Half a year later, the Apple Watch feels like a stalled platform
qz.com
qz.com
Tim Cook and Johnny Ive may present the Apple Watch as an incredibly novel, sexy-as-hell product in a nascent, high-value market, but they do that with every new Apple product line because it’s their job. They know very well that the Apple Watch will not see iPhone-like, extreme revenue generation.
Apple Watch was not designed to be a high-growth, standalone product. It was designed to be a companion to the iPhone. As such, Apple Watch success will be a direct function of iPhone success. As long as the iPhone continues to sell in mind-boggling quantities with a mind-boggling growth rate, the Apple Watch will enjoy a growing market as a complementary product with recurring revenues every 2 years or so, in line with the iPhone.
While sales of the iPhone and the Apple Watch will not match up 1:1, the ratio will still be high enough for Apple to make a decently profitable side business out of selling watches to a growing subset of consumers who will find some set of tenuous and borderline-indescribable reasons to purchase one. [1]
[1] http://roymurdock.com/essays/2015/07/apple-watch-form-factor...
I'm not super excited that it is centralized and cloud mediated, but the cross device integration is a valuable piece of the puzzle. I don't want to lose the ability to use a medium sized device for the same purposes, I want to be able to choose whichever one is best for what I'm doing.
I don't think there is a big market for notifications. I think the tech is roughly in place to do notifications well (they are still pretty bulky), so people that get a lot out of that feature are satisfied. I pretty well implied that the tech isn't in place to have a compact watch that can also take calls, so I'm not really worried that early attempts failed to serve that function.
The marketplace for apps is fairly limited though.
At some point technology will permit iPhone-level computing in a form factor the size of a watch. When that happens, it will require new UI concepts to make that power usable. Apple has started the learning process by seeing what works in the market.
[Some] will argue that there will be a different ecosystem of apps for the Apple Watch. To that I would say, fine, but what are the inputs, mediums, and outputs of this new form factor? What data collection, processing, and presentation applications will be better on the Apple Watch than they are on a smartphone or a computer? What new and compelling apps are possible from these new IO and processing capabilities?
The only input that the Apple Watch gets that is different from a smartphone is from its physical location on the user’s wrist — a pulse. Otherwise, outputs will be relatively restricted and less useful than the iPhone’s outputs due to the watch’s smaller screen. Who wants to play a game, read a book, or surf the web on a watch? Nobody.
The Apple Watch is a glorified fitness tracker that obviates the need to take your phone out of your pocket to check notifications. Its secondary function is a marker of status, but there are plenty of other things you could buy to signal wealth to potential mates. [1]
[1] http://roymurdock.com/essays/2015/07/apple-watch-form-factor...
I had an iPhone 5, and loved the form factor, but not the battery life. The 6+ can handle a couple of days of use as a smartphone and mobile internet access point. The larger screen is irrelevant to me, but the larger battery matters.
I like that when the phone rings, I see who's calling on the watch. Same for personal messages from my daughter, son, or +1. I like paying for coffee with a bar code on my wrist. I care about the weather and appointments on my wrist, and yes I have used it to call an Uber. The watch needs a better battery life, and it will be a game changer when it becomes untethered. But for now, it is fine just the way it is. I think the Apple Watch is a successful product.
As for the post, the title speaks to the watch being a failed platform. It may well be that, Apple has commoditized iOS apps, the opportunity for people to get stinking rich from watch apps is going to be smaller.
But if it can be a successful product, I think that is enough. IMO, Apple is playing defense, not offense. Apple wins if people keep buying iPhones. The danger with wearables is that by the time you can make a watch that replaces a smartphone for a lot of use cases, Apple might get disrupted. Likewise if watches tethered to smartphones were to become essential, Apple could get disrupted if it had a poor experience.
The last thing Tim Cook wants is to wake up one day and find people walking into stores, buying a Pebble Gizmo2016, and asking the clerk, "What's the cheapest phone that works with my new Pebble?"
I have a feeling that the Apple Watch 1.0 is doing enough to hedge against watches disrupting smartphones. As the leader in smartphones, that's its first concern.
I can now leave my iPhone6 on my desk at work, and on a table and home and never have to carry it around with me (at those locations). It does exactly what a >Watch< should do. It's not a computer it's a 2nd screen for my phone.
Do you think the purchase of a Watch could have a bearing on iPhone purchase decisions based on the phone's battery life (if we do not see untethering in the near future)?
