Money Flooding Out of Canada at Fastest Pace in Developed World
bloomberg.com
bloomberg.com
As the Tunisian economy reels from the crash of the tourism industry due to terrorism, all of the new startups are starting to cater to entrenched upper middle class Tunisians who's family money is stuck here. The policy kind of enforces saving money, and buys a bit of time for the economy if things go awry. It also creates a lot of animosity for the Tunisians who'd much rather have Euros to invest properly.
Economic policy is fascinating stuff. Any other fun stories out there?
I'm coming round to the belief that the big downside of free movement of goods/people/capital is the possibility of "sloshing": rapid change that capsizes the economy. Entire areas can dry up or become booms overnight. And because there isn't and can't be free movement of real estate to compensate, we get craziness in the property market.
An aside UK property at the low end: the move from HA/Council rents to private rents (i.e. from around 350 to 750 per month outside the Great Wen) is going to make the current debate about livable wage interesting. Some Tories already coming round to rent cap/build for controlled rent.
Obviously no protectionist scheme is going to tax goods that it's market cannot produce, but there is always a tendency to put industry above consumer, and assymetric/mercantile style protections in place.
People often have intellectual debates about ideology/philosophy here, but nationalism is the real political force. If a government can be seen to steer its economy in the right direction, and its people feel well off compared to their neighbours, it will be popular, regardless of ideology, and regardless of how fairly it has treated other nations in trade negotiations.
Likewise, a state will inevitably favor free trade when it will profit over other states, and protectionism when it won't.
In the rare case when both states will benefit from an arrangement, there's usually some third party getting screwed, i.e.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/OPEC
I'm conflating capital controls with trade, but my point is more that they are often negotiated at the same time, and in the with the same ultimately selfish and unideological outlook.
High capital flows do correlate with frequency and severity of financial crises:
http://www.voxeu.org/article/ez-crisis-and-historical-trilem...
This is why poorer countries tend to enact capital controls. Foreign capital has a tendency to flee all at the same time (for a safe haven like America), which is ruinous for the economy. There's something of a feedback loop there.
This is why some investors describe emerging markets as markets from which it is difficult to emerge in an emergency.
0 - http://business.financialpost.com/investing/global-investor/...
1 - http://www.huffingtonpost.ca/2015/11/02/canada-economy-manuf...
That would make quite a nice animated visualisation.
Do you see any radical changes in the behaviour? ( i wondered about this when i realized the attacks would hurt Tunisia a lot)
The real reasons is just because it's not healthy for a developed economy who can't compete with the world to not monitor the ins and outs... Also we don't have a real currency but our is called Dirham and it's basically 40% USD and 60% EURO, They adjust it by time to time and change those values depends on how EU or US doing so if one of those currency crushed hard ours don't (It was 20% USD, and 80% EURO so relax my US fellas you're doing fine :P). And if you got caught trying to speak even like DH10 ($1) out of Morocco it's a serious crime (while you can take it in another currency, that's why you find Dirham only on Morocco).
Years ago I got my first credit card that world internationally (I tried 4 banks, it was just released, and they had too much technical issue AKA it's not working at all only one of them worked for me...) and it's capped at $1000 a year... you my think is nothing but it's like a dream for me... being able to get a couple of domains and servers is the dream.
If you're a politician or with a bit of power you can get money out of Morocco easily. Even when politicians caught doing that (no foreign nationality but owning stuff outside of Morocco) newspaper write about them and they respond with stuff like I really needed that since I have to send my son to study there... TL;DR: law don't apply on them...
If someone who is very affluent wishes to visit Paris or New York for two weeks, how would he or she go about taking enough money to rent a room in a luxury hotel?
One of the ways that there's also is money exchange, like someone who want to send money to Morocco and he is outside of Morocco.
Or you can just walk into a Spanish/Moroccan city (there's 2 on, on Africa... governed by Spain but both countries claim its their own) and deposit the money to a bank or something.
It's not like they are making it impossible for you, it's just impossible to do with on the way you are comfort with...
The idea is to try to keep some money in our economy but at the end of the day:
- the process gets rigged anyway - it's costly to enforce - most of the cost of compliance is passed to us citizen
Seriously though, this is what happens when you base your economy on primary industries (aka. resource extraction) and commodities take a huge hit.
Canada has a major infrastructure deficit, no competitive industries, major brain drain (and why not, you can go to the US or Europe and get paid way more, and pay less in cost of living), and absurdly expensive real estate. Even the cost of meat has gone up to the point where it'll make an Albertan think about going vegetarian (then again, a cabbage costs like 3$).
Not sure I'd even want to start a tech company here - people are too cheap to pay for services, and good luck ever getting any funding - maybe a small government grant or something...
The Canadian environment is extremely fertile for exploitation by US companies though, and we're having some success working with them already. It helps that the exchange rate is favourable. I would like to see much more competition and American money around here if only to teach the crusty old guard what it means to be innovative.
I'd love to see services overtake natural resources as a main export because it would be more sustainable and it would improve the lives of regular people a lot more than, say, unrefined oil or softwood lumber do.
