Signs Point to Unencrypted Communications Between Terror Suspects
theintercept.com
theintercept.com
The attacks have played right into the hands of parties with political interests lying in wait. For months articles on one or the other side of the encryption "debate" have been produced by news organizations at a low hum. Now that something, anything, loosely relevant has occurred, they can now point to this as further evidence in support of whatever position was espoused over the course of the preceding months. It strikes a person who pays attention to such things as rather methodical.
There's a reason journalists are also referred to as vultures.
If you're interesting in how media spin works, I have found Trust Me, I'm Lying by Ryan Holiday eye opening. It focuses more on the marketing aspect, but it works for anything. He for instance described how you can spin controversy out of nothing in order to promote products.
These are all pretty big issues directly related to the events. How long should we wait before it's appropriate to analyze them in public discourse? Imo, worse than appearing eager to capitalize on others' suffering is all the speculation before having hard details about the matter. But some pundit inevitably lights a match in a room full of fireworks (figuratively speaking), and everyone else rushes to defend their position as well.
How do you know how many attacks would have taken place if not for that spending?
But to answer your question, to the best of my knowledge, it's widely reported that there is no evidence of terrorist attacks that have been prevented. NSA claims of 54 terrorist attacks being prevented are widely reported as false[1], mass surveillance and security theater is considered by (at least some) experts an ineffective way to stop terrorists[2], and most of the people arrested for terrorism seem to be mentally ill individuals entrapped by law enforcement[3], as well as a whole host of other sources effectively implying "none" that I don't think are worth taking the time to exhaustively cite. You can always search for "terrorist attacks prevented by NSA." If there are any examples, I'd be interested in knowing.
Alternatively, it could be that efforts of law enforcement raise barriers to terrorism such that much is prevented indirectly, but that would be a speculative conclusion until there's some evidence it's actually the case. Successful terrorists able to plan and communicate in plaintext using SMS and discussing their goals in their English-language propaganda (Dabiq) doesn't really lend credence to the preventative costs argument, either.
[1] https://www.propublica.org/article/claim-on-attacks-thwarted...
[2] https://digg.com/2015/why-mass-surveillance-cant-wont-and-ne...
[3] https://www.ted.com/talks/trevor_aaronson_how_this_fbi_strat...
When was the last time you read someone say, "And this latest attack has changed my mind...". Almost never. Mostly it's "And this latest attack proves my agenda is right..."
It can't all be sociological normalization, can it?
Really?
Because apparently it's necessary to burn the straw, no one is against e.g. the surveillance required on the part of police in order to avoid indiscriminately arresting everyone all the time. I.e., if police have good reason to believe that a law has been broken, it's probably appropriate to make an arrest. If they don't, it's probably not. Some targeted surveillance is appropriate to distinguish those two situations.
The good parts of academia, policy journals, think tanks, etc.
But that doesn't get into mainstream media because it's boring.
(Whether that stuff affects actual policies undertaken is a good question. I think it does, both directly, I.e. politicians read them, and indirectly by influencing the elite, who influence politicians.)
There's also government agencies who make decisions based on public comments, both in law and in policy. There may be other influences, but I think the actual argument do matter somewhat.
I think the better question is why can't we be more rational/scientific about this. Forget gut feelings, put down a spreadsheet (at least) how many instances of this statistic correlate with this hypothesis. If it doesn't work, clearly your intuition is wrong, and there's nothing wrong with that, you just need to sharpen your intuition. I'd like to see government work like that, but neither side seems to want to do something like that.
But that already presupposes the answer to one of the major arguments. There's a fair philosophical case to be made for "it doesn't matter if the empirical net is positive or negative: the bottom line is that I have a natural right to defend myself and my family, even if other people cannot or choose not to do so themselves".
Sorry, I don't mean to start the actual gun debate here. I'm just trying to show that the underlying question presents a false choice fallacy. It's incorrect to simply ask, "should the government make this regulation or not?". There's space for a lot more nuance in there: "is this a good idea or a bad idea? If it's a good idea, is it something that should be part of the private sector's purview? If not, can government do it effectively?"
Say you have a liberal who says, "regardless of whether we go into debt or not," since that is an objectively measurable observable, "we should spend more on education because education is something I value." That already has a problem: it assumes spending more on education increases the quality of education; therein lies a testable hypothesis that we can demonstrate true or false. If a liberal is offended by that notion, that is what I'm arguing against--for me, ideas just aren't "so obvious" that they can't be demonstrated, if it's true, there better be evidence for its truth. If, for example, we spend more on education than other nations and we still have subpar outcomes (which is true, actually), then the stated reasoning "go into debt because we value education anyway" contains a false assumption and thus the argument is fallacious.
