More Mexicans Leaving Than Coming to the U.S
pewhispanic.org
pewhispanic.org
I think this is the biggest problem. I don't really care if people want to relocate from one country to another. I just care that they do it legally and the two countries know about it. If you are paying a coyote to sneak you across a lightly patrolled stretch of the border in the middle of the night... you should know you are doing it wrong. "Securing the border" does not have to mean "lock all those dirty Mexicans out." It can just mean "let's make sure we know who is coming and going." I do recognize that the process can be problematic and could use an overhaul... but anytime anyone even mentions any type of reform, they just get shouted down. Because... racist!
The problem is that requiring them to do it legally is requiring many to not do it at all because those who do care if you can do it have made the laws so burdensome.
>If you are paying a coyote to sneak you across a lightly patrolled stretch of the border in the middle of the night... you should know you are doing it wrong.
If you see people paying someone money to take them on a very dangerous journey instead of going through your legal process, you should know the legal process is broken.
Is it impossible to acknowledge that sometimes, people will have conflicts, but that one has the right to decide how they'll be resolved, and the other doesn't?
Also, people moving to seek a better life for themselves and their children is pretty core to the existence of the US, so I would posit that it's a moral thing to do if people aren't breaking any other laws. By making legal immigration easier, you keep people on the side of the law and less tempted to break other laws, since, hey, in for a penny, in for a pound.
Ah, but see, no one cares what I think when designing systems. I'm just another programmer, you know?
The systems I get to design are things like: my career, my marriage, how I raise my kids.
And the sensible adaptations of my systems to unbounded immigration are: improve my lot, possibly at the expense of society's (making a bigger pie doesn't make sense if that simply attracts more pie eaters), prize relative status over absolute wealth (for the same reason), carry a gun, decrease my investment in society and retain options for moving abroad (same reason), and work hard to afford expensive real estate near "good schools" to send my children to elite colleges---elite you understand, not good enough, because with enough people, good enough, isn't.
And this is all antisocial behavior, and I don't really like it, and perhaps I will find a way to refrain from most of it and die in my bed in Oakland after ten years of philanthropy, surrounded by not only my multilingual grandchildren who, by dint of the virtues of hard work, collaboration, and generosity that I've taught, have managed to find their places in society, but also the neighborhood youths that I've mentored, Gran Torino style. That is the outcome I would be urged to pursue, and the one I personally find most fulfilling.
But: perhaps my neighbor Steve the auto mechanic is not so insufferably capable as I am, and feels betrayed by his country. What Steve feels is his due is loyalty, which means: discrimination. If loyalty to a company means that you stay there when you perhaps get a better offer from another, loyalty to a citizenry means that you favor its interests over some other body of people. And I do not get the sense that proponents of mass immigration favor the interests of the citizenry over migrants. I am happily ensconced at my well-paying tech job, so I will be OK---but what about Steve? What does he tell his kids when a Mexican (by pure chance---it could have been white, but this time, it wasn't) kid bullies them at school? Does he feel a moral obligation to consider the other child's interests? Is he likely to have a calm chat with the other child's parents?
What I am saying is: "You need to design your systems to deal with it" is equivalent to saying, "Fuck you," and while the moral and civilized response to "Fuck you" is "Have a nice day, sir," there are many who will not be able to afford that answer. Instead, they'll say "Fuck you." And (without the insulting meaning I ascribed to it earlier) you need to design your systems to deal with that.
Some people are poor. They'll risk everything to come to the US or other wealthy countries. That's the economic reality.
You have several options:
* Become like North Korea. Walls, "papers, please", etc...
* Ignore it and pretend like you can keep them out or that there's a viable "legal path". This is kind of what we're doing now.
* Make it easier for them to come legally so that you can keep track of who is here, kick out the people who actually misbehave, and otherwise run a lawful and orderly country.
This has some parallels with the "war on drugs".
"Dropit, you're ignoring reality, people will come whatever official attempts are made/there is not the political will to do what it would take to maintain an actually strong border."
Yes, I know. And the incentives of that reality, for the elite, are to become rootless and disinterested (or worse: exploitative), while the proles just become resentful. I don't get the sense that anyone is making that connection.
No. This only applies when it is an legal outcome which has a legal means to achieve, but which large numbers are going with the illegal means. And it isn't about a moral high ground, because morals are tricky business and can differ extremely based on what moral system you choose to use. Instead, it is pointing out that the official system is broken (at least in regards to the issue) when so many decide to work around it.
I think the truth of the matter isn't one of the system being broken, but of a harder to publicly state mention that the official system is keeping out the people that are not wanted. But it means dropping the 'everyone can get in legally' shield.
