There’s No Escaping Competition: People Need a Way to Decide Who Gets What
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OK, there is always competition, no problem here. But there are nonetheless many other systems than market decision-making, and there is no clear winner from the moral point of view. Just one example can be democratic voting about economic allocation. I would love to see him show that this is not socially optimal, without showing the same about the market system. (To simplify things, we can consider market system to be one where you can accumulate votes.)
In fact, we don't even know if "socially optimal" solution exists or is unique!
Also, a minor point. It's been shown that price signals work only in the environment with perfect information and rational actors, but then the price is superfluous! This well-known counterargument is not addressed at all.
Someone put it nicely here on HN, once economics stopped calling itself political economics, it became much more ideological.
P.S. Downvoters, please, leave a comment. I will happily have a discussion with you.
A key notion of economics is that if two people voluntarily agree to something, it must be of some benefit of them at that moment compared to alternatives else they wouldn't have agreed. A market can consist solely of such interaction. A democracy on the other hand involves people via votes controlling what other people can and can't do (in a market context, reducing their control over what, how and to whom they can exchange their labour and products thereof), which necessarily entails some kind of loss (in terms of otherwise-realised unrealised preference) from the people who are not able to do what they'd be doing absent coercion by the democracy's enforcers.
Pure free-market economics adopts the epistemological stance that utility (the economic proxy for value, based roughly on the notion of value being defined as the sum of people's realised preferences) isn't quantifiable, so no potential utility gained from the results of the democratic thwarting of some people's preferences can outweigh the definite loss from those people not realising their preferences.
Other schools of economics do view utility as quantifiable, so it's possible to say that there can be a net benefit from interfering with someone's preferences based on the result of democratic process. They disagree however in how utility is best quantified.
Schools of thought external to economics often have measures of value that differ substantially from the economic notion of utility. In particular, any scheme that assumes the existence of moral absolutes is fundamentally incompatible with the notion of utility.
It's hence important to consider that any economics that makes recommendations (that isn't just econometrics/prediction) is necessarily based on some particular philosophical propositions regarding what's valuable. Without this, economic discussion tends to degrade to people talking past each other because they have fundamentally different theories of value, fundamentally different metrics for the "optimal" in social optimality.
To put it another way, whether or not there is an optimal solution depends on how optimality is defined, so discussing solutions without defining optimality is pointless.
This is, of course, completely unrealistic, but in some contexts it happens to help the modeling involved in academic economics.
In fact, this whole article makes a ridiculous mistake. Nobody is arguing for a command economy. Democratic socialists just want regulations that fix market failures.
The problem is that interactions of two other people can also impose cost on me. Then if this is worse than some opportunity lost is not clear cut.
> Pure free-market economics adopts the epistemological stance that utility isn't quantifiable
I know, but it's an absurd stance, isn't it? It let's you do things like seeing a person that has a heart attack and thinking "I see you have a heart attack, but why should I help you, maybe it's your preference!"
I think any actor has to assume certain, at least very fuzzy, preferences of other actors to be able to operate in the world.
I suspect there are actual rational reasons why people don't want to have their preferences revealed, and this economic school of thought's usage of the "non-quantifiable argument" is just a one of the possible rationalizations.
> so discussing solutions without defining optimality is pointless
I actually feel the same way reading the article.
The economic answer would be that the possible costs it could impose on you can be expressed as violations of your property rights, and if they wished to do this then they'd need to compensate you, or else you could sue them for redress.
>I know, but it's an absurd stance, isn't it? It let's you do things like seeing a person that has a heart attack and thinking "I see you have a heart attack, but why should I help you, maybe it's your preference!"
Being absurd doesn't necessarily make it less philosophically valid. In one sense the whole concept of morality is absurd, via https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Regress_argument. There's even a school of philosophy called Absurdism that based around recognition of the absurdity of seeking absolute values that inherently cannot be found: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Absurdism.
On a more concrete level, the rejection of quantifiable utility is based on rejection of the extra assumptions it requires. Two in particular: firstly, it assumes some kind of simple relationship, so that if person X buys 10 apples for $100, then they valued each apple at $10 (linear), or maybe the first at $50, the second at 25$, etc. (polynomial). There is however no irrefutable logical justification for the assumption, e.g. perhaps they valued the first at $30, the second at $1, the third at $4, the fourth at $5. Secondly, it assumes that a person's preferences at time t have any relation to their preferences at time t+1.
Let me explain a specific example: If a person A cheats person B out of his money, it affects me negatively. It poses a risk in the future that person A, being a cheater, will repeat this many times and eventually will have enough money to cheat me. (Both B and me will agree to be cheated by A at the time when we will be cheated, yet it won't be our preference. Kind of like getting a forced move by check in chess.)
Now I am not sure your claim, that this problem can be expressed as property rights, is correct. At very least, these would have to be collective property rights. In fact, I think what we are getting here, if we are to express this correctly as property rights, to is state control over transactions, in one way or another.
> Being absurd doesn't necessarily make it less philosophically valid.
I would say it's a good way not to be taken seriously, but YMMV.
> On a more concrete level, the rejection of quantifiable utility is based on rejection of the extra assumptions it requires.
Which is a bullshit excuse. We have mathematical capabilities to deal with these kinds of problems - probability, fuzzy logic, whatever. It's just laziness of economists to show that the free market assumptions hold under these new assumptions. (To be fair, it's probably not laziness, I doubt they would hold.)
In particular, we can model things like this in computers. I don't know of much cases where this was actually done, but I heard that free market in silico very quickly collapsed into an oligopolic mess.
Anyway, your assumptions should be close to the real world as much as possible. That should be the criteria for choosing them. It's a nice curiosity to have free markets work under some weird, unrealistic assumptions, but it's rather useless in the real world.
