Sortition
en.wikipedia.org
en.wikipedia.org
For politics, one approach would be sortition applied to those in the 99th percentile on a widely used standardized test like the SATs -it's important that this test be used outside politics, too. Sortition would then be applied to narrow down the pool from ~160000 (about the number of people with sufficient scores over a 10 year time-span) to say a few hundred, a few dozen, or less and then a conventional election from there. Though, you may need very attractive salaries to ensure those elected choose to serve as most don't have an interest in politics - perhaps a ridiculous pension for life after a few years of service.
The amount should not be so large that you'd need the gigantic ad campaigns you need today to be elected, but large enough that you need support outside your immediate family. Maybe ~20. Gathering their 'votes' demonstrates that you're at least interested in the job, and the element of trust is still there (someone trusts you would do a good job, and not doing that would be a betrayal).
One of the nice properties of sortition is it combines well with many other forms of selection. However, this seems to ruin the point:
>Gathering their 'votes' demonstrates that you're at least interested in the job, and the element of trust is still there (someone trusts you would do a good job, and not doing that would be a betrayal).
A big plus of sortition is it does not maximally select for the people most interested in political power. Having to be elected or self-selected in such a fashion would mar this.
For example, if we want to exclude congress(wo)men who are powermad egomaniacs, we start by asking knowledgable sources to rank candidates by lust, greed, and vanity, then exclude from random selection all those who fall below a certain threshold. Voila, no more psychos (golddiggers) joining the the Washington Elite.
The lovely part of Sortition is that with a large number of fair & knowledgable 'rankers' (or 'standardized tests') it's basically impossible to game the system.
So I vote 'yea' for Sortition.
Pn Pan >> Pm Pam
If we assume we can't do better than random screening for malicious, we have a fixed Pn, Pm. So the crucial thing is to find incentives so that non-malicious actors are the least likely to take the job.
A good pre-screening (if possible) would have to raise the RHS or lower the RHS. For example, if the major incentive for malice is monetary, sampling from wealthy citizens could lower Pm, but it might also sightly lower Pan, so you may have to spend more resources to guarantee Pan=Pam=1.
Just to get an idea, in their model politicians make many laws that help the population a little bit, instead the randomly selected citizen make make laws that help the population a lot, but they make only a few laws. And things have been defined in such a way that the optimal solution happens when mixing the two. They do a pretty good job at analyzing this simulation, the problem is that the simulation has little to do with the real world.
(I read the paper a few years ago so I hope I'm remembering things correctly).
From a theological point of view it allows for the Holy Spirit to act among us.
From a personal standpoint it works well as it allows candidates to put their names forward without the embarrassment of losing based on popularity.
Presumably then, the researchers who get the most funding would be the ones who are the best at writing grant proposals, and they may or may not be doing the best research or researching the most important things. In theory, there could be brilliant researchers working on important things who don't get any money because they lack the ability to persuade people to give it to them.
One of my "if I had a billion dollars" dreams is to set up a foundation that would randomly award research grants to field of qualified applicants.
I think it's the same problem with elections. Governing and campaigning are two different skills. Elections elect people who are good at campaigning, but may or may not be good at governing.
Maybe something like sending a verification email with a link to a captcha. Not too much of a nuisance to do for one application, but unsustainable for submitting a million applications.
Edit: Alternately, an even lazier idea: Randomly award the grant from the pool of applicants rejected by other institutions.
This doesn't really change your conclusion, that grant writing is an important skill for acquiring funding but it's not about impressing the funding institution, it's about impressing fellow scientists.
More fundamentally the peer review process can't actually accurately sort good proposals from outstanding proposals, but we only have the money to fund a fraction of the outstanding proposals. Under these conditions just being honest and moving to a system where all good proposals are put into a lottery and funded by chance would be better approach.
>Random-sample voting can be used locally, nationally, regionally, or even globally, with results that are more irrefutable than with current elections but at less than one-thousandth of the cost.
