America as Texas vs. California, U-Haul Version

Anyone who is interested knows by now how to follow it. It is no longer news. As for the statistics given, there is no question that difficult local economic conditions are going to result in people leaving. And that will result in cost differentials in Uhaul rates. Current results can be seen from a glance at the economy. But the results fluctuate over time, 5 years ago California did not look so bad and 5 years from now it probably won't either. Uhaul rates usually reflect transient conditions and not fundamental problems.

Now he's focused on facts that make California look bad. But that is just fact selection. If he had a different bias he'd note that California's atrocious way of managing itself has consistently lead to an excess of economic growth compared to the rest of the country. That is why average salaries here are higher, property here costs more, and expenses here are also higher. (Which explains why education here costs more.)

Furthermore over time California consistently has paid more into the union than it has taken away, and Texas has done the reverse. Sure, the current budget here is a mess, but if California could ask back from the federal government the recent excess that it sent, California's budget would be fine. If we did the same exercise with Texas, Texas would be worse off than the California state government is now.

So if you look at one set of figures, Texas is better. If you look at another it looks like California works better. Reality as always is messy, and perception is more in the eye of the beholder than the facts on the ground.

The actual data doesn't seem to fit the author's assessment.

California per capita GDP in 2008: 42,064 (ranked 7th) Texas per capita GDP in 2008: 38,044 (ranked 19th)

U-Haul prices could be explained by demand. There could simply be more demand and fewer available trucks in California.

Anecdotally, I've lived in both states and the quality of life in California is infinitely better =)

1) Which unemployment number is he using? I assume U3, but it would still be good to know. I'd like to see the media boosting awareness of the various U's and what they mean.

2) The Valley area has a significant population of startup folks, many of whom are "unemployed" in the sense that they live off savings while building their company. How are these people listed in BLS stats? Are there enough of them (e.g. 300-600k) to slant the numbers by 1-2%?

Wrong.

This is a classic case of using hard data to jump to a false conclusion to support your argument.

OP conveniently omits the simple fact that it has always cost 50% to 300% more to ship anything from west to east, whether its a rental truck, container, or LTL load. Why? Because most food in the United States moves from west to east. So the demand for space on equipment returning to California for more food has always been lower.

Anyone involved in trucking, logistics, or distribution has known this for years. When in doubt, keep inventory in the eastern part of the U.S. because in an emergency, it's always cheaper to ship from east to west. Hell, many manufacturers have found it's actually cheaper to make a new product than to ship an existing one back from west to east.

Entire manufacturing and distribution facilities have been built in the east financially justified by freight rate differences alone.

Sorry OP, your false argument is outed. At least until someone figures out how to grow produce in Philadelphia in February.