This would be essentially the same group of people who are here illegally, and they're going to come anyway; the difference is that we'd know they're here, they have no disincentive to go back (because they can safely cross again), and they didn't risk their lives and fund coyotes and other predator criminals.
We'd still have people here illegally, because some won't qualify even for crossing light, and some come here expressly for criminal purposes. But this seems like an improvement.
It'd probably be far easier to catch them and point them out - no one much would likely feel sorry for them, and they'd likely stand out even among their own communities.
If you find yourself going down the road without a proper plan, you should know that you're doing something wrong. And a proper plan is one the government has approved as valuable and that justifies all the time and effort the government puts into evaluating plans.
Think of it this way. You have a door on your house. When people come over, they knock on the door and you let them in at your discretion. You know who is in your house. But once in, you don't have to follow them all over as they use the bathroom or get a glass of water. You have certain amount of trust that they won't slip away and try on all your underwear. However, if they do, you probably would ask them to leave and might not open the door for them next time.
There's a big, obvious difference between tracking the crossing of individuals across sovereign borders and monitoring/regulating the travel of individuals within a country. Ensuring that Carlos the Jackal doesn't fly into LAX is not the same as setting up a Stasi-like organization.
Clearly, there is a de facto difference in how we currently treat the two. But you seem to be arguing that there is a deep fundamental difference in kind that informs that policy. What is it?
I'm curious about your statement that "I just care that they do it legally and the two countries know about it." I understand the first part, but why do the two countries need to know about it? If the country they're entering has decided it would be OK for people to enter without telling them, what would be wrong with that? And why should the country they're leaving from have to know anything?
As for how countries actually do it, there are a lot of borders out there where you can legally cross without telling anybody, like the borders in the Schengen area (possibly excluding France at the moment, not sure what's going on with that) or the border between the UK and Ireland. Certainly, tracking is the norm, but it's not universal.
Oddly, there are some places with no real controls but where it is not legal to simply cross. Some of the US/Canada border is like that. You can just wander across in certain places, but you're required to present yourself to an immigration official if you do.
I suspect many are avoiding official counts.
On the other hand, Canada a couple of years ago started requiring Mexicans a Visa but now they are backing up and not requiring a Visa anymore....so in other words: illegal immigration is not a problem its a solution, not for the average guy on the street but for the guys at the very, very top.
Counted, sure. Counted you as Mexican, no. Remember, this is "Mexican" as in Mexican national, not latino/Hispanic as in culture or demographics.
So counting them in the net migration of Mexicans into and out of the US is quite appropriate (as would counting them in the net migration of Americans into and out of the US, were that the subject under discussion.)
[0] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mexican_nationality_law ; though they may face significant bureaucratic obstacles in establishing this if care was not taken by their parents prior to their return [1]
[1] http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/07/18/us-born-children-mi...
If that dynamic changes, or starts to change, I wonder what the effect on US demographics/culture/etc. will be.
Mexico's fertility rate is down to replacement level and the country won't be sending more.
Guatemala is packing 16MM people into a place the size of Maine, half of it malarial jungle and half volcanic mountaintop. The fertility rate is 4.0, setting population to double every generation. Honduras and El Salvador aren't far behind. Those Central American countries are desperately poor with illiterate majorities, the world's highest murder rates, and low educational attainment. Nearly half of Guatemalans don't even speak fluent Spanish.
Meanwhile Mexico is a well educated nation on the verge of first world incomes.
So the quality of migrants is not looking up. But the quantity certainly is.
Ninja edit for sarcasm tag.
Citation needed on the "more than replaced" claim.
http://www.pewhispanic.org/2015/09/15/the-impact-of-slowing-...
"Among all Latinos, there were 14.1 million immigrants in 2000. By 2005, that number reached 16.8 million, and by 2013, there were 19 million Latino immigrants in the U.S."
Even in the down-economy period (2005-2013), there was a net increase. And those numbers exclude their US-born children.
The same pattern is present among all Latino origin groups, though for three—Ecuadorians, Mexicans and Nicaraguans—the number of immigrants has declined since 2010 (for details, see Appendix Table A2).
The foreign-born share of Salvadorans, for example, fell from 76% in 2000 to 59% in 2013—the largest percentage point decline of any of the six largest Hispanic origin groups. Similarly, Dominicans, Guatemalans, and Colombians all had decreases of over 13 percentage points in their foreign-born shares over the same period. Mexicans, the nation’s largest Hispanic origin group, also saw a decline, though it was only 8 percentage points since 2000.
http://www.pewhispanic.org/2015/09/28/modern-immigration-wav...
