Transformation at Yahoo Foiled by Its Leader’s Inability to Bet the Farm
nytimes.com
nytimes.com
Other sources indicate that Mayer is very much a metrics-based decision maker (a).
I'm wondering if that's the result of putting a metrics-based decision maker at the head of a technology company. For sustaining innovation, carefully finding a local maximum seems fine, but in a dynamic field, you also need to be able to make a big move based on a more qualitative understanding of your surroundings.
As a technical contributor, I've been on-and-off frustrated my whole career by quantitative managers asking for promises of real profit before committing to cleaning up technical debt. There's no honest way to come up with a good number here. You can't solve the problem thirty times and then present a high mean and low p-value. "Keep doing what we're doing but maybe 5% better" requires absolutely no proof, in contrast. You don't have to prove that COBOL-based system XYZ won't blow up in your face or that frames-in-frames webpage mycompany.com/abc won't eventually look unprofessional and affect the company's brand.
I'm wondering if Mayer's "inability to bet the farm" is a higher-level version of the same problem... setting the bar too high for definitive proof creates barriers to strategic moves into areas with incomplete information.
a) http://www.businessinsider.com/how-marissa-mayer-figured-out...
I actually would have been happy if Yahoo resurrected a web portal and built social search to address the failings of Google, but instead there was this weird unfocused acquisition spree.
As you note, the problem with tech is that for truly profitable endeavors, there is always a technical barrier that first much be overcome. And from first-glance, that seems like an impossible / overly-expensive burden (especially given the unknown reward behind it).
But is there a good way to overcome this, and convince cautious, quantitative managers that an decision with no corresponding data is truly necessary, and could yield great returns?
The one way I have seen it and participated in it, is when someone takes it in their own hands and does something bold to prove to the manager that there is traction and profit to be found outside the paint by numbers scheme. The problem, depending on the manager is that either the bold person is rewarded and the company moves towards some of that greener pasture, or the persons head is cut off and a good project dies right along with all employee morale.
More simply to me this is the difference between an entrepreneur and a hired gun/manager/ceo. Most entrepreneur's are comfortable being uncomfortable, so they will make the "risky" call as people will see it, whereas a hired CEO may not because they are comfortable in measuring and proving to the board how good they are doing by coloring inside the lines.
It's easy to be a visionary with 3 years of hindsight.
Generally those things are harder (though not impossible) to get in larger firms that are mired in communication weight. Speaking with zero first-hand experience with either company, Netflix probably struggles to handle those issues already, and to merge with a larger company that is trying to tighten its belt is unlikely to improve the situation.
I've worked for 3 companies so far that merged with a larger, more "traditional" company, and every times there was high attrition from the engineering side as people saw various "good" parts of their job go away, from things as small as more bureaucratic procedures to as large as technology switches.
I myself left one company when the new company required everyone to wear ties "because our sales people have to", despite the fact that we were in a separate site that no client would ever approach. That was 1999 and East Coast :) In retrospect, that seems a silly reason to leave a company, but it resulted in a significant pay boost and my period of greatest learning in my career. And I don't wear a tie.
Now, both Netflix and Yahoo ARE tech companies, so my anecdotal evidence above may not even apply, but generally in this field demand for coders far outstrips supply, and anything that makes coders uncomfortable in large numbers can really threaten the status quo.
In 'hot' professions, which at the moment include software engineering, pay is a "hygiene factor" - it is required but not sufficient to hold or attract people.
While in theory the company holds all the "intellectual property", in practice in software-related companies most of their capital simply puts on a hat and goes away every evening; and [a change of] management, working environment and company culture may (and does) result in losing those people.
If they eagerly joined company A to do X, then simply buying that company doesn't neccessarily mean that they will automatically accept working in company B doing Y even if pay will still be the same. For acquired startups, it's very likely that their engineers had quit a company like Yahoo just because they wanted to work for a company like Netflix instead, and would do that once again if the situation would repeat itself.
But obviously if Netflix were to be acquired by Yahoo, I see a fundamental demand to make Netflix into the Yahoo portal, because of the ad money, which I think would be a mistake (linking is a whole different story). At least YouTube is not integrated into Google portal which is a great decision.
It seems like the problems then were more geared towards finding anything that accomplished the given goal. Whereas modern web users are spoiled for choice and can afford to pick best in breed.
I think no one would use Google search if it were bundled with G+. No offense to G+, but it's an inferior network/product compared to the alternatives. Users do use Google search, or Youtube, or whatever because they are severable from their companies' ecosystems.