I think that Ressence Watches (which are, ironically, mechanical) has done the most compelling modern watch design:
http://ressencewatches.com/watches/type-3
Something like the Type 3, with a touch-rotating bezel, would nail the smartwatch aesthetic the way that the iPhone 5 hinted at the platonic ideal of cell phones.
But, the iWatch is more fashion than function, so I'm not surprised it's stalled. v2 or v3 might pose some more appealing features, but for now i'm iWatchless, and i'm totally fine with that.
Regarding busywork, it's worth recalling that "the enemy of art is the absence of limitations."
A circular UI would introduce some very interesting constraints and give Apples designers a chance to work in a new problem space. The tension and interplay there could lead to more interesting innovation than the scaled down mobile screen they are currently have.
And using the bezel, rather than a tiny crown, as the rotational input, which a circular watch allows, is an obvious usability win.
A screen that has the size and power limitations of the Apple Watch seems like plenty of limitations to work with, to me.
(and I suspect Apple did it at some point in the development of the watch anyway)
I think (or at least hope) there is a chance that eventually apple will break and move to something like this.
I understand they need a smart watch. Like another person pointed out, the last thing Appke wants is "Will this (any brand smart watch) work with my iPhone."
So they need a smart watch? When they figure out all the problems it might be a easier sell? Until they get to that point, I think they should work on making it waterproof.
A waterproof watch is not an easy engineering feat. Most watches, even high end watches, are not waterproof. Yes, they say they are, but unless you are vigilant on servicing a high-end watch; it will leak. I have had so many water resistant/proof watches cloud up while river rafting, or even sea kayaking.
I think Apple should focus on a truly waterproof watch. I think it would be a great selling point. It seems like it would be an easy engineering feat, but it's hard. They could do away with the crown. That would be one less gasket to worry about. And then you still need to access the internals for repair? You want customers thinking they will have this watch for life?
I think what Apple forgot about when designing the Iwatch is this; When people decide to buy a high-end watch, a little part of them is thinking, I'll have this watch for life? If it needs repair/servicing--I can easily it repaired. (If it's out of warranty it's very difficult/expensive to repair these high end watches.) "Hell, if I get tired of it, I'll sell it?" "I love those 60 year old Bubble-backs--they must be bullet proof?" "If I buy this watch, I give it to my kid eventually?"
When I look at the Iwatch, none of these thoughts come to mind. Actually, maybe Apple should have never tried to play up the luxury branding of the Iwatch. Forget about the 18k gold, and all that. Lower the pricing point. Make it truely water resistant. Maybe even waterproof?
But then again, what do I know? I do collect/repair old watches. I really wanted to like the Iwatch. Maybe the next model?
Siri goes away and thinks for dozens of seconds when you ask her something and sometimes never comes back. Even once text has been translated from speech, it sometimes takes 5 seconds to actually send a text.
The functionality is amazing, but the speed of the device is abysmal.
I love everything that it does do, but it is too painful to do it.
I use it for telling the time, tracking my activity, and reading iMessages, but I now know that attempting to do anything else I'd possibly want to (like replying to a message) will take twice as long on the watch as it does to take my phone out of my pocket and do it on there. It even lags while scrolling a notification, sometimes.
Many of my friends are the same, although don't dislike it enough to sell it. They don't plan to upgrade to the next version, however.
Edit: I also wish notifications were smarter. I like that you can choose which apps have their notifications show up on the watch, but it's currently all or nothing. I'd like to be able to choose what type of notifications show up. For example, I want notifications for Twitter DMs on my watch, but not notifications for likes, retweets, etc.
I don't see myself buying a smart watch anytime soon, but I said the same thing about buying a smartphone years ago.
But a smartphone solves problems. lots of problems. GPS, camera, email... it does a lot. A smartwatch has to solve different problems, or current problems better, to be useful. Whereas right now it's more fashion than function.
The watch is not for everyone; however there are a few use cases that it handles much better than a phone (at least for me).
There's also a designer watch/fashion market, which is the one that seems to be of more interest to Apple. However, it doesn't appear to be winning in that one.
The current Apple Watch market appears to be "geeks with iPhones who live in Silicon Valley, or wannabees". How is it doing there?
If the allegation were true, though, it'd be a notable issue/feature in a comparison versus Apple Watch.
In rare cases I've seen my MacBook Pro display stale time in the taskbar. Haven't pinned it down yet.
In both cases the balance of usefulness paid for is found elsewhere in the product.
I'm surprised to hear that. I've found the apple watch to have very significant errors for measuring heart rates, often over 20% versus a chest strap.