Mexico specifically appears to have finally hit an economic level of opportunity where people wanting to leave to the US has slowed down significantly. However, the rest of Latin America isn't doing nearly as well as Mexico. Mexico's GDP per capita is now above Russia, Brazil, Turkey; and their unemployment rate is at 3.8% (4.4% urban). China's manufacturing labor costs are now above Mexico's; that will continue to increase US manufacturing shifting some things away from China and to Mexico, bolstering their economic performance.
Language is a barrier, though. PR is a barrier. The business culture is more Wall Street or Bourbon Street than Sand Hill Road. Still, it's a great place to come to.
China's wages and taxes are both still lower, but Mexico is enormously less corrupt and your trade secrets won't get stolen. It's a whole lot easier and cheaper to start a business as an outsider and dispute resolution isn't quite so insanely biased.
http://www.pewhispanic.org/2015/09/15/the-impact-of-slowing-...
There was a recent NPR/PRI piece discussing how the only reason the dairy industry in Wisconsin is still afloat is due to immigrant labor being paid below legal wage limits. Its not what I'd call "quality of life" for these folks, and when you're badly hurt in a farming accident (did you know that farming is one of the most dangerous professions in the US? neither did I), you've got to take care of it yourself.
Undocumented immigration is an easy problem to solve. If you're a company employing non-citizens without legal approval, the penalties start at $1 million/employee.
That's not going to happen though, because consumers want services and products at extremely low prices (which would be pushed up by more expensive labor) and businesses want to stay in business (who probably couldn't if they had to pay wages dictated by law).
http://wisconsinwatch.org/2009/11/a-delicate-existence-undoc...
http://wisconsinwatch.org/2009/11/immigrants-now-40-of-state...
http://www.npr.org/2011/08/31/140086117/e-verify-rattles-ner...
The entire point is to bankrupt the company immediately. If the fine can be included as a cost of doing business, its not effective.
The question is, can you devise a method where if the employer does everything right in verifying someone's right to work in the country, they won't be held liable? That's the trick. To squeeze out any chance of fraud on either side, with damning consequences for breaking the rules (I'd also accept criminal liability for those involved in lieu of bankrupting a concern).
A fine that is equal to the wages saved should create an incentive to pay at least that wage. Perhaps also give half of the fine to anyone, including an undocumented worker, who chooses to report the violation.
Again, I don't believe that's going to incentivize legal behavior. It's too low.
10x wages saved, directly paid to the undocumented worker might be the way to go.
If they're taking personal risks and spending their own money to get to places like that, perhaps it is better than what they left behind.
My hunch is that its a combination of this, along with things getting "worse" comparatively speaking in the US.
http://www.tradingeconomics.com/mexico/gdp-growth
GDP has not changed significantly in the past 10 years. With oil supplies running low, the government is going to have increasing pressure on finding money.
A few men from a village would take the long trek to El Norte, work for a few dollars an hour at backbreaking work for eight months and come home. They'd be rich and buy new pickup trucks. Pretty girls would marry them. They'd run out of money and go back on the dangerous trip to El Norte. Kids would be growing up without fathers and the local economy would collapse because Gringo money was driving up the price of homes and supplies above what you could earn on local farms. More and more men had to join them on the way to El Norte for eight or ten months a year in cold or steaming hot dorms crowded, hurting, vermin infested, saving cash to come home. You had to send your menfolk just to survive.
It was a permanent exploitation scheme, hurting everyone but rich Gringo businesses.
I'd build a wall and enforce the border in a second if I could, just for the good of the migrants. I'm glad more are putting down their buckets where they are and making good. Too bad about the Guatemalan villages the Gringos are draining now in the same way.
Would that have an impact on the behavior of a rational business? Let's do some math, admitting that this is kinda a Fermi problem.
So if you are running a limited-service restaurant that employs poor people, and you have an employee working a 40-hr workweek at 7.35/hr, their yearly pay is $15,288. On top of that, you have an additional 15.3% ($2,329.88) [1] to pay for the employer's portion of social security and Medicare tax, $420 for unemployment tax[2], and employer portion of federal income taxes[3] of 10% on the first $11.525 ($922.50) and $15 on the rest ($555.45). And payroll for that employee costs $19,455.83. For a limited service restaurant, payroll overall costs 25%-30%[4] of gross revenue. So (making the unjustified simplifying assumption that revenue comes from employees roughly proportional to their payroll costs.) for each such employee, the business makes $64,852.78-$77,823.34 in net revenue per employee. Or, $45,396.94-$58,367.50 in revenue per employee after payroll but before other cost (goods, equipment, utilities, rent, etc) which we will all assume are fixed. So, if a business is risk-neutral, all costs other than labor don't effect decision-making, and we don't account for the possibility of going out of business then your policy is a bad idea if the probability of accidentally hiring an illegal immigrant and getting caught is 4.54%-5.84%.
