In 2010 China will become the world’s second-largest economy
economist.com
economist.com
That is to say, I think the cost of commercial real estate (and likely residential) is currently too high. But that seems to indicate that it will eventually go down - if enough people start realizing they can't turn a profit with the property they're looking to rent, demand will sag, and prices should follow.
But maybe not in the near future - we've been seeing some serious inflation over the past couple of months.
Actual unemployment is closer to 22% (according to shadowstats.com, using the pre-Clinton Administration formula).
Aside from this article referencing their own "Economist Intelligence Unit" - how do we know the numbers are not similarly fudged by the Chinese government? Are there not billions of dollars of loans marked as "good" on state-run banks that are in fact, never going to be repaid?
It argues that China's investment boom is not going to continue and that private consumption cannot possibly fill the void. They think the bubble is going to burst in 2010/2011 and they have pretty convincing numbers. I'd love to hear why they are wrong.
The paper argues that China's urbanization rate is already much higher than is commonly believed, due to China's definition of an urban centers. It notes that Houston or Brisbane would not be counted as cities, due to low population density. But, as a Chinese resident, I don't find it unreasonable at all that Houston wouldn't be counted as a city here - Houston, w/ a population of 2.2m and a density of 1375 people / square kilometer, is dwarfed when you compare it to a dense city of 11+ million like Tianjin, which is considered a bit of a hick town here in Beijing.
It seems unreasonable to use American standards for the definition of a city when China's population to usable land ratio is much higher than is frequently encountered in the West.
hmmm.... new superpower indeed, in paper at leas
One downside is Chinese government's tight control on internet.
The argument is, like what China did to its steel/telecom/coal business (FYI, are controlled by the nation itself). It tries to gain control on Internet, not only in management standpoint but actual business (nationalization). A more interesting view is that as most children of China's high level officials are in their 20s. They are likely to do Internet related business. Well, powerful parents bring benefits. It is not bad or unfair and it is understandable worldwide. But using your parents' money and relations to build business is millions light years far from what they do today in China. For example, Li Hehe, the son of Li Zhaoxing (former foreign minister of China) established a SNS website called 99sushe (http://99sushe.com). He actually uses his father's relation to have everyone who attend national English test (known as CET-4, required for college graduation) to register on his site in order to review their scores (http://cet.99sushe.com/). I see it as a classic abuse of their power. Far worse, to my knowledge, it is only a beginning.
YC is a institution which only provides a little money, good atmosphere, relations and access to first tier VC and law firms. Good lawyer, enough money and a brilliant you, that is the only things you need for doing "free" business in open countries (EU or U.S.). But in China, you need to build relations with high level officials. For a UGC site, you have to hire a person to delete contents immediately when the Internet cops phone you. It is just not economical for startup. But unfortunately these are crucial for your business success in China, and these are something YC China (in my imagination) cannot provide.
For one thing, there is an endless supply of obnoxious and moderately expensive government obstacles (I just paid the Beijing tax bureau ~5000 RMB for a receipt-printing machine).
For another thing, entrepreneurship is not well-respected in China like it is in the States. The general attitude is that if you have money, you almost certainly did something illegal to get it.
The big cities in China are not San Francisco. I think YC would be hard-pressed to find the sizable bubble of free-wheeling, free-thinking potential entrepreneurs to which it is accustomed.
Its claim to fame is that it was founded by KaiFu Lee, founder of MSRA and Google China. He's pretty much the Bill Gates of China.
On the first day of applications, they had something crazy like 30,000 resumes for 30 slots. So I'd say it's slightly competitive :)
They're nearly 1/6th of mankind. It's just amazing how such a large number of people can pull themselves out of the most wretched kind of poverty.
Indias and Africas of the world should take note.