The Gutless Cutlass: Pilots had good reason to fear the F7U
airspacemag.com
airspacemag.com
Navy pilots of the era had about a 1 in 5 career chance of death, without any help from an enemy.
Then, suddenly, around the end of the 1960s, the job was done. The 1960s produced the SR-71, the F-4 fighter, the OH-58 helicopter, the Boeing 747, and the Concorde, all of which were quite good and were used for decades thereafter. Since then, most aircraft development has been continuous minor improvements.
I always end up on deep wiki-walks from these kinds of articles...
BTW, after reading the article, make sure you catch the author's byline at the bottom...
> Supporters say it was a necessary step in the advancement of naval aviation, and that while the numbers were bad, so were the numbers of just about everything involving jet fighters and aircraft carriers in the early to mid-1950s.
Given the desire to show the Cutlass off at airshows, I'm surprised there weren't any massive disasters, though I suppose if there were, we wouldn't be reading about the F7U today...though apparently when a British prototype jet killed 31 people at a show, it still managed to make it into service after being grounded: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1952_Farnborough_Airshow_DH.11...
Similar story in modern aviation. Some things are just too expensive to get wrong. Some things are too specific to get wrong. Spaceflight is both.
On the other hand, all of the test pilots killed by the Cutlass (and most killed by aviation since Thomas Selfridge) were highly-skilled people.
The motto was "Mars by 1965, Saturn by 1970" (but that was probably optimistic... by maybe five years or so. :-) )
And sure, there was talk about a failed launch increasing the background radiation by 1%. Some cancer risk would arguably be cheap to get an industrial infrastructure outside the atmosphere.
(Also note the implications for the Great Filter theory regarding the Fermi paradox. With a bunch or Orion launches starting in the 1970s we could have viable colonies somewhere between now and 2030. So any big catastrophe as filter would need to sterilize a whole solar system, not just a planet.)
[1]: https://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Vought_F7U_Cutlas...
For every innovation there is a universe of information, some of which points to its success and some that points to its failure, and much that is uncertain and subject to interpretation. Also, many innovators envision novel goals and possibilities, but the public is stuck in the old mindset. To the extent the innovation is politicized, critics will emphasize one set of data and interpretations, and supporters will emphasize another, and most will be answering the wrong questions with misunderstood information. A realistic understanding of innovation, the new goals, and the technology itself is often left out of the conversation.
When the innovation is or isn't adopted (which might be due to market issues or politics - sometimes those critics are self-fulfilling - and have nothing to do with the technology) senseless narratives tell stories in hindsight where the result was obvious the whole time, as if the critics/supporters analyses were 'right' and more meaningful than coin flips.
A useful post-mortem would grasp the goals, uncertainty, and risks of innovation. What did they envision? What were they hoping to achieve? What was known and where were the risks? How were those risks managed and how did they turn out? Given the innovators uncertainty, what could they have done differently? Did the innovation fail to be adopted because of tech? Politics?
Last but not least he still gave a pretty good technical reason for the failure of the design - the under-powered engines that delivered about 2/3 of what they were supposed to deliver and that could not be exchanged for more powerful ones.
All in all I think it is a pretty nice read for a lazy Sunday afternoon :)
I guess the developement philosphy for the Cutlass would be "fix it in production."
I'd point out similarities to teething problems with the F-35 -- the first time the USMC deployed it, didn't they find that the exhaust would damage deck plating, which subsequently had to be strengthened? Didn't happen when Harriers are taking off and landing...