There's probably also a huge ancillary benefit to corporate structure and development flexibility when your authority/responibility is silo'd by end user functionality.
(Counterpoint: Bill Gate's infamous flame on the Windows Media Player update experience, whereas it was revealed that the user experience for updating a piece of software cut across three or four different departments)
Absolutely, sometimes it does makes sense to integrate, but Yahoo having its own media content as part of their Yahoo! portal means they are likely going to think of a way to integrate Netflix into the portal, since netflix revenue is entirely from monthly subscription.
They certainly can rebrand Community entirely under Netflix, but then they are leaving Finance, Sport and News entirely to Yahoo Portal, which is again, good on its own ground. Perhaps they will invent the new online TV ecosystem. The thing Netflix lacks is news. Yahoo can supplement that, but the whole Netflix will change, and it will be a huge innovation and a major game change if done right. YouTube on the other hand is a medium for all sorts of brands, so finding news can be chaotic.
Netflix is at the mercy of content producers who can extract most of the long term value.
>The problem is there at the mercy of content producers who can extract most of the long term value.
How is that any different from HBO?
Netflix doesn't need to have everything, and, in general, Netflix can afford to outbid other services for content due to the sheer size of its membership and revenue streams.
If Yahoo shareholders wanted to own Netflix in 2012, they should have sold Yahoo shares, bought Netflix shares, and experienced those gains. If they wanted active portfolio management, they should have sold Yahoo shares and put their money with a portfolio manager.
I obviously can't speak for your experience in having these discussions, but I've found that the "debt" metaphor is extremely helpful in explaining this value to the business side (and, having worked in finance, it's actually more appropriately referred to as an unhedged call option which is much worse[1]).
1: http://higherorderlogic.com/2010/07/bad-code-isnt-technical-...
Agreed; though this is changing. More companies are starting to optimize their tech organizations for flexibility rather than low cost. The cost difference usually isn't that much (no more than 25%) but the focus is on building and maintaining a technical product development capability. All products today are technical products, and if non-technical companies don't develop a technical competency, they will wither and die (then their brands will be bought by whoever DOES have a technical competency).
This is a strategic move, and strategic moves shouldn't be based purely off of numbers. They should be backed up by numbers, but market positioning and brand play into it a lot more than financial projections.
In the end, ROI or metrics-based management approaches are mired in ideas that belong in businesses that resemble raw materials extraction (like, say, Exxon) or about as far away from a company like Apple or Google as you can imagine.
When was the last time your company did an metrics improvement or ROI study on the phone system? The office electrical grid? Email? How the hell would you even conduct such a study? Would the iPhone project, prior to its release, survived such a study?
You can't tell someone they're doing it wrong if what they're doing is making them money. That is the bottom line.
If my car is running fine, a mechanic telling me about my messed up gear alignment and replacing the clutch pressure plate thats 'about to die' isn't going to convince me to spend $3543 in parts and labor. That is what it sounds like to non-CS people.
You can educate yourself about one aspect of car, but unless you're actually a mechanic yourself its trivial for an expert in a field to bilk someone outside of that field.
As a developer, it would be super easy for me to make-up technical debt, talk about API complexity, brittle design and what not, but ultimately no manager is just going to allow a developer to go about changing the design for no perceived gain (to them). This is not necessarily a bad thing, as the vast majority of developers, are simply mediocre and are poor judges of what constitutes good design anyway.
> You can't tell someone they're doing it wrong if what they're doing is making them money. That is the bottom line.
This is exactly the problem, though, isn't it? If it's easier to believe someone who tells you "we can keep muddling along indefinitely" than someone who tells you "this will cause problems eventually", then you have some sort of cognitive dissonance to counteract.
In other words, what is the right response when your mechanic tells you "replace your breaks or you'll eventually die in a fiery car accident"? I'm pretty sure the answer isn't "well, I don't understand cars, so I'm going to defer this decision until you can quantify how soon I'll be dead".
Well, you have to deal with the reality of how humans think. That cognitive dissonance is called the human condition. It is impossible to live life if one were to not have any biases or gut instinct. You'd have 1000 football games between two teams just to eliminate the different variables in order to determine which team was better. You'd have to visit a restaurant that served you shitty food, again and again till you made sure that it wasn't just a one-off, You'd have to allow a person to run a company into the ground multiple times just to make sure the previous failures were not the result of poor judgement, and so on. Chance and probablity rule our lives.
