so.. a double blow, the great recession and the new decade of retirement, its a slow fade to #4 or #5 in world GDP.
IIRC, he even suggested that Europe's long period of stagnation during the Dark Ages was because real interest rates were so high that rational entrepreneurs would never invest in new technology, because there was no conceivable way that they could generate a positive return on capital. And that the pyramids were ancient Egypt's solution to the problem of Keynesian stimulus (i.e. nobody was investing, so they built the pyramids to forcibly confiscate money through taxes and then distribute it to workers who would actually spend it).
It makes me wonder what we're in for over the next 10 years. I don't really believe the "permanently stuck in a deflationary trap" theory - there's too much evidence against it. But I think the normal way countries get out of it is through war, which isn't terribly rosy either. In addition to the direct Keynesian stimulus, it also encourages rapid technological development, which opens up new markets that then become fertile ground for investment after the war.
I don't disagree with your comment. I'd like to read a good article or paper explaining/disproving the deflationary trap.
How about an upsurge in space exploration? The colonization of Mars, enabled by plasma rocket technologies like VASIMIR? The exploration and colonization of Mars has been likened to the exploration and colonization of the Americas. Mars has sunlight and soil suitable for cultivation of terrestrial crops, and geology influenced by large amounts of water, which likely means deposits of easily exploitable ores. (The point being, to exploit resources locally, and to use Mars as a base of solar-system wide civilization, not to export back to Earth. Mars is positioned advantageously to be the center of economic power of such a civilization. Earth, disadvantaged by its large gravity well, will become a 2nd rate location.)
It sounds far-fetched, but I think a careful examination of technology will reveal it to be quite plausible. Unfortunately, opportunities for colonization have historically led to war.
The idea that war has worked to end depressions is well debunked. In any useful measure economies always deteriorate through war. Living standards in the US fell all through WWII and continued falling until demobilization. GDP goes up during war because of weapon purchases. And unemployment goes down when you draft (enslave) people. So these are meaningless measures. You have to look at households.