My theory is that a strong economy must come before a robust democracy can take root. People have to want to have a political voice before they'll do things like form political parties, raise awareness of issues, contribute meaningfully to institutions. If most citizens are still worried about where their next meal is coming from, it's going to put a serious damper on their political will.

I don't really know how to turn a country's economy around, but the failure of the Arab Spring indicates to me that the solution may have to come from without rather than within. Strong, sustained foreign investment to build civic infrastructure may well be the only solution.

Alternatively, infrastructure can be as simple as cell towers. Perhaps in the next hundred years, we'll figure out how to build infrastructure that isn't so expensive. Cheap water purification, low-impact agriculture, these things can create business opportunities for the poor that can raise their quality of life. Then they'll eventually start wanting democracy.

An excellent question and you are right, without educated voters and a free and fair press, democracy can fail. However with a strong constitution that guarantees basic human rights and free speech, and first and foremost, separation of church and state, it can help, but it takes some enlighten people willing to go against the majority in Islamic countries today.

I remember what happened in Algeria in the 90's the elections were fairly democratic , and people voted for the worst kind of islamists. Same with Egypt. Tunisia today is an exception. In the rest of the arab world, people will elect Islamists whenever they are given the choice.

But maybe that is a necessary evil in order for the region to evolve. I think the west messed up enough with the politics in that area and actually prevented some kind of "natural" course of action.

I hope Tunisia succeeds in becoming the first true "free and democratic" nation of the middle east.

A democracy provides at least the minimum amount of feedback to the rulers. Even in the worst democracy the ruling group must convince a large percentage of the population that they are doing a better job than the alternative.

In a dictatorship on the other hand only a small percentage of the population must catered to (eg the officer corp).

Changing a vote from one party to another is pretty simple and anyone can do it. Starting or joining a protest/revolution is a lot harder.

In the short term, perhaps not. In the long term probably yes.