Apple Reports Record Fourth Quarter Results
apple.com
apple.com
In case you're doing the math at home:
~$24M/hour.
~$500,000/minute.
~$6,500/second.
(And an extra $200B in the bank.) Unbelievable.
AAPL also has about the same revenue growth as FB/GOOGL, while trading at about 1/10th the PE.
Man, Wall Streets really, really hate this company.
Apple is literally running into the, "How much more money could you possibly make?" problem.
The reason is that Wall St. is threatened by Apple because they cannot control them.
He added, "This would imply iPhone units down 1% to up 2% year-over-year. We view this as a relief given investors were bracing for the start of the 6S cycle to be down meaningfully (down 5-8% y/y)."
That second paragraph is key, iPhone sales are very uneven given the Apple upgrade and refresh cycle. Even Gene Munster, who you're quoting, is expecting them to sell ~242 million iPhones in CY2016, which is a 5% YoY increase on an absolutely massive base.
From a summary of his research report;
Finally, Munster is also bullish on Apple's anticipated
"iPhone 7," which he believes will begin driving
investor hype in the coming months, despite not being
expected to debut until September of 2016. With a so-
called "iPhone 7" expected to introduce a revamped
design, he believes next year's upgrade will be a
"more revolutionary cycle," driving sales of the
blockbuster handset even higher.
I guess technically, 5% YoY is slowing growth since their earlier performance was absolutely insane, but their iPhone ASP is still increasing to ~$675, so with 40% margins, 10 million incremental phones is another $2.7B in profits.By stacking up the dollars, Apple is positioning itself to be defined by its profitability. The have an innovative edge right now, but with increasingly less differentiation technology-wise, this positioning will be hard to turn against when they need to invest in reinventing themselves. If they don't plan to reinvent themselves, they face becoming another HP down the line.
They literally can't spend that much money, nobody can, Apple has enough cash reserve to fund NASA for the next 12 years for a literal moonshot project. Meanwhile Amazon's positive cash flow is less than one billion dollars per quarter and it's much easier to reinvest that much.
Even if Apple fund the entire Google X, it won't register as much bigger than a blip on their cash reserve.
not their core business.
Industry analysts and the media often claim that Apple is doomed, but given their earnings obviously this is far from the case.
And besides - what are they going to do with all that money?
At some point the actual size of the cash pile becomes an irrelevance - unless they're buying countries, secretly trying to set up a private army that could take on all the world's superpowers at the same time, or running a combined FTL/anti-gravity research lab.
The consensus seems to be that they will enter larger markets, like automobiles. Cars cost billions to research and develop and are therefore a difficult and expensive market to enter. If Apple does enter and dominate this market, that would cost them a huge amount of their cash store but would open up additional revenue streams similar or greater than they currently enjoy.
There's no market that Apple might enter that won't cost billions in research and development. How many billions have been invested already in iPhone, iPad and Mac product cycles?
If Apple does enter and dominate this market, that would cost them a huge amount of their cash store but would open up additional revenue streams similar or greater than they currently enjoy.
The development of the Apple car is being paid out of the R & D budget. Further, even with the tons of cash on hand, Apple has been active in bond markets around the world, since interest rates are near all-time lows. According to the conference call, Apple has borrowed around $56 billion, which they could easily fund all kinds of stuff, including the car.
edit: About $25k a year, with benefits according to the NY Times[1]. That would be about $13 an hour, although the NYT also quotes an employee making $11.25 an hour.
http://www.nytimes.com/2012/06/24/business/apple-store-worke...
but google searches for "apple poor working conditions" yields over 9mm results while "walmart poor working conditions" yields only 350k.
IPhone market share peaked long time ago and iPhone isnt growing as fast as the smartphone industry overall. Due to 3M sales from China moving to Q4 we didn't see sales peak but Christmas quarter seems to be a sales peak for YoY growth. Initial activation nunbers from China suggest a YoY decrease in units sold as well as some providers suggest Apple cut orders.
Let's see what Tim Cook can do as he has to use some actions beyond calendar tricks in next 4 quarters. Investors will hate a YoY revenue and iphone sales drop.
http://www.wsj.com/articles/apples-share-of-smartphone-indus...
Edit to add: This is the metric that says that life is awesome for taxi companies because Uber runs enormous losses. Profit is a useful metric (and Apple has awesome profits). Market share is a useful metric (and Apple has a small minority of the smartphone market share). Profit-share is something that somebody made up to make Apple's market share not seem as small.