Also, your brakes example is unsatisfactory. When people use brakes they get an immediate feedback which lets them know if they're working adequately. And even so, people are more likely to believe a mechanic when it comes to brakes precisely because they could die if they get it wrong.
Anyway, replace "brakes" with "fizzschlider" since the point of the analogy is that the person making the decision isn't an expert in the problem domain.
I decided I would never work for a company that hired Marissa Mayer after that. I screen my employers more carefully than they screen me, and that move showed she didn't give one shit about any of hers.
If someone is working from home and not meeting their duties they should be fired. Eliminating the policy was a band-aid, having hard conversations and getting rid of the slackers (and their managers) would have been the cure.
[1] http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/02/26/us-workplace-flexi...
I ended up quitting because I was tired of watching my boss browse Facebook and sports blogs all day.
They still exist and will probably take another 18 months to wither and die. The experience taught me to look hard for red flags and to hold my company as accountable as myself.
Maybe Yahoo didn't have time to sort through all those cases, but it shouldn't be surprised that:
1. Yahoo might have pushed out many people who didn't deserve it. Many of them are working parents and perhaps people with disabilities.
2. Yahoo might have pushed out "cheaters" without really telling them why, leaving them disgruntled about work-from-home policies instead of embarrassed that they were caught not doing their jobs.
3. Yahoo singled out a certain category of "cheaters" unfairly. I'll bet $5000 that there were at least twenty always-at-their-desks Yahoo employees who "wasted" a significant amount of time on HN, facebook, reddit, Yahoo video, or just talking about hobbies and sports with coworkers. Taking the ax to at-home slackers and ignoring the general slacker problem is slightly unfair. It doesn't project communication and transparency; it teaches employees to hide their routine from their bosses as much as possible.
Disclaimer: I was at Yahoo when she came and implemented this policy.
It irritates me to see uninformed people making such blanket comments. You have no idea what the policy was; I do. Let me explain it, in the hope that you (and others with this mindset) may learn something about it, and maybe even change their views.
There was a group of Yahoos ( < 200 ) who had a permanent work-from-home exemption (if you can call it that; there was never much of an enforced policy earlier). They never came in to an office (except for the occasional IT issue and package pickup). There were a couple of incidents where these remote workers were found to be moonlighting. So a study was done to see how many of these remote workers actually VPNed in. After a month or two, it turned out, a good number of them were actually working part-time. So a blanket ban was issued, with the caveat that if you could make a compelling case, you would still be allowed to WFH. In fact, a colleague of mine continued to work from home after this policy change. A number of strong people continued to WFH; a few were let go; and the rest had to hoof it to office.
Now, the mistake Marissa made wasn't with this policy; but it was in how she didn't go the next step: holding the managers of the shirkers responsible.
Which brings me to my thinking about why it's so hard to turn around Yahoo: the middle management. (Please do me a favor and read PG's excellent post http://www.paulgraham.com/yahoo.html after you're done reading this). Yahoo is filled with managers whose sole contribution is survival. There is no accountability for screwing up. Fucking up products badly has never gotten anyone fired.
Did you know Yahoo went through 3 different iterations of an attempt at a "social network"? Each and every time, sane minds pointed out that the concept was bad, the UX was bad, etc.; and yet the managers prevailed and it went down in flames, as predicted.
The joke in Yahoo used to be: throw everything into version 1.0, because you never know if there will be a version 1.1.
Marissa is failing not because she's a bad CEO (having seen Yahoo CEOs like Terry Semel, I can assure you she's the best they've had in the last 10 years); it's because she has no supporting cast. She trusts people too much. One manager once said to me (about her): meh, she'll be gone in a couple of years; I'll still be around. He had been there since 2001, and had no intention of moving anywhere. Collected fat paychecks by taking credit for others' work. And he was just one of many, many in there. Over the years I encountered so many people like him, where you had no idea what actually they contributed to the company.
/rant
"I want to see you in your seat at your desk, otherwise I don't think you're working" is a sign of a terrible manager.
Obviously the even bigger mistake was not doing a massive company wide re-organization and throwing out all middle management. Middle management is only an asset if it is helping the business, and as is obviously the case in Yahoo, it is not.
She made a knee-jerk reaction and it was a bad call. I think all she had to do was take the actions you describe as her 'next step.' She may be better than those before her but that didn't allow her to succeed.