For my purposes that makes it largely useless. I'm admittedly serious about tracking my exertion levels: I run about 40+ miles per week, use a Polar Ft7 for comparison.
Maybe it's the platform, or maybe there just aren't a ton of things I'm interested in doing on my watch.
I thought the problems with the Watch were bigger than just its physical limitations, though...Even if the iPod lacked wireless and cost more and had less HD space than competing MP3 players, you don't have to "sell* the concept that a portable music player is going to be just awesome...sure, you may not be able to afford it, but at least you can aspire to it, because virtually everyone loves music, and before the iPod or any mp3 player had come along, they had Walkmans. Or they plugged their headphones into their laptops.
But that universal appeal didn't seem to apply to the Watch. I don't have a watch because I don't see it as a necessary fashion accessory (I think it goes without saying that a watch is no longer necessary for telling time). So whatever non-obvious features the Watch has...Apple can't rely as much on my consumerism-fueled imagination to aspire to buy it...even if I'm not falling into the mindset of "well my phone, which I already carry with me all the time, does everything the watch does".
I don't think I'm underestimating the appeal of the form factor. The original iPad has been the only thing that I've ever waited in line for an Apple opening (OK, that and the first Apple Store in Iowa)...yeah, you can call it a "big iPhone"...but I already know that I don't really enjoy reading/writing things on my iPhone...or, at least I can imagine such activities being much better if only I had a bigger screen -- and if I didn't have to pop-open a laptop.
I don't have the same imagination for the fact that I can look at my watch without pulling it from my pocket. I already hate that I pull out my phone almost reflexively to check it while I'm idling around in real life, so being able to do that on a tiny screen on my wrist has very little appeal to me, certainly not enough to pay hundreds for.
http://www.cnet.com/uk/videos/apple-watch-vs-ipod-nano-watch...
I guess they don't want to pigeonhole a device into a specific category.
[1] http://m.imore.com/how-add-apple-music-playlists-your-apple-...
That seems like a pretty full plate for a 42mm screen.
I don't expect to get these. But you asked what I wanted.
Google glass, on the other hand, seems in my observation to have launched with about 25% cool factor and 75% dorky, show-off, elitist kinda vibe to it. It devolved from there.
Despite Apple's reputation for coolness, the watch seems like it's at about 50/50 on the scale at best. I love technology and probably have a reputable score on the dorkiness scale myself. But, when I see Apple watches, they even seem a bit much for me.
I think this is a great future market. It's quite unfortunate that, although the Apple watch has a pulse oximeter in it, the functionality is currently disabled. Reportedly because it would then be a medical device in the eyes of the FDA.
Good sleep tracking, just that one function, could conceivably sell millions of units.
A smartwatch is the perfect accessory to a device like this, which is too large/unwieldy to use at the gym, or pull out for things like map directions, public transit arrival times, email notifications, etc. None of these are a problem with smaller phones, like the 6 Plus or Galaxy Note.
The Apple Watch is a poor solution for this, because, like the 2001 iPod, it requires a Mac device to work. And even if it didn't, like Android Wear devices, it must be tethered to a smartphone for most of its functions, as opposed to functioning as a standalone device.
I understand Apple, Google, etc. don't want to cannibalize device sales, but it seems ridiculous to me that a V1.0 smartwatch costing $300+ can't even support music playback on local storage, or have a built-in GPS and maps that work offline. If I'm on the go, I'd like to limit the number of expensive devices I'm carrying with me where possible. I think the same goes for most people, otherwise people would still be carrying their flip phones and digital cameras around. Yes, of course there are hobbyists who need their DSLR with them all the time, but the majority of people are happy with a solution that's good enough and convenient enough.
I'm not even thinking about more advanced features like a built in video camera that, with the appropriate strap, could act as a body cam or a helmet cam. I'm sure future versions will offer such functionality, but V1.0 functionality is already so limited, I simply can't muster any enthusiasm for this class of devices yet.
A smart watch just doesn't seem to add anything significant in the way that smart phones did. Smart phone benefits over a laptop are huge, but smart watch benefits over a smart phone are quite small. I think we're just seeing the natural limitations of a product with this form factor.
Notifications are actually really nice. My phone has been on silent for months. When I'm at home, I never, ever have my phone with me anymore. Basically wherever I go I just put my phone down and forget about it because the watch is a sufficient proxy. Is it life changing? Nope, but it's definitely convenient.
I've taken phone calls through my watch when cooking before. That was actually really cool.
