The $160 Lesson: Apps Beat Devices
avc.com
avc.com
Wow. This is simply an extreme over-generalization of a single use-case being applied to entire industries. The author of the article is also a VC with a vested interest in 'apps'. Shocker.
Nice press-hack Mr. Wilson, but present-day facts and digital computing history are not in your favor.
Moore's law and Gilder's law illustrate that a democratization of hardware and connectivity outpace the ability of generic software to be written to connect them.
The future is in MORE devices, not less.
Granted, the practical use-cases for "generic devices running task-specific apps" grows as interfaces become standardized and increased portable computing power allows for more near real-time workflows from non-dedicated real-time hardware. All modern TVs and Set-top boxes are really powerful computers running "video apps". We are finally arriving at dawn of the "univeral remote", but home media consumption is an extremely small sliver of computing.
Wherever safety, security, and low-attention/muscle-memory/real-time response properties dominate the workflow, a task-specific combination of hardware & software (e.g. a Device) works better. And those devices are getting cheaper and cheaper to produce every day.
For example, look at the large variety of input and monitoring Devices which come coupled with household products (stereos, garage door openers, cars, hot tubs, baby monitors, etc.).
Further from home, Internet routers used to simply be generic Unix boxes. Now routers run their own hardware platforms and dedicated operating systems. The same applies to industrial welding/manipulation robots.
Input used to come exclusively from serial line keyboard terminals. Now a whole range of dedicated input Devices (mice, trackpads, haptic probes, eye-trackers, isometric sticks) and their respective software drivers, provide the vast bulk of user input data.
People aren't going to trust the safety and security of their health, homes, cars, or children to the latest v2.1 update in the App store, but they'll (somewhat unhappily) wait on the latest firmware update while their Scientific Atlanta cable box reboots.
The comparison was being made to previous generations of digital TVs and set top boxes, not to generic home PCs or laptops. Similarly, look at the evolution of dedicated game consoles.
- Door openers
- Car Keys
- Heat control
- Remote controls
- Universal lamp control
- Gas/Electricity meter
MasterCard is already ahead on the game with this. I believe there's been a trial in the US with this, on a Nokia handset I believe. There's currently a trial being launched with BlackBerry and the Bank of Montreal for a test in Montreal (although in reality it will work with all PayPass enabled machines in Canada, including all Tim Hortons, McDonalds, etc). I believe this test is slightly different in that the system auto-emails a receipt to the BlackBerry user's email.
I know PayPass hit the market earlier than Visa, so I believe visa is still playing catch-up. I have read Visa's started trailing its paywave in cell phones, however its first trial was 2 years behind MC's, so I believe it's still 2 years behind MC in its usage of paywave. If paywave hits the market big in say 2012, it'll likely be 2014 until people are using it with visa's.
This is also where Android, being more open, has a potential edge -- it should be possible to make even better things given the greater freedom allowed, but at present the massive market share advantage of the iPhone means we're going to continue to see innovation primarily over there in the short term.