It depends what you mean by "cheat". If A lies, then A potentially committed fraud or the like, and can be persecuted. If A just took advantage of B's gullibility (sold him some great swampland or the like), this wouldn't pose any risk to you unless you were gullible too.
>Which is a bullshit excuse. We have mathematical capabilities to deal with these kinds of problems - probability, fuzzy logic, whatever. It's just laziness of economists to show that the free market assumptions hold under these new assumptions.
It's a not about a lack of mathematics, it's an empistemological issue: how can these assumptions be justified? Any qualitative model necessarily requires more assumptions. As all moral assumptions/statements are ultimately arbitrary due to the regress problem I mentioned previously, fewer assumptions means less arbitrarity.
>In particular, we can model things like this in computers.
You can't model things like this in computers until you can model human brains in computers. Until then, you have to make arbitrary assumptions that some kind of agent in particular model morally approximates an actual human, which is yet another assumption that must be justified.
>It's a nice curiosity to have free markets work under some weird, unrealistic assumptions, but it's rather useless in the real world.
You're missing the point that it's about how "work" is defined. If you define it by allowing people to maximise their ordinal utility at each given moment in time, then they "work" by default. If you define it by some other criteria, then how much they work depends on how similar those criteria are to maximising momentary ordinal utility.
How could you ever faithfully reconcile all those decisions into a manageable number of votes? If you stranded with five people on a remote island you could probably pull this off, but in any realistic setting this seems totally out of reach to me.
I am totally not happy with capitalism as we have it, but the thing that actually works really well are markets. Surely markets can fail if there are monopolies, if actors collude, if there are externalities not reflected by the price and so on and this can lead to socially suboptimal or plain bad outcomes but often they work really well. That is why I am against laissez-faire economics because well working markets are not something that necessarily arises out of the blue, sometimes it requires intervention.
1) 100% impervious to corruption 2) Able to predict the weather or any other complex chaotic system with 100% accuracy. 3) Never sleep or take vacations. 4) Completely concerned with the needs of others and completely uninterested in their own needs (no family or friends)
Once we can get 10 or 15 of those people, central planning would finally work better than imperfect markets.
Not necessary, since markets have been proved to be quite prone to corruption themselves.
>2) Able to predict the weather or any other complex chaotic system with 100% accuracy.
Not necessary, they can just take quick actions. Markets can't predict the weather either.
>3) Never sleep or take vacations.
Markets actually sleep too -- e.g. stock exchanges close. And shops, especially pre-internet, close, all at the same time, around 8-9pm (with small exceptions like your local diner).
And who said 24/7 planning is required in the first place? The whole idea about planning is that you do it in advance of some bigger or smaller period of time. Again, this "requirement" presupposes what it has to prove is needed.
>4) Completely concerned with the needs of others and completely uninterested in their own needs (no family or friends)
Not necessary, since the market has proven that it's doesn't result in any 100% perfect arrangement regarding needs either.
The needs of a huge percentage are ignored (to the point that they can even die homeless and sick), 0.1% controls 80% of the wealth, and even individuals are taught and conditioned to make bad decisions all the time for their own needs, destroying themselves in the process (e.g. having easy credit pushed upon them, etc).
All those arguments presume the market is 100% perfect, or even if they don't presume that, they still ask that the "planning system" should be 100% perfect (instead of just better than the market which would be a more logical demand).
But could you really isolate those? Wouldn't quick interventions in one area not likely also have indirect effects on other areas making at least some smaller adjustments necessary? This looks to me like you would become pretty busy doing quick interventions and propagating the ripples through the rest of the plan at which point you are back where you started without any longer term planing.
It seems to me that any form of longer term planning incurs a cost by not being able to react in a timely manner, effects propagating asynchronously and as fast as possible in markets would propagate way slower over a couple of planning iterations because they are unnecessarily forced into lockstep.
Markets actors can be corrupt, but the market itself is supply/demand driven. Corruption in central planners however is catastrophic.
>Not necessary, they can just take quick actions. Markets can't predict the weather either.
Markets don't predict complex systems, they are the complex system. They trend towards equilibrium when possible. Guessing where that equilibrium lies is nearly impossible for humans, but they try everyday.
>3) Never sleep or take vacations.
Never bought anything after 9pm? Amazon isn't a bad place to go for that, or Walmart, 7-11, nightclubs, bars, restaurants. Also while exchanges close there is after hours trading, orders being placed etc. The second the opening bell rings on the exchange there is an implied opening price that is different from yesterdays close due to 24/7 activity.
>Not necessary, since the market has proven that it's doesn't result in any 100% perfect arrangement regarding needs either.
Read about Boris Yeltsin's trip to the Clear Lake grocery store in the US in 1989. The US Market had better performance than Soviet central planners at stocking a grocery store according to demand.
>The needs of a huge percentage are ignored (to the point that they can even die homeless and sick), 0.1% controls 80% of the wealth, and even individuals are taught and conditioned to make bad decisions all the time for their own needs, destroying themselves in the process (e.g. having easy credit pushed upon them, etc).
Payday loans are an interesting phenomenon. Maybe they should be illegal, but no one in there right mind would charge anything short of usury rates with default levels as high as a payday loan operation. You are free to go head to the bad part of town and start lending at prime rate, but you will be destitute in one week. The alternative is no loans which may be better. Also in the US homelessness seems to be driven not from economic problems but from mental health issues and addiction. You may get hit with a massive medical bill, but without making a lot of mistakes along the way you will have a roof over your head.
>All those arguments presume the market is 100% perfect, or even if they don't presume that, they still ask that the "planning system" should be 100% perfect (instead of just better than the market which would be a more logical demand).
Those arguments say that to be better than an imperfect chaotic system, you have to be able to perfectly model that system then make decisions about it.
