Kinda depends on which platform you were on (GJP used several). Some were prediction markets while some were opinion pools, both of which are scored/rewarded differently.

Our company (Cultivate Labs) recently acquired Inkling Markets (a very early YC company that built prediction market software) and have been building a new version of the PM platform, which will hopefully address some of the risk/reward quirks.

If you're interested in this stuff, you might be interested in the two topical PM sites we're launching: -https://sportscast.cultivateforecasts.com/ (obviously focused on sports) -https://alphacast.cultivateforecasts.com/ (officially launching later this week, focused on global finance, politics, & tech).