Xiaomi's $45B Valuation Seen 'Unfeasible' as Growth Cools | Hacker News Reader

Xiaomi's $45B Valuation Seen 'Unfeasible' as Growth Cools

bloomberg.com

17 pointspavornyoh16 comments

The article doesn't dig into some important possible reasons why the growth may be slowing down. When a company is shipping at a large scale (~80 million devices a year), macro factors must be playing a role -- may be the # of phones shipped in the Chinese market is lower this year than expected?, or slowdown in consumer spending? or some other macro factor. The reason I say this is because the thesis presented in the article ("No Loyalty") isn't well substantiated. There are way too many counter anecdotes available where super loyal 'mi-fans' (thats what the loyal fans of this company are called) have stood in line for hours to purchase the latest phones (a la Apple).

Their growth has been quite phenomenal -- infact, they are probably the fastest company to reach $1B in revenue ever -- which isn't a small feat. But as size grows, doesn't growth inevitably slow down (for almost every company)?

Also, as another commenter has pointed out, they really are a internet of things company, more than a smartphone company. Seeing them just as a smartphone is missing the big picture.

I think viewing Xiaomi purely based on its smartphone sales is a bit shortsighted. I don't own a Xiaomi phone but I do have 3 Xiaomi air filters, several smart plugs, wifi router, digital thermometer, digital scale, etc. When I buy a new TV, it'll certainly be a Xiaomi TV along with a Xiaomi router which allows me access to the Xiaomi streaming service. The stuff they're doing with smart home devices is probably what's going to drive their valuation in the future.

They have horrible brand recognition in the US. To most American consumers, they may as well be a no-name brand.

I think it is safe to say that you are an exception of sorts. You've surrounded yourself with products from a company most people don't even know exists.

Xiaomi doesn't make their products available to American consumers, so that's not surprising.

Well to be fair, I live in Shanghai. Xiaomi's valuation is based primarily on their business prospects in China.

I wonder where people buy Xiaomi devices. They are not on Amazon. We run a large website about phones and sell other brands all day via affiliate programs. But never were able to find one via which we can sell Xiaomi phones.

Xiaomi only sells them in their online shop and only in specific regions like China, Hong Kong, Malaysia, Singapore and I believe India. There are no retailers of Xiaomi phones and everybody buys them online at their shop.

There are some grey market importers for other countries, but even those originally have to buy them online at their shop in a country where Xiaomi sells.

Ah, so they dont tackle the US at all? Why that? Surprising that I hear so much about them regardless.

My impression is that Xiaomi is unapologetic about copying other products without licensing the associated patents &c., but is sticking to markets where they won’t be sued for it. Samsung, which did the same thing, has been embroiled in extremely expensive legal wrangling for years.

Moreover, most US phones are sold under the cheap-up-front-with-2-year contract model, something Xiaomi doesn’t do as far as I know. Getting phones sold through cell carriers takes a lot of wheeling and dealing. More generally, scaling out to new countries takes lots of work on regulatory compliance, advertising/sales, customer service, etc. which they might not be ready to tackle.

https://www.efox-shop.com/ also has Xiaomi branded phones (and tablets). I've used them for buying Chinese phones in Europe.

They seem to mostly operate from mainland China but seem to have local warehouses from which they can send items via express shipping.

Personally, I found the following site nice and for my use (6" dual-sim phone) good enough, shortly after I set out on investigations to create my own comparison site. They also have links via alibaba.com and some other affiliate sites, so maybe that can help you to find more leads for sellers of devices.

http://www.devicespecifications.com/en

Usually chinese resellers like ibuygou, tinydeal, etc. Just do a search for them. Various forums have recommendations on where to buy them from. I see xiaomi items at some local shops too.

dx.com as well e.g. http://www.dx.com/p/xiaomi-4-quad-core-android-4-4-3-bar-pho...

They sell in limited geographies, so in India it is available on Amazon and Flipkart, Snapdeal etc.

http://www.mi.com/

> I wonder where people buy Xiaomi devices. They are not on Amazon.

I bought mine at amazon.de.

Is their management that terrible? As an outsider I would assume the opposite for their valuation/potential. They make reasonably good quality stuff that gets replaced almost annually.

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