On one hand you have the common whiteboard coding interviews popular among the big tech players (and much of the rest of the industry). I'm definitely biased here, as someone who is average/below average at these types of interviews but an above average (I hope) developer, but I don't think these interviews are very good indicators of on-the-job performance.
On the other hand you have many startups who won't even interview you if you don't have side projects or open source contributions to show. As someone who has side projects to show, I understand that most people do not, and it's unrealistic to expect everyone to.
The best way I can think of to predict how someone will perform is to have them do something relatively close to what they'd actually be doing, like going over some of your actual code with them and asking them to talk about what it's doing, and doing some pair programming with them on an actual computer.
Has anyone had success with something like that?