Gotta love recursion.
That's a risk, but I don't think its the biggest even within the "balance of power between officeholders and X" category of risks; I think the biggest in that category is the shift in the balance of power between office holders and professional interest group influencers (lobbyists et al.) who aren't going to be randomly selected short-timers that get swapped out every few years, they are going to be long-term career professionals representing entities with lots of resources, durable interests, and a commitment to achieving them.
OTOH, sortition doesn't have to be a wholesale replacement for elections, either; it can complement them (as it does now, you just expand the scale.)
Say, have an additional house of the (state or federal, though some of these powers would be more familiar and perhaps appropriate at the state level) legislature (the "House of Citizens", say) selected by sortition, and given it some or all of the following powers: (1) To take any bill passed by the other house(s) and delay it by putting a hold of up to 90-days on it, after which the other houses must pass it again before it can move forward for executive signature or veto (if there are any changes to the version passed later, its treated as a new bill, and goes back to the House of Citizens again),
(2) To, instead of #1, invoke the power of referendum against any bill passed by the other house(s), such that if it is approved by the executive (or passed over executive veto), it is referred to a vote of the electorate at large who must approve it before it goes into effect,
(3) To directly initiate an initiative measure, that would go directly to a vote of the electorate at large, and become law with their support, without the need for approval of the other house(s) or the legislature,
(4) To (for a federal "House of Citizens"), on a supermajority vote, propose to the State legislatures amendments to the Constitution, without the other houses (the normal thresholds for ratification would still be required.)
Note that #2 and #3 are powers of the people in many states, but usually require an expensive process of gathering signatures on petitions to invoke, making them more accessible to well-funded groups; a sortition-selected body as an additional avenue could provide an alternate filter that might be less cost-driven.
"Only adult male Athenian citizens who had completed their military training as ephebes had the right to vote in Athens. The percentage of the population that actually participated in the government was 10 to 20% of the total number of inhabitants, but this varied from the fifth to the fourth century BC. This excluded a majority of the population: slaves, freed slaves, children, women and metics (foreigners resident in Athens). The women had limited rights and privileges, had restricted movement in public, and were very segregated from the men. Also excluded from voting were citizens whose rights were under suspension (typically for failure to pay a debt to the city: see atimia); for some Athenians this amounted to permanent (and in fact inheritable) disqualification." https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Athenian_democracy#Citizenship...
"In regards to Greek mythology, the ephebe was a young man or initiate, around the ages of 17-18, who was put through a period of isolation from his prior community, usually the world of his mother, where he was a child in the community. The ephebe would need to hunt, rely on his senses, on aggression, stealth, and trickery to survive. At the end of the initiation, the ephebe was reincorporated back into society as a man." https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ephebos
No, it can't. The likelihood of a particular degree of distortion (sampling error) can be exactly calculated; the actual degree of distortion cannot.
Sure, but its still not an advantage that sortition has over elections.
Its clear that Athens excluded large numbers of people from the pool of sortition (just as most democracies before the 20th Century excluded lots of people from the pool of electors), but its not clear to me how you get from that to the conclusion that exclusion is necessary for sortition any more than it is necessary for election.
Whether sortition can work in a large, inclusive, and diverse society is an interesting question. Democracy can only work in a high-trust environment where people don't expect their political rivals to say, have them murdered or nationalize major industries. The expansion of enfranchisement in the U.S. (at least) has also coincided with the marginalization of very extreme political movements, like Communism.
Say you have an electorate with a very radical far-left or far-right minority that is anathema to the rest of the citizenry? In an electoral democracy, the minority would be excluded in elections (in a first-past-the-post system) or by inclusion as a clear minority (in proportional representation). In a sortitive democracy, it seems like they would have to be excluded from citizenship, or the government would have to have to be large and diffuse enough that the damage of insane or dangerous people could be constrained by the rest of society.