It may be on any given day you can do your work locally on your laptop, but if you work remotely and never or rarely sign into the vpn, a manager should be empowered to ask why not. And if no reasonable answer is forthcoming, terminate you for cause.
Instead, she punished lots of people because some of them were bad employees; I think she got the rep she deserves.
As far as potential employees go: in my 14 years of interviewing in the Bay Area, I have never, ever been asked about the work-from-home policy. That should tell you how little an impact it has.
Their News aggregator site used to be useful to me until it turned into something akin to a tabloid/clickbait site.
Sorry to hear that the 90s Dot Com mentality is still pervasive within the corporation, but maybe that's to be expected of a company that grew so fast and probably promoted a lot of amateurs into high managerial positions.
You know how folks complain about open office plans? Because of the distracting noise and potential for interruptions? Well imagine an open office with coworkers who have no sense of social tact, cannot take care of themselves, and have a constant deep need for your attention. That's what it is like for a parent to work at home and parent their kids at the same time.
So when I hear that parents at Yahoo were using "work at home" as a substitute for childcare, I think that Yahoo did the right thing by cancelling the policy. That is pretty clear abuse of it.
What I am missing is why it is called a failure after such a short time. Can't they just let her continue?
She was given huge latitude by the board to make decisions and show that they were valid. In the end she created an environment that led to an exodus of top talent.
She's a good high-level executive but not really a CEO.
It didn't take a decade. Apple was months away from bankruptcy when Jobs went back.
Granted, this was a longer time frame, between 1997 and 2003/4, but there were consistent signs along the way that improvements were happening and Jobs' decisions on where to make cuts and where to focus were correct. I think it's hard to say the same thing for Yahoo.
One of the things Jobs brought back to Apple was strategy - not just a strategy for specific products, but a focus on creating certain kinds of customer experiences and expectations.
Mayer hasn't done anything similar at Yahoo. She's been a tactical manager, not a strategic CEO. She keeps trying to do strategy with things like Project Index, but most of her acquisitions and ideas seem to have been impulse buys - arguably on the premise that the typical Yahoo user is someone a lot like herself.
I despair that the tech world is being run by no-nothing teenagers credentialed solely by their family's bank accounts.
Thanks for calling out this cringe-worthy assertion.
Similarly slashing the complex lines of offerings, selling the original colored iMacs at bigger profit margins than Apple had seen in years, etc were all things he pushed in less time than Mayer has been at Yahoo! Of course it's not fair to expect a new CEO of a troubled company to live up to that standard, but it's completely false to say it took him 10 years to "show results".
Just look at Apple's 10k filing from 1999. Net sales were hugely negative in 1997, in the black in 1998 and doubled in 1999.
http://investor.apple.com/secfiling.cfm?filingID=912057-99-1...
They could have been a lot of things but they managed to smash every potential idea with the tight, corporate-wide integration.
They still have the Yahoo! Finance, which I believe, is without competition. Focus on that, stay ahead of competition, if all the rest if falling apart anyway. And start killing the rest of the services which are making less and less money.
As much as I dislike the decisions Google made with dropping the Reader, Labs, etc., I understand the reasoning, and that is what Yahoo should have done as well.
Those two properties in themselves could be a separate company or the backbone to the two big players in fantasy sports.
It's too bad that that can't be said about the rest of their products.
Is 500px really anything to write home about though?
Seems even more marginal and doomed to fail than Flickr.
But I'm amazed by how many people are willing to give Mayer a pass despite so many people from inside the company at the C and VP level leaving for reasons that include a confused strategy and mismanagement, specifically from Mayer, has undermined any attempts at a turnaround.
Here's an excerpt from a Forbes piece:
> But perhaps none of these incidents damaged morale more than Mayer’s reorganization of Yahoo’s product teams. When Mayer launched the effort last fall, everyone agreed the existing structure had outlived its usefulness—for instance, mobile products was partitioned from other groups. But Mayer embarked on the process without laying out a grand vision for it. Instead, she began sketching out different scenarios in one-on-one meetings with various executives, floating one plan by one exec and a different by another. Unable to make up her mind, the process dragged on for months. “She went through 20 different permutations,” says an executive with knowledge of the process. “The product guys were twisting in the wind, not knowing what they were going to run.”
> Product releases slowed to a trickle, and a turf war brewed as executives became concerned with their futures. Jon McCormack, a star executive who had joined Yahoo in January from Amazon and was promised a broad engineering portfolio covering critical areas like mobile, landed in the vacuum created by Mayer’s indecision. He was gone by the end of February and now works for Google. When Mayer announced the new structure in April, it was too late. “That was the beginning of everyone losing faith,” says another senior executive. “That’s when people started to look for other jobs.”