Also, other assumptions could be violated here. To further use my analogy, another assumption the liberal has underpinning his arguments is that a state exists to provide education. If you're in debt to the point where your government bonds are considered crap by the market, your decision to spend more money on education could threaten the existence of your state. Therefore, once again, you're making an argument and not rigorously considering whether assumptions are/will remain true or not.
Of course, you could change the "axioms" of the universe of discourse and just enshrine "spending on education is good regardless of whether it actually improves education or not," as a true, and at that point, you're right that I can no longer argue with you. However, I almost always hear an argument with a "because": "the right for free speech for the press is good because it ensures they report fairly and honestly and make their fellow citizens," or, "health-care as a right is good because the government providing healthcare to citizens increases the quality of their care and wellness." Whenever someone says this, there is something in there that is testable and they'd better be willing to demonstrate it, especially if my tax dollars are going to fund their ventures.
Hypothesis testing suffers from being very easy to put a thumb on the scales. Especially if you manufacture a lot of slightly variant hypotheses and pick the ones which are significant. This turns into whataboutery.
"Let's not rush to politicize events" is just a defense of the status quo. It's only as noble as the status quo.
"Both sides are obstinate in their positions" ignores the fact that sometimes one side is right. If I'm obstinate about A and you're obstinate about B, it matters a hell of a lot whether there is a definitive correct answer between A & B. Whether we have lots of guns or no guns in society is a matter of preference and subject to debate, but whether there would be more mass shootings or less mass shootings if we had more or less guns, there's a definitive answer to that question.
It's not a sin to be obstinate about asserting a truth just because some people are obstinate about asserting falsehoods.
It's obvious if you pay any attention that approximately nobody is examining facts and then reaching conclusions. They all reached their conclusions long ago, and now they use facts to justify those conclusions when suitable.
That's all you need to say about Washington. Fix that and most/all of the other problems would evaporate.
Reminds me of reading about the drug decriminalization in Portugal. I was astounded that a bi-partisan committee just decided to look at the facts instead of doing the usual thing. Portugal seems lightyears ahead of the US, in this regard.
I admit my statement is a bit hyperbolic, but those who actually change their minds make up a frighteningly small minority.
The media response on this was so predictable it was like clockwork:
* Conservative media immediately kicks off talking points in regards to, "if more people were carrying guns this wouldn't have happened!"
* "Where's the outrage from Muslims?"
* "Outraged Muslims say the attackers aren't true Muslims because Mohammed forbids killing innocents."
* "It had to have been Syrian refugees!"
* "Can't we just bomb the fsck out of Syria?"
* All manner of insinuations that all Muslims are dangerous and we should "kick them out" or prevent them entry into the our country.
...then, attempting to time things just right the spy organizations all over the world ask for everyone to give up their privacy so they can "stop terrorists".
What we won't see in the major news media/popular talking heads:
* Outrage that despite the billions upon billions invested in spying programs no one was able to predict or stop this attack. Proving that the vast spying powers granted to governmental organizations don't work.
* Factual stories pointing out that encryption with back doors won't be used by terrorists so it's useless against terrorists by definition.
* Investigations into why the mass collection of everyone's personal details didn't work and can't work to stop these kinds of attacks.
* Informative stories about what every-day people or politicians can do to hurt terrorists and stop terrorism. For example, there will be no one even remotely connecting the dots between oil usage and terrorism. Or how there's a direct link between a country's oil revenues and democracy.
In fairness, we don't exactly find out about the successes...
The fight has to be done procedurally or we'll end up shelling Parisian suburbs.
You would think that the spooks are dying for some good PR given the hits they have taken post-Snowden.
http://www.nytimes.com/2015/05/06/world/europe/french-legisl...
The "French NSA" already exists. There's nothing to "start up".
Their budget isn't on par with the US but they already have more leeway than US authorities when it comes to invading everyone's privacy. I'm actually quite curious what more they could possibly want in terms of legal authority to spy on everyone.
(of course, talking about "The Media" is always problematic because it's difficult to sum up as one blob. There are, of course, bad actors in the blob)
> Or how there's a direct link between a country's oil revenues and democracy.
