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This implies there is currently some functioning central government, which is mostly a polite fiction. One of Afghanistan's fiefdoms is centered on Kabul, and we pretend that one is the government.

It's not really native to Kabul area, but loosely representative of former Northern Alliance (read: Tajik). And Pushtu tribes (southeast of the country, Taliban demographics) are not happy about that and never going to accept it.

Maybe it could be better to really split Afghanistan by ethnic boundaries, then there could be hope of building some form of society in one of them. Of course, not going to happen.

This is almost a no-brainer. I also predict something similar to a rerun of the soviet withdrawal.

The government of America, or of Afghanistan?

Afghanistan of course. I would venture to guess that it'll still be Karzai by that time.

why not both?