Free markets are chaotic and thus people especially non-producers are scared form it. However, history showed us clearly central planners (especially Russian style) no matter what they tried it failed miserably and unlike free markets results were often measured by death toll. Markets are much more local and distributed. It has a huge advantage over central systems. Big Corporations with political ties harm free markets a great deal, but even than I say it fares better.
Many suggested with better technology central planning would have an edge, my counter claim is that with better technology free markets will have a further advantage.
There are many more versions of central planning, including in the US in various segments, western Europe etc, that have done quite well for themselves.
Besides, the market has also been tested, many more times, and I wouldn't call it any great success either.
Markets are fine. The things they do just become furniture we don't notice any more. Most of the "evil" things capitalists get accused of are actually just not very capitalist. There are handful of Rand-influenced firms out there ( Cypress Semi comes to mind ) and they generally just aren't noteworthy.
I would not defend Rand on her best day, but she at least had a mechanism that can be used - with modification - as an operating principle - don't trade greater value for lesser. Don't sell your soul.
I kind of think that if we could vote our way to nirvana we'd have done it by now.
I don't think ISIS has anything to do with that -- and they don't particularly thrive on modern networking either, they're just a crude group who seized power in a power vacuum in an isolated area. They could have happened 30 or 100 years ago. Of course they use some modern means, but that's not what defines them.
Besides, the ISIS guys are mostly savages in sophistication (maybe not some heads, but the ground people sure).
But to put their actions in contrast there had been tons of beheadings, torture and mass murder from colonial powers from UK to France up to the late 1950s -- and those countries were supposedly the pinnacle of civilization. And not some isolated incidents either: widespread, matter of policy, and official arranged and covered up when needed.
This is not to defend the former -- just to disgrace the latter the same.
>Markets are fine. The things they do just become furniture we don't notice any more. Most of the "evil" things capitalists get accused of are actually just not very capitalist.
The same can be said (and has been said) for "really existing socialism" like central planning -- that most of the "evil" things communists get accused of are actually just not very communist.
The thing is, what's really "capitalist" is better determined by widespread actual observation on how "really existing" capitalist societies behave -- including the horrors of slavery, colonialism, segregation, military-industrial complex, wars and such -- and not by some idealistic pure "capitalism".
Likewise for the communist version -- though, as I said for that we have far fewer samples, and from worse starting conditions.
Even so, compared to where countries like "capitalist" Nigeria is now for example, "socialist" Czechoslovakia was paradise. And then there's the various degrees of socialism that done very well in both Western Europe and the nordic countries and the US itself (New Deal).
Slavery, colonialism and to an extent militarism are hallmarks of mercantilism. And the Military Industrial Complex in the US was because people like Eisenhower saw the huge drawdowns after WWI and because now the US was left as some sort of world leader. I don't think this was mostly sought - it happened to us more than it was consciously chosen. And we were terrible at it, and some say we still are. But we had our moments.
I won't pooh-pooh Nordic "socialism". It works for them. The version Canada has seems reasonable as well.These places are poorer than the US as things are measured, but it's not like they're awful places to live.
What I'm doing is to an extent a "no true Scotsman" mess, but if you read Adam Smith, that's what you're left with. It's just that the ethical challenges of being transparent are difficult. People regress to wanting something more akin to Mercantilism, power by fiat.
You don't vote at that level -- and it doesn't even make sense. You vote at a higher level.
It's not too much of a stretch to see spending money as voting for economic activity.
Now we just need to find an expert in information economics and start asking them good questions!
Also, I'm not exactly a supporter of central planning, but it is worth noting, against conventional "market fundamentalism", that firms make fairly centralized and definite plans internally. So it seems that where information is scarce and radically incomplete, the stochasticity of markets helps achieve good outcomes in the same way that we might do empirical experiments in science rather than prove theorems. Likewise, where information is abundant, well-understood, and fairly complete (and where goals can be specified clearly -- extremely important!) - and where only success will be rewarded rather than failure! - the kind of planning done by firms and governments works well.
And that becomes increasingly inefficient as firms get larger, which is one reason why you generally don't end up with one company running everything.
That's not quite true. While internal firm planning does seem to get less efficient as firms get larger, that inefficiency doesn't seem to stop firms from actually getting larger, or gobbling each-other up to form monopolies and oligopolies. The real-world upshot seems to be that as long as firms are allowed to grow past the point of efficient planning and efficient competition, they will actually harm the larger economy by attempting to grow and consume market share even when doing so makes them less economically efficient.
Businesses have a single, all important goal, to generate a profit so a top down plan can and does work.
People on the other hand have different and changing values. Money is a distributed consensus system to figure out how to satisfy them. Markets help to do this more efficiently.
How is this substantively different from just calling human beings (or perhaps "rational" human beings?) money-maximizers and pretending we don't even need particular items to be bought and sold as long as economic transactions take place?
What you're proposing sounds far too vulnerable to the "Disneyland with no children" scenario.
I do think that people are "value-maximisers", short or long term is irrelevant. Being rational isn't really important either, people do what they believe will satisfy their values, even if it doesn't end up helping.
Basically, you cannot model society as two-person interactions. That doesn't capture the power dynamic.
The stories about monopolies of market power from the morgue of the Hearst newspapers ( and at varying times, all newspapers emulated the Hearst newspapers ) are mostly just-so stories. And then there are true stories, like Edison using patent law and legbreakers to dominate the film industry.
Just consider the simplest case of how it can happen that someone has power over someone else despite having same real strength. Person A comes to person B and says: "If you don't do what I say, I will have me and person C to beat you up." Since B doesn't know C, he would better comply. Then person A comes to person C and says: "If you don't do what I say, I will have me and person B to beat you up." C doesn't know B either, so he has to comply. Now A has (some small amount of) power over B and C. This power could be easily broken if B and C would meet and talked about A's bluff (this is actually the price A pays in higher risk of B and C finding out).