I think you're forgetting that it's also, well, a watch. I always find it silly how people underplay the fact that smartwatches are also just watches. In my case, I have the time, date, temperature / weather conditions, next meeting time, activity tracking, and the time of sunrise/sunset all available with a split second glance on my wrist. Again, it's not life changing, but it sure is convenient. The sport band is also way more comfortable than almost all traditional watches I've ever worn; I often barely notice I have it on.
I flew a bunch recently and I loved having my gate and terminal information for my next flight right on my watchface.
I don't regret getting the watch at all. It's been a really pleasant companion on my wrist.
I've never really understood why people are mystified by smartwatches. They're just watches that do more and provide more information. People wear them for the same reason they would wear any watch. They're not even that expensive. Maybe $350 sounds like a lot, but I can find you hundreds of Citizen quarts watches for that price or more. $350 is just not high in the watch world.
It's too awkward to hold your arm out for the amount of time needed to meaningfully interact with it. They're big and clunky on small wrists, and the screen is way too small for people with big fingers. For the price you pay for one, you can get a really nice designer watch, which isn't limited by the lifetime of lithium-ion batteries.
It's just a silly gimmick, but so many people have buyer's remorse about it, that they forced themselves into the habit of using it.
I also no longer have notification noises on, I just have a thing on my wrist that vibrates. Again, a not insignificant quality of life improvement.
If I used iOS instead of Android I'd probably have an Apple Watch instead of a PT, since that works better with that platform.
I don't really care about smart watches being a platform for apps. Maybe that has stalled, but it doesn't matter to me. I haven't found a single app for the PT I think is useful. It doesn't mean I don't find my PT useful. If I lost it today, I'd order another one without hesitation.
How many notifications do you receive that it would come out to be worth it? Seems like cutting down on the notifications would yield a higher return than spending money on a pebble time, or any other smartwatch.
I have to ask, what are you doing that it is so important for you to see the notifications immediately? I just have a hard time imagining what notification is so important that you need something vibrating on your wrist to tell you of it.
The thing is that I never have to even remember to check. That's why it's so convenient. I've completely eliminated "check phone for notifications" from my mental to-do list. That's a task I simply never have to do again. That might not count for much for you, but in my case I like just being able to place my phone down, forget about it for potentially hours, and still not have to worry about missing anything.
I think expectations are to high and it has a low ceiling in terms of potential. Apple shouldn't have gotten into this market for years to come but the pressure from investors forced them.
To flip around, you mean for all the money I pay for that designer watch, all it does is tell time? Hell, I've got my phone for that. An expensive device that takes up space on my wrist just to tell time in a world full of clocks is just a silly gimmick, but so many people have buyer's remorse about it, that they forced themselves into the habit of using it.
Of course, I don't believe any of that. Different strokes and all, and if folks want to blow cash on time-telling jewelry that can't even tell me what the weather is tomorrow, more power to them.
Signed, happy Pebble Time owner
It was good for pausing music and choosing podcasts with the overcast app.
I've now got a Garmin 235. It's much more comfortable, has a GPS, better battery etc. It also does all the health stuff and has an HRM.
The article was very unclear about what rapidly changed in the phone market for all but the earliest adopters. And given that its basically a phone 2nd display, its not new at all.
But I still love it.
Does anyone else not remember this?!
From comments online, I find it really hard to believe that the world has collectively forgotten that. Did I live in a bubble, or is everyone else's memory of 2007 just way off? From what I remembered, it was outright mass hysteria.
The watch, OTOH, just doesn't excite people the same way. Critics and skeptics have not been silenced. It doesn't even excite their owners the same way. People are buying and returning the watches. Owners are defensive when talking about the watch, instead of the cult-like adoration and mass hysteria that followed the original iPhone.
I constantly add new stuff to my watch. Ranging from simple apps to complete workflow solutions.
Give me 2 more month and I can replace one of my DevOps with my watch.
1) One of our server goes down. 2) My watch tells me about it. 3) I can decide a) Reboot it b) Replace it c) Send a callout to my Ops team.
All in less than 10 seconds ... used to take 10 minutes, including taking out my laptop, checking what's going on, finding out who's on call.
We have a few dozen of these.
If it's possible with an Apple Watch, surely you could also do it on your iPhone?
That's the problem with the watch for me - not that it can't do things, but that those things are also possible on an iPhone, and the extra expense/remembering to charge/etc isn't worth it for the ~3 second convenience.
1. Server goes down
2. Smartphone tells you about it
3. You can decide
3-a. Reboot
3-b. Replace
3-c. Call ops team
Conclusion: Same same, and you still need the smartphone to use the watch. So not really that interesting.