What is the probability of hiring an illegal immigrant if a business hires someone who, to them, looks Hispanic?
If there are 11 million[5] illegal immigrants in the US. Let's say 7.35 million[6] of them are Hispanic/Latino in appearance (I'm talking about racial discrimination here, so the diversity of Hispanic peoples gets reduced to one question: Does a business owner think they "look Hispanic"?). One source[7], whose neutrality I doubt, claims that 75% of illegal immigrants have forged documents like social security cards. It would make sense that they would want to obtain documents that allow them to work, so lets assume that's true. So than means 5.5 million Hispanic people with forged documents. There are 55 million[8] Hispanic people living in the U.S. That means that 10% of them are people with forged employment documents. Accounting for the fact that illegal immigrants are more likely to be in the low-income workforce than Hispanic citizens, it's probably higher.
What is the probability of getting caught? I'm on a phone and too tired to continue this calculation and I'm on my phone. But if it was 0.45-0.58, then it would be prohibitively expensive for a risk-neutral rational business whose only cost was labor to hire someone who looked Hispanic. That sounds to like economic conditions that are unfavorable to poor Hispanic people.
Of course, you could fix this by adding a Mens Rea component to your proposal.
[1] https://www.irs.gov/pub/irs-pdf/p15.pdf, page 31
[2] ibid, page 35
[3] ibid, page 46
[4] http://smallbusiness.chron.com/percentage-should-restaurant-...
[5] http://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2015/07/24/5-facts-abou...
[6] ibid: 5.9 million from Mexico; pulled out of my ass: 1.45 million from elsewhere in Central America, South America, and the Caribbean. I'm fudging the fact that there are black people and white people from those regions. Better numbers welcomed.
[7] I doubt it's neutrality but it does make sense that illegal immigrants would want forged documents. How hard it is to counterfeit? I don't know. http://cis.org/IdentityTheft
[8] http://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2015/06/25/u-s-hispanic...
The drop started with the economic downturn in '08 -- long before Trump's anti-immigration tirades.
An equally silly reading of the data is that Mexicans wanted to live in the US because Bush was president, but they hate Obama so they stopped coming and started leaving.
All signs point to this being economically driven.
It's quite feasible that other criteria (taxes, job creation, etc) contribute more to a candidate's popularity.
Isn't the economy now better than when Bush was the president?
But neither has done much immigration enforcement.
The Mexican economy has done very well over the past 30 years. It started very backwards but finally passed the US economy for the first time in opportunities for many people in 2007. That was partly because of the US crisis. Mexico has continued to grow since then.
That's an extraordinarily precise date for meeting a very vague threshold ("passed the US economy...in opportunities for many people"). What does this mean in concrete terms, and where is the evidence supporting that it was achieved in 2007.
And no Mexico did not start the war, America stole a bunch of their territory, Texas, by annexing it. Texas, the Lone Star Republic which essentially wanted to be its own country. That usually leads to war.
Mexico has no greater claim over that land, than did Spain before it. You might as well say Mexico stole nearly all of their current land from native tribes that existed there thousands of years ago.
To paraphrase Lincoln: "can you inform us of the actual spot on our soil where US blood was spilled?"
https://www.archives.gov/education/lessons/lincoln-resolutio...
Mexico attacked and defeated America. At first.
Had Mexico not gone to war with Texas and the USA, it is very likely it still would have lost all that territory to rebellion.
The secession tension grew into Mexico's first civil war (Reform War of 1857-1861), which ended just as the USA-CSA civil war (1861-1865) was starting.
And if we're talking "at gun point", Guadalupe-Hidalgo was negotiated with USA occupying Mexico City. There was serious consideration given to annexing all of Mexico. Really, one major reason Mexico still exists at all is good ol' USA racism: all those Indians and mixed-race people would get to vote and elect their own representatives. Also, would the Mexican states be slave states or free states? So the USA pretty much just took only as much land as it could fill up with free white people, and paid off the loser.
And so they each got to have their own separate civil wars, instead of one big one.
Singling out the US as some sort of unprecedented evil for doing what everybody else has always done is likely the cause of the downvotes.
Touchy. I never did that. But you assume. I am simply pointing out that the Western States were Mexican. So for Mexicans to come to America to inhabit them is only natural. Human immigration is also as old as human history.