Now you may observe in the example that neither interaction was about just two parties; every interaction was about all three parties. So to be able to discuss power, you need to have interactions that involve at least three parties, and also some information hiding.
(In fact, as an aside, I believe that for any n there exist n-person games that cannot be accurately modeled via any series of (n-1)-person games, and the above is just example for n=3.)
> The stories about monopolies of market power from the morgue of the Hearst newspapers
Not sure what you refer to here, but I will say this:
I consider the idea of free market to be some set of rules of how people conduct business. These rules then can lead to (moral) failures, such as accumulation of wealth and power. This can be seen not only in the real world, but also by putting those rules into a computer and running a simulation.
Many people apparently don't agree with this approach. If I point to a market failure, such as monopoly, they will say "but this is not really a free market". Well, with such a definition of free market, you deliberately didn't allow for failure. But unfortunately, this approach doesn't give you rules that you can just apply and get whatever you call the free market.
I agree wholeheartedly - you can't get two, much less three people to agree on market failures. My bias is that they simply don't happen or only happen very rarely , that wealth and power are almost completely illusory and conflate status and money to an embarrassing degree.
I think that some people like stories about oppression ( I used to be one of those people ) and that this explains much of how it is that people disagree about this. A good way to challenge this belief is to read "Chief", a bio of Hearst by David Nasaw. This is why I refer to the Hearst morgue as feedstock for history - it's a lot bunk in that role, but every single person who reads history in what americans call high school gets it full in the face, and it takes some doing to get past it.
The beauty of the example is that you don't have to beat people up. What is only needed is A to risk more than B and C.
The point was though you cannot prevent this kind of activity taking place on the market (it can actually be reformulated through money and investment, existence of which also requires 3 parties). So by using 2-party model only, you are missing a good chunk of reality here.
> My bias is that they simply don't happen or only happen very rarely , that wealth and power are almost completely illusory
I guess we can agree we live in a different reality, then :-)
A market monopoly is when, absent any government intrusion, one producer manages to do a job so efficiently that it doesn't pay anyone else to compete. That's not a market failure either. Competition still exists even without actual competitors, since the potential for competitors to enter the market is ever present, should the monopolist abuse the consumer.
Just one example out of many. Microsoft preinstalls Windows on PCs. I can't get e.g. a Linux one because every time someone tries to sell them, Microsoft will signal to the seller that they will have to change the terms of contract with them. Since no seller can really afford to lose MS, they will always cave in and forget about the Linux deal. This is how "the market" actually works in the real world.
> Competition still exists even without actual competitors, since the potential for competitors to enter the market is ever present, should the monopolist abuse the consumer.
I am sorry, I don't buy this, this is wishful thinking. You're basically telling me that someone abusive will not abuse even if he knows there is nothing to stop them, just because there is always a possibility that something to stop them will suddenly appear out of thin air?
First, there is no appreciable demand in the consumer market for Linux, and there very likely will never be. I don't mean to antagonize Linux aficionados, but that's not the fault of the Evil Empire of Redmond. So, it's simply not worth it for these companies to bother. It's not a "market failure" because a fringe group of consumers are inconvenienced. You make this sound like an orphan drug.
Second, and more importantly, Dell, HP, and Lenovo are not free to combine and stand up to Microsoft. U.S. antitrust laws would shut that down immediately. In other words, government interference is contributing to this problem you're lamenting. That's not a "market failure" either -- it's a political failure.
As to established, profitable companies "having more options," as you say; it's just as easily said that smaller, newer companies are more nimble and able to spot undeveloped, unsatisfied niches in consumer demand. That's called competition -- sometimes the puncher wins, and sometimes the boxer wins.
And, finally, I never said that no one would ever try to "abuse" the consumer. What I'm saying is that there is always the threat of competition acting as a corrective.
You simply don't want to believe these things happen. But if you pay attention, you can see lot of incidental evidence that it happens. But there is always plausible deniability, it's never done too overtly.
> I never said that no one would ever try to "abuse" the consumer
Companies are selected for abusive behavior by evolutionary pressure. No person or company is really interested in being in competition (if survival really depends on it); everybody runs as fast (and as creatively) as they can to avoid it and reap maximal profits. It can be shown on rather simple multi-agent simulations.
I am not sure what leads so many people to conclusion that companies like MS or HP - which can build freaking computers and operating systems - cannot figure out a simple fact that in some cases acting together against consumer interests will in fact increase their profits.
You're not the person who replied to me about "health" and "happiness," but I'm guessing that even though you'll cry "Who then defines what is fraud?" you have no trouble deciding that "Society" should define health and happiness—yes?
Better that we stick to more concrete and prosaic ideas like contract.
1. https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=9335125
2. https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=9510919
TLDR, If you believe values (desires) are subjective then any centrally planned system will be inefficient.
[edit: formatting]
People can "cheat" (for example give incomplete information, or mislead about how much stuff they have really done, etc.) and then for that, they get more votes about what is socially useful activity? Of course they will reinvest those points into more what they are doing, and at the end of the day, you will end up with people like that controlling the economy.
And that's what actually happens - owners of capital decide by huge margin where to invest, because accumulation of capital gives you a leverage which just doing normal work doesn't. It also happens to a lesser extent between other social groups.
Now, I see two realistic solutions to this loophole:
- Limit personal wealth to some amount (say 100x average) and redistribute the rest.
- Limit amount of overall wealth (let's say GDP) than can be subject of competition to a certain percentage (say 50%) and redistribute the rest.
These are essentially proposals for having a mixed economy.
