOT use cabs in Austin. I had 2 bad experiences and just never tried again. Over the last year since I have relied on Uber so heavily I have actually sold my car. I still have a motorcycle and I use it for most short trips weather permitting. But if the weather is bad or I need to carry something with me that wont fit on the bike I use Uber.

My argument is that you're an abnormality. Have kids? Have pets? (Can you even get a child seat for use in an Uber) Not selling your car and using Uber for all your transportation needs.

Its a solution for 20 something singles. That's not a terribly huge market, and definitely not one worth billions of dollars.

Totally missing the forest for the trees. Uber has billions in revenue, so just on that alone the idea that the market is not worth billions is false.

Furthermore, they said the same things (20 something singles) about Facebook. Now my parents are on Facebook. The key is that Uber has the potential to change market behavior. Well, more than just the potential - it is changing some market behavior, as evidenced by this anecdote. The potential is that it has to potential to change the transportation spending habits of many more people.

Couple things:

Transportation is going to change regardless. Electric self-driving cars are going to be manufactured by several companies, perhaps operated by those same companies (or leased to others).

Why would Google provide its tech to Uber when Google already has access to the market through Google Maps? Why would Tesla provide its self-driving cars to Uber when it could build them and sell ridesharing directly (which Elon has specifically indicated he wants to do by his response to said questions during investor calls).

Uber is just an app, no more, no less. The Gorillas are the tech companies doing the real work.

Yeah but the cab market in Austin is exceptionally bad -- and expensive! If there was ever a market ripe for a service like Lyft, it's Austin.

Definitely. It's one of the best reasons to pursue the famous venture capital firms. John Doerr has a lot of important people's phone numbers, and they will take his call (with the same obviously being true about maybe two dozen other famous investors). It's why Dropbox put Condoleezza Rice on its board. It's why Gilead had Donald Rumsfeld as its Chairman. It's why Theranos has an all-star line-up on its board.

Business is, always has been, and always will be, heavily about networks. You can do it without them, it's just drastically harder.

In other words, Uber has the connections to unduly influence the government in a way to make sure they survive. Which is kinda the reason why people want things like taxi companies to fail. So is this a good or bad thing?

My understanding is that Uber is currently providing new hires with RSUs, not options (so valuation growth isn't necessarily necessary). I could be misinformed.

What do you mean by "valuation growth isn't necessarily necessary"?

RSUs are actual stock. so if you get granted $100k in stock, and the stock only drops by a $1 over the course of a year, you still get $99k in stock.

less upside and less downside.

There is limited upside at 60+billion.

> I've completely changed my mind on Uber, 18 months ago I would have felt nervous as employee joining them when determining if my options would be worth much. Now, I'd be asking if i could put 50% of my paycheck towards buying more options.

Almost seems like this is the ideal point to join one of these unicorns.