I get what you're saying, and I've tried both ways: using project structure to explicitly force modularity vs trying to instill culture and practices to preserve modularity within a monolith. I should mention I am a consultant, so I tend to work in enterprise environments with varying levels of practices and maturity.
My experience has been that lots of different people will touch a codebase over the lifetime of a piece of software, and they will have varying skill levels. Even if everyone on the team right now will avoid creating a ball of spaghetti, at some point everyone involved will be gone. Patches and new functionality end up getting bolted on and added to an ever growing list of technical debt (we'll get to it, we swear). 10 years down the line no one can maintain it because no one knows what the interactions are across the system.
Splitting code into separate services/codebases doesn't totally prevent this from happening, but it does make it a lot harder. First, adding coupling is no longer the path of least resistance when you "need to delivery yesterday". Second, each service is significantly easier to grok than a single legacy monolith, and therefore easier to refactor back to sanity.
Vaguely related, I also really like how microservices offer a non-insane approach to modernizing a large system. A lot of my clients have large highly-coupled mainframe applications written in Smalltalk/COBOL/etc. They want to migrate to a "modern" language (ie one with a workforce). Big bang migrations almost never work, so we end up carving off functionality, re-implementing it in the new framework, and then integrating it with the monolith via messaging/services. Microservices make it easier to pull out one piece and rewrite it, without having to also touch every client.