Yeah, oil prices drop and Alberta and Canada promptly elect left-of-center governments.http://www.voxeu.org/article/oil-and-democracy-new-insights
Well-established democracies with diverse economies such as Canada are mostly immune to these effects.
More reading:
https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/middle-east/2011-08-...
What's interesting about that article is how it predicts unrest in the Middle East surrounding the control over oil resources. By obtaining control over oil resources Daesh has secured their ability to continue operating. Take away that resource and they're likely to die off pretty quickly.
"If banning encryption would stop terrorists using it, why don’t they just make terrorism illegal and be done with it?"
> I love how Republicans believe that outlawing guns won't stop criminals from having guns while at the same time believing that outlawing encryption will keep criminals from using encryption.
> Encryption methods are far easier to transport and spread illegally than gun are.
Sure, many of the politicians seem to support outlawing encryption. But that's true of both parties is it not?
http://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2015/05/the-gop-is-dy...
http://www.people-press.org/2015/04/07/a-deep-dive-into-part...
You and I both want a world where encryption is ubiquitous and easy to use. Where text messages are somehow encrypted-by-default. That does mean in this instance police would have had to use some other means to apprehend Abaaoud. That's a cost of everyone having privacy. Banning encryption will stop the majority of violent/petty criminals who are not educated and poorly funded from using it. I won't claim otherwise. I think the answer, as always, is educating people and making sure they have decent responsibilities and resources at their disposal so they won't want to do harm. People who can trust their government to give them privacy and protect their interests won't lash out.
It's not an either/or situation, banning encryption is designed primarily to stop criminals from using it. It is also effective. It's obviously not 100% effective, it's probably more like 75% effective. I think you're assuming that most of the people arguing for prohibition are dreaming of a police state, and I think you're constructing an oversimplification that doesn't acknowledge the facts.
Privacy, anonymity, and encryption protect the people who need them only when they are pervasive. The same way vaccines protect people who are susceptible to infection. Saying "I have nothing to hide" is akin to not getting a flu shot because you feel healthy. That's not how it works. You need that herd immunity or the virus will find cracks to survive in. When you refuse a vaccine or allow invasion of privacy because you don't feel threatened you're putting yourself ahead of people who are most at risk of being harmed by the disease or put in danger by having personal details become known.
There are obviously a lot of people who think that hard-encryption shouldn't be available to the public. If you're not willing to engage with them you're just going to get steamrolled. In matters of law, the squeaky wheel gets the grease.
http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/dec/11/-sp-isis-the-in...
When people left Bucca, they had written each other's names & numbers on the elastic of their underwear.
They also responded to Anonymous' threat toward ISIS by suggesting techniques to secure Comms and what to avoid.
http://www.businessinsider.com.au/isis-anonymous-statement-2...
I would suggest that this cell did not use protection but I am confident the larger ISIS network is not so transparent. My suspicions would be that most Comms is via word of mouth.
Terrorists used unencrypted communication -> government will want to spy on everyone's unencrypted content more.
Terrorists used encryption -> Government wants to restrict encryption.
Instead discussion should be around what is already legal but wasn't done and why.
How soon till we get a staged terrorist event, or a staged communication from a legit one where the focus is on how they used encrypted communications?
Clearly people in power want this level of control, so the question is what lengths they will go to in order to ensure they get it.
Encryption or not, signs point to meta data collection being absolutely essential to tracking down these pricks' location.
Oh, nobody's arguing for doing that? Hmm, why not?
It shows two main things:
1) Mass drag-net style surveillance programs are not very effective.
2) Banning encryption will have minimal-to-no effect on improving mass drag-net style surveillance programs.
This means, to date, the only "terrorist plot" thwarted by the NSA mass drag-net style surveillance program remains that one guy who tried to send $8,500 to the Taliban (and was promptly arrested)[1].
[1] http://www.washingtonsblog.com/2013/10/nsa-spying-did-not-re...
The hands-up "Well, terrorism happens. Nothing to do about it." sentiment of many in our community is obviously not resonating with the general public. If we don't provide serious alternatives, they will continue pushing these sorts of methods to greater and greater extremes.
We absolutely do not owe the government to protect anyone from anything. You have more to lose from government agents like police forces than terrorists.
They are investing in total surveillance because they want to make their civilian population submit to their wills. Just stop giving credence to their lies.
I suspect he was identified because there was a person on the ground, talking and interacting with real people. Anyone that thinks this war will be won in an armchair using a PC or by dropping bombs is deluding themselves.
[1] http://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/nov/16/abdelhamid-abaa...