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Comment by qwerty85344324 | Hacker News Reader

Crime rates have plummeted since we have started being "tough on crime". We are all much safer than we were decades ago. Isn't our incarceration system working? What's the issue here?

http://www.immigrationpolicy.org/sites/default/files/figure_...

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You'd need to show a causal relationship to make that argument.

More criminals behind bars, lower crime. It may not fit your narrative but it should not be hard to understand.

I'm not arguing for any particular "narrative" although you seem to be.

You seem to be suggesting that more criminals behind bars leads to lower crime. Is there any evidence that this is true? Could this be a coincidence, or could there be some other factor lowering crime? Are you jumping to conclusions based on your own favorite narrative?

The OP similarly lists two facts and then jumps to the same conclusion: Crime rates have plummeted, and we are all much safer than we were decades ago. (Therefore) our incarceration system working?

I think to make that claim one must "show one's work".

>Could this be a coincidence

It could be aliens, but Occams razor. Criminals cannot commit crimes if they are in prison. It is quite revealing that people willfully deny that and the narrative is the cop is the perp and the perp is the victim.

Really, so if your neighbor smokes pot in his home that's a safety issue for you? It's possible that as a result of policy changes we're arresting and keeping incarcerated more people who would have committed crimes, but at the same time we're likely keeping many people in prison who would likely not commit crimes. The aggregate loss of human freedom and productivity is pretty staggering for you to just wash your hands of the problem.

Only .7% of those in prison are there for marijuana possession as their only crime - https://www.ncjrs.gov/ondcppubs/publications/pdf/whos_in_pri... And among those possession could mean as much as 100 pounds. The idea that our prisons are full of people who were just smoking pot in their own homes is ludicrous. Whatever our views on whether it is sane to make marijuana illegal, locking up pot smokers is not the cause of mass incarceration.

Statistics are subject to manipulation of the definitions. Not saying this is happening here, but for instance, if you put ticky-tack new offenses on the books that are easily enforceable, then the crime _rate_ will "plummet" while not actually addressing existing problems.

We should not take definitions at face value.

As far as I'm aware the evidence points to a correlation between sentence length and recidivism.

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