It's the Americans who have a problem with the Mexicans. Mexicans have no problem with the fact that the US stole a bunch of their territory a mere 150 years ago. They allow millions of Americans in to their country each year.
The Apache would like a word with you.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Santa_Cruz_de_Nuca
I can't imagine how miserable it must have been for people used to generally warm and sunny climes to try and eke out an existence in such a cool, wet, northerly place.
That's an inherently collectivist premise. You're claiming that people are somehow connected to, or tied to arbitrary geographic boundaries. It's absurd and an insult to the people that live there.
You might as well claim that Americans of Irish heritage, are inherently prone to want to return to Ireland, as if drawn by some kind of ancestral magnet. That's obviously not the case. Or you could just skip to the logical conclusion on your premise: Mexicans must all return to Africa, it's only natural since that's where all of humanity originated.
Honestly, I'm kind of amazed with how little political violence there is (like, zero) around the US-Mexico border considering the history here. I also tend to share your opinion about the war, which is pretty much Lincoln and Ulysses S Grant's opinion about the war, which is that it was unjust.
Look at the border wars that go on out there in the world. Where is our border war? There isn't one. Mexican immigrants want to peacefully live and work in the territories that were (again, I'd say "in my opinion", but instead let's say "Lincoln and Grant's opinion") pretty egregiously annexed through force with no justification.
To me, this peaceful border is a giant gift that the US treats like some kind of curse. The biggest problem as far as I see it is a violent drug cartel war that (in my opinion, not Lincoln or Grant's opinion) is at least to some extent a product of a very misguided drug policy in the US.
Beyond that, I'd prefer to see us mimize the relevance of this border. And at this point, data suggests there won't be some mass movement north anyway (for all I know, you might start seeing more US citizens moving south).
The Republican Heritage foundation proposed Obamacare in 1994. Republican Mitt Romney pushed Obamacare into law in Massachusetts in 2004. But when Obama did it in 2010, Republicans became nasty and viciously opposed forever to Obamacare.
Likewise with Republicans Lincoln and Grant. The Republicans were all for annexing the southwest in 1846. Their first presidential candidate was John Charles Frémont who led the fight for the Bear Flag Republic against the Mexicans. But let Democratic president James Knox Polk take credit and the Republicans are implacably against it forever.
These things have all happened before and they will happen again. Typical Republicans.
"I'm kind of amazed with how little political violence there is (like, zero) around the US-Mexico border"
There's zero nationalistic violence because Mexicans aren't inclined to political violence over abstract questions. Take their land and the streets will run with blood but move the border and change which capital collects their taxes and they're tranquil. It's the exact opposite of the 'refugees' that Europe is taking.
There's a fair bit of political violence on the Mexican border over America's Drug War, though. It's not ISIS level but more than enough fighting for my tastes.
The US stole its original territory from England, who had stolen it from the previous inhabitants. The US continued that trend--taking sovereignty over territory via application of force--until hitting the Mississippi. Then, a rare purchase agreement between the US and Napoleon, who had taken land from Spain, who had taken it from rebels, who had taken it from Spain, who had taken it from a previous iteration of France, who had, of course, taken it from the previous inhabitants.
Southwest of Louisiana, that land was added to the US by frequent petitions to join the federation. Previously independent, taken by rebellion from Mexico, who had previously taken it by rebellion from Spain and France, who had taken it from the previous inhabitants.
Mexico took this badly, and in the ensuing war with the US, Alta California changed sovereignty to the US, with monetary compensation to Mexico. The land was previously held by rebels who objected to war with the US, who took it from Mexico, who took it from Spain, who, as usual, took it from the people who had already been living there.
So let's not argue too much about who stole what from whom. The elites like to redraw the maps, as the people on the actual land care little for the border invisibly whooshing over their heads.
And really, the US did pay Mexico $15M (in 1848-1853) for it, even though Mexico had already lost control of much of it to rebels and malcontents, just like what happened in Texas. A bit later, the US purchased Mesilla from Mexico, and there is the modern border.
I doubt Americans would care much about Mexican immigration if our politicians had not selected immigrants as a scapegoat group. They like to blame unemployment on worker competition instead of capital flight, because that makes it look less like their fault.
About 2-300k total population in CA, NM, AZ, NV, UT, and CO. That was well under the population of several native tribes on the same land.
And the ones in NM were not even officially Mexicans; they were loyal to the Spanish crown and refused to pay taxes to Mexico City. When General Kearny arrived in Santa Fe '46, there was a parade instead of a battle because Mexico and the Navaho would have to stop raiding them now they were American.
The Mexican claim to America's southwest was just a line on a map -- total indefensible and non credible. In fact, it was just like America's border enforcement today.