Your taxi analogy is unsatisfying for a number of reasons, not the least of which is the utterly unrelated market conditions between that and the mature consumer electronics industry, but feel free to expand if you think it will go somewhere.
edit: clarity
But what the hell, I'm feeling unreasonable today:
Market share is meaningful because it demonstrates the size of the market that Apple could potentially reach.
Market share is meaningful because if Apple's market share falls below a critical percentage, people will not target the iPhone for app development (as happened with the Mac and is currently happening with, say, Windows Phone).
That said, market share is, of course, at least one of the relevant metrics but the market needs to be defined. Companies don't typically target the largest theoretically possible market for their products. They target a subset for a variety of reasons.
Except the data says differently. From the transcript of the conference call:
>The App Store set new all-time quarterly records for both the number of transacting customers and overall revenue. The strong performance of the App Store helped fuel 1.5 billion dollars in services revenue, also an all-time record.
But the iPhone isn't really in that position. Certainly, it seems to have no trouble attracting developers and companies creating apps to target travel, subscription, and other services.
But clearly iPhone is not in that position, I agree!
You mean like last year's holiday shopping numbers? From "Apple's iOS Has Once Again Decimated Android When It Comes To Data That Matters": http://www.businessinsider.com/ios-android-shopping-data-201...
>Adobe, which is tracking online shopping, reports the following: "iOS users drove four times as much mobile sales revenue as Android users, 79 and 21 percent respectively."
I remain unconvinced.
[1] Unless people won't buy from Apple even if they're the only game in town. But I doubt there's enough of those people to make a difference.
edit: formatting.
But, no, you're wrong, and the way you're wrong is doing an excellent job of demonstrating the problems with profit share.
There's not an amount of "profit" out there. There is sort of an amount of "revenue" out there. But Apple takes in a small minority of the revenue associated with smart phones, as demonstrated by their market share, which is something on the general order of 14%. The fact that other vendors are inefficient at turning their revenue into profits is neither here nor there.
Of course, the actual analysis is far more complicated than that, since the market isn't in fact a static thing. If Apple turned say half of their unit profits into price reductions, it would have enormous, chaotic effects on the smartphone market. I don't have the ability to predict what the end result would be, and neither does anyone here. But profit share doesn't tell us that Apple has no opportunity, and in fact it is a metric crafted to draw attention from the fact that Apple has a low market share, which does a better (though certainly imperfect) job of showing the opportunity.
A large part of the success of the iPhone is the 40% margin for many reasons.
What percentage of smartphone profits does the iPhone garner in Europe?
Similarly, there are certain industries that seem to be "cool" and people will try and compete in them regardless of profit. Smartphones seems like such a market. In a market where Apple and Samsung are the only two profitable makers and there's little innovative new features coming out, people still want in. I mean, Apple joined the smartphone market with a completely different design in the iPhone - no keyboard, capacitive multi-touch screen that dominated the phone, etc. Today, it's mostly polishing that formula introduced in 2007. Why would you want to enter an industry where you'd just be taking a display, a chip from Qualcomm or MediaTek, and a pretty standard body and camera, pair that with Android, and ship what everyone else is shipping? Are you doing anything better? Unlikely. And yet people want in even in the face of zero profits. So, even if Apple wiped out the current competition, it's likely that people would want in. And companies like OnePlus have shown that it's not terribly hard to join in the party.
Lowering margins probably wouldn't help Apple over the long run. Companies have shown a willingness to enter unprofitably and anti-trust attention on Apple could break their ability to continue profiting.
I think there are better articles out there than this one [0], but it was the first search result.
Thinking about their behaviors through that lens is interesting and, to me, clarifies a lot of the strategy behind some of their actions. Fun stuff.
[0]:http://www.cnbc.com/2013/10/15/apple-is-a-luxury-brand-not-a... AUTO PLAY NON-MUTED VIDEO WARNING
See: http://sethgodin.typepad.com/seths_blog/2009/05/luxury-vs-pr...
I think ultimately getting your product in more hands is a more worthy objective than "just" making the best products.
First phone with a decent development environment, SDK and App Store.
Good phone... still greedy.
(because, you know, it's going to be opinionated. I can just see the the Jony Ive ad now: "We rethought everything, took everything away that absolutely didn't need to be there. What we were left with was just that: left")
Hell, a lot of fleet management software for companies like UPS already tries to minimize the amount of left turns for this very reason.