I've seen a few people here ask why a company would care about their share price after they've gone public. It affects your company both internally and externally.
Having a rising share price means you can play a different game than the rest of your competitors.
Internaly it helps hire and retain good employees. Ask anyone who started at Microsoft in 1990 and worked their for a decade, or Google from 2004 until 2014. I'd bet most of them would have gladly given up their salary for more option grants.
Externally it means Facebook can pay 15 Billion for WhatsApp. I'm sure Yahoo was very interested in WhatsApp, but
1) couldn't justify paying 15 Billion almost 1/2 of their value for the app
2) Who in their right mind would take Yahoo stock over FB stock?
Sadly everything is going wrong for Yahoo, - Alibaba's shares have dropped since they went public
- it now looks like they are going to have to pay around 20% of their Alibaba holdings in tax ( about 7 Billion).
- Anyone who is going to buy some of their assets is going to have to pick up some money loosing businesses to get a deal done, which will make negotiations much tougher and probably mean the teams that get picked up are going to be cut down
My new favorite theory that is floating around is that Alibaba actually acquires Yahoo's Alibaba stake and Yahoo's front page. Microsoft still acquires the search assets and mail. Google acquires Flickr and the fantasy sports and finance are spun out into a new company./The comment about boring tenure definitely is big call to say the least and if one is to judge Marisa about her efforts over her career prior and during yahoo she was the CEO they needed.
Going into yahoo and transforming it is a big call and to draw parallels to Apple should not be compared. It's safe to say anyone going into yahoo would know that plugging the holes in the company was the main agenda and at least keeping momentum of operations and brand was a realistic fix, which Marisa did extremely well.
Tech companies with the latest and greatest innovative product is what all general spectators love to grade a company. It's sexy it gets media attention and creates a lot of noise within communities.
The fair way to look at her role would have been to stop the ship from sinking and if she is to be judged as a person which this article does, her career is dynamic and adaptable and it's safe to say no matter what the outcome any will want her with open arms.
1. Decimation of core revenue by everyone moving to mobile. 2. Core management not suitable to face future challenges. 3. Non manager employees not pulling in the same direction.
It was not her job to bet the farm, it was her job to revamp the people infrastructure and management infrastructure so that some innovative solutions bubble up from the middle that might be tried..
For that, they'd need a CEO with great deal-making and people skills and an intuitive grasp of what the average person cares and is going to care about.
Marissa Mayer doesn't really seem a great fit, since she seems more of an introvert great at perfecting a product, as opposed to someone great at communicating and making deals, and she is also probably not very close herself to the average Yahoo user.
She could possibly try to innovate in advertising technology though, although I'm not sure if it's possible to much better there.
As an investor I'd rather a fast death, salvage what capital I have remaining after the death, and invest it elsewhere. A slow death means that the long-term value of my money keeps decreasing over time as it's trapped in a weak investment with the hope that it may improve.
As an employee, I'd rather work for a company trying to accomplish something big than keeping the boat floating in the same direction. What's the difference between working for Yahoo and Comcast in this context? Both of them aren't doing anything all that innovative or interesting.
As an investor and an employee it's better to bet big and fail then to never try. If the company was established and successful I'd agree with you fully, but the company wasn't successful for nearly a decade before they brought her in. This, in my opinion, invalidates the 'stay the course' strategy.
You may not be interested in a slow death but there are firms who make their money on it; Lycos is still around (with employees!), Yahoo can continue to exist in a decreased fashion for another easy 20 years. Blowing the company away on a "big bet" like throwing all of your money into self-driving cars or something is a bad business move, why not sell it to one of the firms that will put it into milk-mode?
The thing that always struck me when I looked through tumblr is that essentially all of the "comments" are just the equivalent of likes or retweets and less actual comment threads. Always seemed like sort of a waste but I guess people use it more like a "richer" version of Twitter without the character limit and with easier embedding of media.
That may sound odd and awkward and in many ways it is, but the consequence is that every conversation connects you to many other people to "follow". And then the posts you get from them on your dash connect you to others. So with Tumblr, it's extremely easy to form "communities" - and to find them.
Yahoo is still relatively popular in some Asian countries because they prefer the everything on the same site web portal.
Of course, the former isn't really Yahoo's approach either.