I really feel like funding/moving startups that don't require a specific geography could gain in Canada. Maybe the currency needs to stabilize first.
"American money around here if only to teach the crusty old guard what it means to be innovative"...I totally agree, I deal with big vendors, and smaller alternatives would be great.
The US is a very large place with a lot of cities, it has 30 cities the size of (or larger than) Vancouver. You can find good software engineers across the entire nation, including in lower cost locations. From Portland, to Las Vegas, to Kansas City, to Raleigh, to Atlanta, to Detroit, to Pittsburgh, to Tulsa etc. You have dozens of cities to choose from that will have good engineers.
There's no reason you'd need to pay bay area salaries or locate in Silicon Valley (or NY). Unless you're trying to build the next juggernaut tech-startup and are going to take on the VC to match (in which case that pays for the high salaries).
The only part that sucks is when I have to order parts or equipment from down south.
And that doesn't even account for take-home pay after taxes and the large Canadian urban markets' cost of living, since the tax brackets top out quite a bit lower in Canada (not that I think the higher taxes are a bad thing; I don't feel my taxes in the US are high enough).
- Cost of most goods is still more than the US since we import them
- House prices are higher
- Quality of developers isn't necessarily as high (less universities and less students choose CPSC)
For most Canadian software engineers it's more worthwhile to work remotely or to relocate.
This is the mindset that got Canada into this situation in the first place.
As a recent Waterloo grad, I've witnessed first-hand how the tech industry in Canada has been bleeding talent to the US, even from our own top schools. Just about everyone I know who's good enough to have offers from US companies have taken the offers and left.
And it's not hard to imagine why: the average "highly competitive" salary in Canada is pathetic compared to what you could be making in the US for a similar position.
I think Blackberry has been a prime example of a company hit by this. Even with the advantage of being literally next door to the Waterloo campus, most students I know treated it as nothing more than a "safety" in their co-op and grad job search. So in the end, the only students Blackberry ever had access to were the ones who weren't good enough for the US companies, and the few good ones who couldn't to go to the US for what ever reason.
I can't see this trend slowing any time soon, unless Canadian companies start offering salaries competitive with companies across the border, rather than just with their other Canadian neighbors.
The housing market seems to be weathering the storm.
It wasn't like Canada was living in a golden age during this 'boom', in fact housing prices across most of Canada and costs in general have skyrocketed. If there was a 'boom', it wasn't being felt in most of the country.
With globalization I just fail to see how it helps the average person, it just seems to mainly help the extremely wealthy. The rest of us are just left in a race to the bottom.
This is a bit simplistic. Some of the savings do and some go to the consumer by way of competition among firms.
Inflation has been pretty flat in recent years and that's not because governments stopped printing money. It's because prices on goods and services have been under a lot of pressure due to globalization. That means consumers are paying less than they would be if that weren't the case.
Granted, those at the top are raking in the cash. But money is worthless unless you spend it and when they spend it, somebody has to do the work that the money is being spent on. That creates jobs.
Certainly everybody wishes they were making more money and in some cases, the grievance is legitimate.
The issue is that the rich spend a smaller proportion of their money than the middle class.
So while globalisation does increase the prospects for some poor people, it definitely does take wealth out of the global economy and into the hands of the '1 percent'.
that trite line is great for politics but not for anyone who thinks for themselves
My sister was complaining about it when I saw her. Wasn't getting much work.
Canada was absolutely enjoying an oil boom. It can be hard to see the connection between a new highway or hospital and oil prices at 100, but rest assured they are intertwined. Yes people who owned oil production facilities benefit most as they took on the most risk, but all of Canada benefits when they do well. It is sort of like being a cafe owner in Silicon Valley saying, "I'm not sure how I, as a normal hard working person, benefits from all these rich programmers around."
Further, oil revenues are a major component of the tax base to Federal and Provincial governments. With those revenues drying out, transfer payments to non oil provinces, and social programs across Canada are threatened. Oil is absolutely fundamental to the Canadian economy at this point.
My retirement funds have, as some of their holdings, a comparatively small handful of shares in companies, as part of a fund managed by an institutional investor, whose goal is to deliver shareholder value to people who hold shares of the managing organization, which may be completely separate.
Saying "Your interests should be aligned with exceedingly wealthy individuals because you hold shares in some companies which they control." is wrong at best, and disingenuous at worst.
That's not true. The Alberta gov't (where most of the oil is) has a royalty system. One of the reasons why the Alberta gov't ran a surplus most years was because of all the oil royalties. That money was spread around a lot in Alberta and it had one of the lowest tax burdens and generous welfare benefits.
Long story short ... it's about really, really poor prospects for the oilsands going forward, added to a very uncertain fiscal situation:
http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/calgary/alberta-budget-debt-wi...
For what it's worth, yes, this is what we get for being hewers of wood, drawers of water, etc. Traders don't call CAD a commodity currency for nothing.
Edit: wrong link!
Isolationism is generally a path to irrelevance. The most powerful countries are porous and actively engaged with the world, allowing capital and people to flow in and out. Isolated countries wither.