> any centrally planned system will be inefficient
Is democracy central planning or not? I don't think "central planning" is particularly useful category, to be honest. All larger-scale human activities have to be done by cooperation of many people, and this cooperation can be always viewed as central planning, or at least as place where individual values are suppressed.
Democracy isn't central planning. It has a similar basis to capitalism actually.
If you believe that morals are subjective then it makes sense to give everyone a say in what morals are codified as law. If on the other hand you believe in a single objective moral code, a dictator's for example' then you don't need to make any decisions.
Capitalism is the same but with morals switched with values/desires. It may not be the best "type 2" system, but in a subjective values universe any system that replaces it would need to be "type 2" as well.
I absolutely disagree with this statement. In democracy, you cannot trade or accumulate votes, and it is one of its tenets. In capitalism, you can trade and accumulate "votes".
This means, at the very least, what family you were born into influences your life. It's better than feudalism, for sure, but it's still far from the ideal of equal opportunities.
Its an interesting thought experiment to switch the mechanisms and predict the effects.
* Markets cannot be claimed to "beat" Arrow's Impossibility Theorem any better than any other method of preference aggregation.
* Economics does not derive from foundations for ethics, nor form a foundation for ethics, nor say anything about ethics or meta-ethics. Value-neutrality is basically the whole point of economics, ever since Adam Smith codified the subject.
* In fact, to drive home that second point there, if two people agree on a preference ordering, it doesn't matter whether that ordering has any metaphysical or "foundational" significance whatsoever. Economics is making a weird assumption, from the anthropological point of view, that people won't agree on preference orderings -- what with all being humans and thus having very similar material needs.
* In further fact, "free market" systems, taken as foundations for morality and society, give rise to their own "paradoxes" (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Liberal_paradox).
To unpack the first point, which is most likely the important one... The Impossibility Theorem says that no system of ordinally-ranked voting (in which candidates are listed in order of preference) can satisfy the following three criteria, and also something called Pareto efficiency we'll get back to later.
The three criteria:
* If every voter prefers alternative X over alternative Y, then the group prefers X over Y.
* If every voter's preference between X and Y remains unchanged, then the group's preference between X and Y will also remain unchanged (even if voters' preferences between other pairs like X and Z, Y and Z, or Z and W change).
* There is no "dictator": no single voter possesses the power to always determine the group's preference. Note that "dictator" here is a technical term: the hypothetical "dictator" would probably not know who he or she is. An informal term that captures the correct meaning in today's term would be closer to "swing voter" -- Asimov wrote a short story about the phenomenon (http://www.5novels.net/ScienceFiction/Asimov41/27325.html).
So, how does a "market system" do "better" than a centrally-planned one? Well, firstly, it employs cardinal (real-number) preferences rather than orderings, and secondly, it allows for dictatorship (primarily of the wealthy, and in both the technical and informal senses). This of course means that any preference-aggregation system which is willing to bite these two bullets (preferences are numbers rather than orderings, and there may be one person in the population whose voice determines the outcome) faces no troubles from Arrow's Theorem. The Gibbard-Satterthwaite Theorem will still apply (any system must exclude some candidate, suffer from a potential (if unknown) dictator, or be vulnerable to tactical voting), but it of course applies to "market planning" just as much as to any other system (particularly since market planning bites the dictatorship bullet).
As to the question of efficiency, capitalism does not even claim to provide social efficiency in any sense, merely Pareto efficiency regarding things which can be owned as property. Pareto efficiency just means, "The best outcome that can be obtained without taking from the rich to give to the poor." Worse, markets are not known to converge to equilibria in real life -- they're far too stochastic for that.
And then of course we run into all the previously-mentioned issues of trying to combine freshman political science, wildly idealized economics, and right-wing ideology to claim to have formed a foundation for morality or to answer fundamentally moral questions.
I'm not taking free markets to be a foundation for morality, I'm saying that I believe morality and values to be subjective. Markets are just one way to achieve consensus in a distributed system.
You mentioned earlier that you believe in moral realism, a definite objective moral code which ALL humans should follow and humans who do not are wrong/bad/broken. Do you believe the same about values? That there is an objective preference ordering all humans should have and those that do not are wrong/bad/broken?
I don't particularly favour capitalism or democracy as systems, but I do prefer them over central planning or dictatorship BECAUSE I believe values and morality to be subjective. Any alternate system should take that into account.
Is this where we disagree?
That's a misconceived question in the first place. There are only actual feelings, preferences, etc. that actually-existing human individuals really have. To talk about "more objective" versus "more subjective", you have to talk about how well-informed those feelings and preferences are by someone's experience of the world: the objective, normative preference is the one you would form if you had all relevant experience of the world.
What values are not is subjective in the economic sense, of being both completely particular to each given agent and also arbitrary, unlinked to what sort of person you are or your circumstances. This is why it's often a better idea to inform and educate someone than to merely give them what their misconceived desires currently point towards -- for instance, to hospitalize suicidal people.
>I don't particularly favour capitalism or democracy as systems, but I do prefer them over central planning or dictatorship BECAUSE I believe values and morality to be subjective. Any alternate system should take that into account.
But again, you are completely ignoring both the definitions of the systems you're talking about, and how they actually operate. The questions you're trying to argue about are not fundamentally about "objective values" (a less misconceived idea) versus "subjective values" (a very extremely misconceived idea). They are about how you transmit information about what actually-existing people want or would want, and combine material inputs to give people what they want or would want.
Capitalism, especially of our current kind, is quite bad at giving people what they want, whether it's objective or subjective or naturalistic! This is why you are sitting here resorting to bad meta-ethics and bad history: you cannot justify your system by reference to the broad masses being genuinely satisfied with their lives, so instead you say, "Values are subjective, so capitalism is the only alternative to dictatorship, because Arrow's Impossibility Theorem." Every part of this statement is fractally wrong: there are more political systems than just "democracy" and "dictatorship", there are more economic systems than just capitalism and "central planning"/command-economy, Arrow's Impossibility Theorem demonstrates certain limitations that markets have to follow just like everything else, values are naturalistic, and the masses are mostly quite unhappy with their lives.