When people are introduced to the idea of sortition, mostly they are shocked by the idea. Because what if you randomly choose a schizophrenic or Hitler to put in charge of the nuclear weapons? I think you have to encourage this tactic at a more familiar level—rather than a group of friends voting on a restaurant, allowing one person to pick after drawing straws. Which, surely, is not at all like giving them a professional military.
You are still leaping without justification from the way it was implemented and what was necessary for it to work; this is a form of post hoc ergo propter hoc.
Yes, it was implemented that way in Athens.
That doesn't establish that it had to be implemented that way to work, even in that environment.
But, I would like an approach where we randomly select "electors". They are sequestered, listen to the arguments of the candidates, hold several election rounds and finally come out with he elected officials. Like a jury. They would be dismissed after that.
On can justify this by arguing that non-voters are on the one hand not satisfied with the given choices and on the other hand indifferent to who is ruling them. So selecting the seats by lot might actually represent the will of the non-voters best.
Does anyone have a link?
It'll never happen, of course.
Representation is necessary because direct democracy is unworkable in large modern states, and because no-one has the time to study and understand every issue, particularly as many are highly technical and complex.
It would be absurd to choose one person, or even a small group, by sortition (or elections!), and give them legislative authority. The group chosen must be reasonably large, since a small group cannot be representative.
Regarding sortition and tests: Any test is designed to exclude some people. Who has the right to say that these people should be excluded?
A common idea is that by excluding the stupid, crazy, corrupt, ambitious, malicious… one will get "better" decisions, "better" legislation. But for any decision to be "good" it must first be equitable. Any exclusion renders the chosen group unrepresentative, and hence is inequitable. Better far to include these "undesirables": they will be relatively few in number, just as they are in society, and they will not vote as a unified block when decisions are made. Further, the more diverse the group, the better the quality of decisions (when this can be measured). It is not necessary for all the members of a group to be intelligent or well-intentioned for the group to make intelligent choices.
As for corruption and the undue influence of multinationals, lobbies, religious groups, and bureaucrats, I believe it is possible to greatly reduce or eliminate this with good design of the institutions.
For a fuller discussion of these issues and a proposal for a government based on sortition, you might be interested to read "Down with Elections!", available as an e-book on Smashwords, Amazon and Apple's iTunes bookstore, for about $1. (A blatant plug for my own work).
https://www.smashwords.com/books/view/570431 http://www.amazon.com/DOWN-ELECTIONS-C-Wallace-ebook/dp/B014... https://itunes.apple.com/us/book/down-with-elections!/id1032...
Or you can have it for free as a PDF (less convenient): https://www.dropbox.com/s/7oqo5paiwmwatsp/DWE_PDF.pdf?dl=0
Much of the information there is is of pretty low quality. It might of course just be such a bad idea that everybody smart enough to give high quality contributions on the topic does not want to waste their time with the idea. But if this is the case it is totally non obvious to me, and most criticism I've read seem to be from people that do not have a clear understanding of the potential advantages sortition might have.
Very briefly, for the uninitiated, the main potential advantage of sortition is that it would make political decision making a lot more democratic. People representative of the population at large would actually discuss to make the decision, instead of the citizens making their choice by casting one vote every few years among a set of very similar parties (I know, this simplifies the debate a lot, but it is the main idea). This is very interesting if you are of the opinion (as I am) that lack of democracy is a big problem of our political systems. I believe that most time politicians go agains the will of people they do so for the wrong reasons and with the wrong goals, and way too often.
The law of large number makes sure the randomness in sortition is limited and predictable. Whereas with elections there is a big number of arbitrary factors that can greatly influence the results.
Of course sortition in practice might have a number of problem often brought up, but none seems unsolvable to the point where it's not even worth exploring the idea further.
How do you separate expertise from decision power, while still being able to make proper use of the expertise? How to implement sortition in practice? Would they ever let us? Would people be able to handle the pressure? Would they accept the position? And all criticism to democracy in general applies even more to sortition.