[1] Android: https://play.google.com/store/apps/details?id=ca.cumulonimbu...
[2] iPhone: https://thesunshine.co/
edit: typo
[1] http://blog.gardeviance.org/2011/10/why-i-believe-aapl-will-...
The Watch would be this device as long as its gets more independent of the phone. Maybe a car in the future!
But in the near term, I would imagine their growth would taper off as more and more of the developing world get an iPhone (China still has few more years of growth) & Moore's law means features aren't added as often.
Apple has enough in the bank to make a strategic shift or leap into another market when that starts to happens (who knows what they haven't released that they've been prototyping for years).
I mean what would buy apart from a phone and a watch (& a car) thats worth more than $500?
Smart Shoes? :)
The performance downgrade is even worse on last years 6, 6+ and 5S, they stutter and drop frames while scrolling.
But anyway, show me that test with a full battery. How do you know the phone isn't coming in and out of a power conservation mode when you're doing your test on a 12% battery?
Why? Because I look upon the iPhone, or any smartphone, in whatever incarnation you are holding, to be a amazing feat of engineering. The fact it works like it does is something nobody could have forseen 10 years ago.
And here we are bitching about a glitch in a transition effect. You need some perspective, brother.
My perspective is that I will enjoy the wondrous functionality more without glitchy transitions. Get them right or turn them off. You can call it bitching, but fit and finish is a major part of the apple brand that people value.
2) They explicitly praise improved user experience and performance enhancement for their most recent iOS shipped
3) These issues weren't on the iOS prior update.
So, bitching ? No thanks my friend, I just want something that was working as advertised before fixed. If I wanted frame drops and stuttering, I wouldn't pay 800$ for a phone, but get a 100$ Android phone (which at modern hardware doesn't even have those issues anymore that are so apparent).
Stop excusing companies.
I'd say the most serious "issue" is that animations/transitions still take a lot longer than they should, and as far as I can tell you can't trigger any action while the transition isn't finished. i.e. you press home to go to the home screen and while the home screen is appearing you can't press an app icon yet.
We all know that blackberry was still making great sales until the very last moments of its expected collapse, simply because good business managers always find a way to grab some profits in the short term eventhough things look bad in the long term.
I knew before that ios 9 had huge graphical performances issues, but i didn't know it was that bad.
Since it's graphical, i have another theory which is that johnny ive asked to add invisible gui effects a little bit everywhere in the OS, and that it baddly affected the overall performance of the OS.
Regarding the performance degradation, I assume it has to do with Metal. Apple said iOS9 will feature Metal as a replacement for OpenGL throughout the system for better performance. Well we didn't see any of that. The stutters have been there since Beta 1 in June.
With the added competition from Microsoft, I'm sure they will be pushing even harder for the next release. I am hoping a recent down-trend will be well reverse via software updates to come, apparently the phones need some more optimization? But also nice to see competition on features, form factor, power, display size... seems like some really good Surface products and I'm not following Apple as closely I guess.
The market has no idea how to value it. Which should mean a huge opportunity for someone who does?
(I wonder if 10 hours late this can get any responses)
Anybody know whether this beat expectations or not? It doesn't explicitly say it in the press release.
Edit: According to Fortune, looks like this was a modest beat: http://fortune.com/2015/10/27/apple-beats-expectations-stock...
But even though it's priced as if the company is dying, analysts are still expecting it to grow 20%+.
The disconnect is almost funny.
The iPad was great when the iPhone was small, but Apple has basically cannibalized iPads with plus size phones. The large iPad Pro will be a wait and see thing.
People forget that 4% of AAPL's revenue is about $10 billion.
http://appleinsider.com/articles/13/06/13/us-assembly-of-app...
2) If they are more qualified for a higher paying position or different job, they should move to it.
Apple doesn't owe them anything, and it certainly doesn't need people attempting to tell Apple how to pay their employees. If you don't like it, move to another group, end of story.
Edits to be nicer and clearer
That's not an excuse.
"If they are more qualified for a higher paying position or different job, they should move to it."
There are all kinds of reasons why a person wouldn't move jobs. Pay is not the only reason.
"Apple doesn't owe them anything, and it certainly doesn't need people attempting to tell Apple how to pay their employees. If you don't like it, move to another group, end of story."
Would Apple be anywhere near as successful if they didn't start in the US?
leaving the world better than we found it.
Good Grief!Edit: Did I hit a nerve or what!