Please, learn more history, learn more political science, learn more economics, and learn them honestly. Avoid ethics, actually: it's a crappy field because it's founded on the false assumption that there are actually things called "values", which are either dictated by God, spring fully-formed from the Platonic Form of Reason, or are "subjective" to the point of meaninglessness.
Actually we know it doesn't, by way of Arrow's impossibility theorem.
That's a nonsensical argument so I doubt it's been "shown" by anyone. Price signals work better as the rationality and level of informedness of participants goes up, this should be obvious. But it isn't true that you must have perfect information or else prices are entirely useless.
What's more, even if you do have ideal and perfectly informed actors, you still need prices. The perfect information is spread out amongst many peoples heads, thus requiring some sort of highly scalable gathering and spreading mechanism (like prices), and even perfectly informed people can still reach different judgements about the relative importance of things. The phenomenon of two people who are clearly experts in a subject vigorously disagreeing with each other is commonplace. So even if you could genetically engineer an economy of telepaths, you'd still need prices to resolve differences in personal perceptions of importance.
Ballot-box style voting is not a replacement for markets. You can't literally hold a nationwide vote every time someone wants to buy a loaf of bread, it's too inefficient and anyway, what would the vote say? A much more effective voting mechanism is that you get some "votes" and then can cast them in a kind of auction to get what you want ..... oh, seems we ended up back at prices. Which are in a sense highly democratic.
It actually isn't obvious. Optimal strategy is not a continuous function of game parameters (ultimatum game is a good example). You can find situations where prices are entirely useless no matter how close to rationality or well informed you happen to be.
> you still need prices
I agree you can use prices as a substitute for preferences, but I disagree that you can use them as a substitute for information about the product.
> Ballot-box style voting is not a replacement for markets.
I actually wasn't suggesting it as a practical alternative, I was only saying that the same moral arguments OP had for the free markets work in that case too.
> Which are in a sense highly democratic.
If we were all only consumers, it would be true. But market participants also invest or save, and that's a problem - these are ways to gain votes over other actors. That's the reason why I find democratic voting morally superior to free markets.
I am not sure what is your argument. Voting (if that's what you're alluding to) can have the same real consequences as spending money. Both are a limited resource.
Anyway, I wanted to remark something that perhaps wasn't obvious. When I say "distribute resources democratically", it doesn't necessarily mean to vote about every resource. It can also mean to democratically establish rules that go against the market in specific cases, or choose market in some other cases.
Pretty much what I am saying is that free markets can fail and it should be democratic decision on whether they failed in specific case and how to remedy it.
> but social interaction does not reward honesty
Interesting. Not sure what you mean by social interaction, but it seems that this contradicts the idea that free markets can work in human societies. In particular, it implies that people are rewarded for dishonesty, which breaks down the free flow of information assumption needed for proper market function.
So this is the substrate for "social interaction does not reward honesty" because social interaction is essentially adding other people to your set of narratives.
I think that economic behavior is more honest - a person who wears an expensive watch is saying something with it.
People who try to lie in markets don't do well. Markets punish the untruthful, generally - it's too much work to keep a lie going in that case. Of course some manage, but in general, no. How many Bernie Madoff stories are there? Not many.
OK. But I still don't understand the point you're trying to make.
But even if markets were more honest, it is still not good enough argument to have them. War may also make people more honest but it's not a reason to have it either.
> People who try to lie in markets don't do well.
I wish it would be true. You probably come from the U.S., which has an extremely strong culture of fairness (although it slowly weakens), expressed in its justice system. But in other nations, this culture is not strong. The problem is that markets cannot really punish anybody; once you successfully cheated, you get more money. If you have been found out, you at most lose a little bit of investment (and a mark, but those are dime a dozen). You can generally start another company with different name and continue with dishonesty. In other words, I don't consider losing a good job or opportunity to be a punishment; it's just a bad luck.
> How many Bernie Madoff stories are there? Not many.
In Czechoslovakia, shortly after the Velvet Revolution, there were many. The justice system didn't understand the new economic system and wasn't capable to deal with cheaters. Our prime minister, Vaclav Klaus, had the opinion - free markets are of primary importance and the justice system is secondary. What happened during the era (before we passed enough laws to be compatible with EU) was just huge "gold rush" of embezzlement.
Your last paragraph is interesting. But did that persist, or was it just "switching cost"? Yes, I am from the US and everybody wants to be like us don't they :) It may be that transparency and "fairness" are public goods with low costs of defecting in the prisoner's dilemma of them.
Opinion differs, but I think thanks to EU we were forced to accept a reasonable legal prevention to most egregious acts of economic crime. If that didn't happen, we would look.. probably kinda like Russia. In a sense it persisted because the people who got rich during the "gold rush" (usually through botched "privatization" of former state enterprises, but also through various scams) of course didn't lost their wealth.
Anyway, the point is, free market left to its own devices is not very pretty; I have seen that as a teenager. Arguably, Americans should remember that lesson from late 19th century.
That's quite interesting, considering the economics literature says that the strength and consistency of the law is a crucial component of making a market economy successful, often more so than the mere number of firms in the marketplace!
Unfortunately, in large parts of Eastern Europe, this advice was ignored. In reality, the main right wing (or pro-market) parties fought tooth and nail against any sort of regulation (to be fair there were couple individuals who were exceptions). And to this day, pro-market supporters vote for some of these, so it's not like they are too unhappy about it. It's much like the difference between communist rhetoric and practice.