I think however that if you talked about elections to somebody who never heard about it, you could come up with just as a big number of potential problems. I don't know if sortition really is a better idea, but maybe it's an idea worth thinking about.
I recently read this article on sortition that appeared on the Atlantic which I think is really good: http://www.theatlantic.com/education/archive/2014/05/the-cas...
Another good starting point for further exploration is the blog Equality by Lot: https://equalitybylot.wordpress.com/
With elections, there are constraints which make deviations from the preference of the electorate less likely the greater the salience of the issue is. Sortition distributes the issues on which the decisionmakers deviate from the represented population randomly, which means that salience of the issue does not affect the likelihood of deviation between the decisionmakers and the represented population.
This is a significant weakness in sortition compared to elections, that needs to be weighed against whatever advantages are identified for it.
Original message: But even for salient issues there are a lot of random factors in elections. Suppose there is a issue so important that everybody cares and votes based only on that issue. Suppose there are only two candidate, and they have a clear and opposing position on this issue so that things are very simple for voters.
Suppose candidate A gets 50,999,897 votes Suppose candidate B gets 50,456,002 votes
B can still win, as happened with Bush, depending on the voting system. This is just an example and of course depends on the specific voting system. The real point being that for sortition you have simple statistical guarantees, always, independently from salience.
In the book, England, late in a long and uneventful history, is governed by lot; a randomly-chosen individual is crowned King and given dictatorial powers. Eventually, the lot falls on a bored nihilist with a fondness for 16th-century uniforms, and within twenty years London is a patchwork of feuding principalities with antiquated weapons, beautiful heraldry, and a whole lot of innocent people dead.
This book confirms what you're saying: it's not very likely that a barking madman will be randomly chosen as dictator, but it only has to happen once.
(The strangest thing about it is that Chesterton saw the most troublesome belligerents, who at one point threaten to use a water tower as a sort of late-Victorian atomic bomb, as the good guys; their willingness to use violence brought beauty and dignity back to a pacific, indolent world. This book was written before Chesterton became Catholic, and its bored nihilism reflects his own feelings at the time; I strongly suspect that it had an influence on the development of fascism, given that Mussolini was a fan of Chesterton's.)
The Danish model of Consensus Conferences (laypeople brought in to work with experts on decision making), might be a good model to follow: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Consensus_conferences
To take a realistic example, let a panel of laypeople read 20 studies, half saying that smoking does cause cancer, and half saying that it doesn't. Then, let the experts of both sides speak to them (not needed to say that the ones defending it doesn't cause cancer are much more confident and charming than the others).
I don't think those people would have reached the correct conclusion.
All major media and academic outlets are, by definition, powerful. To have a megaphone, to have reach, to be able to have thousands or millions of people listen to your message, is the essence of power.
These media and academic outlets, along with political parties, major activist groups, lobbyists, NGO's etc, have evolved to be powerful within the current political framework. The feedback loop between their ability to send messages to the population, and then get votes in return, is what makes them powerful.
Thus, no powerful outlet has any interest in sortition. Sortition would threaten their power. It would be a great unknown, who knows what the political system would look like under such a dramatic change? Thus nobody really talks about it, and if someone does talk about it, nobody retweets them, or cites them, or gives grants to study it, or otherwise gets excited about the idea.
But at any rate, even if you could convince the powers-that-be to implement sortition, I think the idea is fatally flawed. There is a difference between power and authority. A lottery could give people authority - but exercising actual power requires much, much more. It requires real talent at dealing with people, real influence, real knowledge of how things get done.
Democracy, as in real rule by the people, does not exist, cannot exist, should not exist. The Iron Law of oligarchy always wins, and attempts to ignore the Iron Law of Oligarchy and implement "true" democracy simply result in corrupt and degenerate subversion of the on-paper electoral system.