And that is a fundamental problem with the economy: it is not about who offers the best products (and who has the best "genes" for doing so), but it is about who has the deepest pockets. The company with the most cash can buy the best advertisements. And that company can afford even to buy marketshare in a market in which it is not even active (and crush the competition there).
We can definitely have capitalism to decide who gets what many washing machines, or laptops and so on. We do not need capitalism to decide that everyone gets enough food, shelter, healthcare, education etc.
Have socialism for the basics, and have capitalism for affluence. That way you keep efficiency without being inhumane.
Basic income is a zero sum game, it redistributes without creating productivity. Now if you gave everyone that wants to attempt to start a small business 30k to survive the first 3-5 years now your talking about something that could drive GDP.
You are absolutely wrong in that it does not create productivity. When the underclass has the ability to take risk, it enables them to take part in all that which makes capitalism great. The loss in innovation at the top is more than made up for an increase in innovation at the bottom.
I don't doubt that some people in the underclass would have an opportunity to take some risks that they wouldn't have otherwise, but many may also drop out of the workforce happy with 30k per year. My opinion is that there would be runaway inflation if you ended up with a situation where people had the option to drop out of the workforce funded by printed paper money.
The fact of the matter is that (1) the inflation fears are far overstated. We are already injecting money into the economy, but we haven't seen inflation. All overt money financing would do is inject money through the people, instead of through banks. (2) A little inflation is good for the economy; that's exactly what we need to ward off a recession (3) The US can export inflation to other countries by virtue of being the reserve currency of the world. | These three points together should address your fear of hyperinflation. I suggest you read Friedman and Keynes, both of whom suggested overt money financing as a mechanism to boost the economy.
Your point about the poor dropping out of the work force is based in class bias. Would you say that quantitative easing with banks blowing up asset bubbles would have the rich people dropping out of the work force? No one says that. The poor are not intrinsically different than the rich; the rich continue working when they have basic necessities met, and so will the poor.
Had QE 1 through 4 been dumped directly into circulation there would have been large scale inflation. I don't know anyone that would dispute that.
A little inflation (about 2%) is good because it means demand is outpacing supply. That means the economy is growing. That is different that inflation caused by the raw printing of money which is destructive. In WW2 Germany had considered the possibility of printing counterfeit British pounds and dropping them on Britain to destroy the currency and economy.
Hyperinflation in Germany was caused by a mix of high economic penalties post WW1 and reckless actions by private banks and investors. It's a common misconception that the hyperinflation was the fault of the government printing too much money, but that doesn't get at the underlying causes.
Would recommend taking a look through this, though you don't need to read to the end, as the article also covers the actions taken after hyperinflation started.
http://www.wintersonnenwende.com/scriptorium/english/archive...
> "My opinion is that there would be runaway inflation if you ended up with a situation where people had the option to drop out of the workforce funded by printed paper money."
You get around this by having debt-free money, which removes one of the key demands on money, the demand that it should be directed towards economic growth.
I agree to some degree. Germany was forced to pay reparations with goods such as coal. However, I've never seen it disputed that money printing causes hyperinflation. Sorry for the Wikipedia quote but I'm doing it...
"Hyperinflations are usually caused by large persistent government deficits financed primarily by money creation (rather than taxation or borrowing)"
In short you can't create value out of thin air. QE is a tool to keep credit flowing, but I guarantee you have never personally touched a dollar printed for the purpose of QE. If you have you were in a bank vault.
It can be caused by that, but you have to question what would cause a government to keep printing money when it became clear that inflation was too high?
With the example of German hyperinflation, printing/creating money wasn't the cause of hyperinflation, it was a symptom that resulted from forces in the German economy, specifically high demands from foreign countries as repayment for WW1 (even though it's debatable whether Germany really caused the war or were pushed into it by Britain, and I say this as someone from Britain) and recklessness on the part of private banks and investors. The German government didn't drive the country into hyperinflation. It's worth noting that even the German central bank was privately owned and run at the time, so all the money printing was happening in the private sector.
I'd be happy to explore an example of when a government created hyperinflation, are there any examples you know of?
The people who would benefit from it the most would have the freedom to invest their time and money raising their children, bettering themselves, or taking risks and starting businesses.
Also, money repeatedly changing hands itself generates tax revenue, as well as personal wealth. Again, not zero sum. Giving these people purchasing power can also spur innovation from businesses who would offer them services that otherwise wouldn't be easily monetizeable.
As more jobs get replaced with automation, basic income will become increasingly attractive.
Thinking that properly raising children and investing in bettering oneself doesn't tangibly generate revenue is a bit short sighted.
In 15 years when machines are cheaper and better at driving, manufacturing, and doing most unskilled labor (or even some knowledge worker type jobs). Would it have been a bad economic investment to have all the kids growing up today have parents with the financial freedom to go back to school or focus on giving their kids a proper childhood (so they can grow up and be productive citizens)?
Do you genuinely think that we are better off as a society sticking to "you have to work to live" when the machines are outperforming an entire class of people at their jobs? Not everyone can or wants to be an engineer. At some point our populations will stabilize, and technology will make it so that we have enough food and basic essentials for everyone.
We are all in it together.
We have been printing money for quantitative easing, but it isn't released into circulation. The Fed sets short term interest rates directly, but once those hit zero, the only alternative is QE. QE uses Fed cash (printed if you will) to buy US Treasuries thereby increasing the demand for them and driving down long term interest rates. The goal is to avoid the contraction of credit and the deleveraging of the US economy. If that much cash was just dumped into circulation you would see inflation on a large scale.
As for the rest of it I'm going on opinion which you and I have no chance of agreeing on (which isn't the end of the world, everyone has their own opinion). Yes I think child care and self improvement are great in the long run, but it can be tricky to measure exactly how much they contribute directly to GDP (quantitative measurement). Yes I also think work to live is better for society. I think work helps people stay out of trouble and even when I was making next to nothing it felt good to make my own way.
I take it you're in favour of financial market reforms too then?
http://www.economicsinpictures.com/2011/09/size-of-financial...
The image on that page is striking, but this is the key sentence: "Shares and bonds are about the same value of world GDP, but derivatives trading and foreign currency transactions are ten and fifteen times bigger than world gdp.".
Derivatives are a broad field, but can be summarised as bets based on whether the value of something rises or falls (similar statements can be made about foreign currency markets). This money being made on derivative markets only changes the wealth of those making the trades, so unless a productive company is making the trades they are purely unproductive. In effect, it's gambling.
In addition, money only 'performs work' at the point of exchange, which is why it's important to measure transactions rather than available currency. The vast majority of money movement exists outside the productive economy. Even without touching the productive economy directly, these trades can have adverse effects on the productive economy (destabilisation being the most obvious example, e.g. financial crisis of 2007-08).
Any questions at this point?
So financial derivatives? Futures, options, shorting etc? Derivatives can play a very important role in the financial system. They can also be abused.
Futures allow farmers (or airlines, or anyone else dependent on commodity prices) to hedge the chances of a bad harvest (or increased fuel prices) by locking in rates early. It's a form of insurance.
Options, (let's go with calls and puts) were initially seen as purely speculative, but combined with an actual position in the underlying security allow someone to make investments while minimizing their overall risk. Again they act as insurance by people who know how to use them. Morons can make naked calls or puts but the generally lose their shirt.
Shorting stocks plays a very important role in the financial world. Investors that short a company are one of the few entities that have a genuine interest in uncovering the dirt in a company. Regulators, share holders, etc may want to believe that a company like Enron is really doing well, but short sellers have a burning interest in combing through every line of their financial statement.
While CMO's got a bad name in 2008 they are still used today as a relatively high yield alternative to US Treasuries and other fixed income investments since the Fed has decided to keep interest rates near zero for the last 6 years.
CDO's also got a bad rap in 2008, but when used correctly they allow the transfer of risk from one party to another. Kind of like a cosigner on a loan. (gross over simplification, but good enough). If you're AIG and you don't actually have the money to backup all the CDO's your writing, then trouble can ensue.
Interest Rate swaps are probably what jacked up your dollar number in that article. They are the vast majority of derivative investments, but they allow companies with variable rate loans to hedge agains the risk of a rate hike, by swapping with a company that has higher, but fixed rate obligations. Those can be a very big win for both parties.
Financial derivatives get a bad rap because they sound scary and most people don't know what they are. They do however play a massively important role in managing risk.
Sorry if it came across like that, I did wonder if that's how it would be interpreted, but I wanted to make it clear that I was pausing for feedback. Thanks for not holding it against me, let's continue.
> "Financial derivatives get a bad rap because they sound scary and most people don't know what they are. They do however play a massively important role in managing risk."
I understand derivatives in general offer an insurance policy against uncertainty in financial markets (thanks for the explanations of the different types, a couple were new to me).
However, one could argue that insurance isn't a productive use of money, especially if the investment being insured against isn't part of the productive economy. What are your thoughts on this?
Yes I think insurance and other risk management tools are a very productive use of money. The joint stock company allowed the English and Dutch East India companies to take risks that no individual would be able to take alone.
Now if insurance allows someone who decides to build an ocean front home on the Gulf Coast where three other houses have already floated away then its not very productive.
Okay, so it is possible for insurance to be used for non-productive means. Would this extend to anything that wasn't a productive investment? For example, if I buy a house, and I insure that house, is the money I spend on insurance being productive?
Let's also extend this to at another example, the government bond market, which as I'm sure you're aware controls how much new money a government can create. If you take safeguards against hyperinflation, is there any reason you would want to keep the current government bond market (bearing in mind that the bonds come with a debt burden for the government)?
We are doing these already, and we are spending public money already.
The idea behind basic income is just adjusting where to input public money. Instead of watering the flowers (trickle down economics) you water the roots.
If people have some way to survive then they won't turn to crime and they will be able to buy goods. So this expenditure goes right back into the economy.
There have always been and always will be crap jobs that people would rather not do. If I'm making 18k working a crap job (been there) and I get a 30k basic income, why would I not quit the next day? Now I'm not producing any good or service, but I can demand 12k more in goods or services from the market.
Because if you keep the crap job then you make 48k and if you quit then you only make 30k. You are confusing welfare with basic income.
In any case Basic Income would not be at 30k, much lower. More likely $11k as that is the poverty line. The point is to prevent poverty which results in a much higher end cost to society.
For the strongest form of the author's argument; that no other system will suffice, ever; it has to be pathological. If I offered you a nice existence with entertaining leisure activities, would your response honestly be to spend the next ten years of your life lobbying for more of the pie? That's a lot of effort to expend - probably without any significant payoff since the return on happiness in terms of extra money drops off - when you could be enjoying yourself instead.
You don't need heaven if people aren't that greedy, (and in my experience - UK based - most people aren't.) Some finite set of resource will suffice.
Charles Koch was interviewed recently, and he apparently believes strongly that creating consumer surplus is more moral than not working.
Every day we are bombarded by advertising designed to seduce us into spending more money on products which we don't need. For example, is it really worth splashing out on a new power drill that will probably only be used to drill a few holes? Will a 2 week luxury cruise holiday bring me more enjoyment than 40 nights out with friends?
Websites such as which.co.uk, uswitch.com and moneysavingexpert.com help consumers make better decisions, but they don't address financial decision making in the wider sense of personal utility. It would be nice to see some websites/apps to help with this, and I think it would be an interesting and challenging task...