The Apple Tablet | Hacker News Reader

The Apple Tablet

daringfireball.net

254 pointsadamhowell143 comments

I think Gruber's got it right.

Of course, as a Power User, this leaves me... I dunno, miffed? Annoyed? Agitated?

I'm like 90% sure I'm going to want this thing if only for the fact that it's an eBook reader plus other stuff, but I don't see it being able to replace my laptop for programming when I'm away from home. That's not Apple's fault for introducing something that doesn't completely subsume the personal computing experience, but it leaves me somewhat anxious that now I'm going to be carrying around an iPhone and a MacBook AND an MacLet (iSlate, iTablet, TaBook, iWhatwever) when I go on a trip or something.

That's just too much gear! I at least hope there's some sort of unified power solution between MacBooks or iPods and this thing.

Exactly - I expect you are right in the same spot as the rest of us. What I'm wondering about, as I have my MacBook sitting on my chest while typing - is how/will we type into the MacTablet so I can make posts like this one? The MacTablet will likely _nail_ eBook reading (And I say this as a Kindle, K2, and Kindle-on-iPhone regular user), Video (over 200 iTunes videos, mostly TV Shows, purchased in the last three years) and, of course, web browser (though flash is a wildcard)

There may be some _new_ sweet spots created though - the one that comes to my mind - Photo Management/selection/uploading - Something fast, light(er) and easier than a MacBook to pair up with my EOS 7D would be nice. I'm just _praying_ that it will take a USB-GSM/1xEVDO wireless connection so I can use my existing USA(Sprint 1xEVDO) and Canadian(Bell-GSM) connections.

Here's just one of many potential sweet spots: I've been looking for a solution for a portable music reader for some time; the Kindle and Sony Reader's screens are a bit too slow, too dim, too small and are straight PDF readers (meaning, no intelligence around multiple endings, codas, and etc.) and the dedicated solutions out there aren't exactly worth the money as they're one-use devices. There's always the option of getting a used TabletPC and installing some music reading software designed for touchscreen, but I've been avoiding that because we really have no use for the keyboard, and their interfaces were never as snappy as even the iPhone's.

Count me in as pleasantly hopeful that this is a real product, and that I can get sheet music onto it in a way that allows for ease of using it live...

While we're all making predictions with no basis in fact: If in fact Gruber is right and the MacLet will not be a giant-screen iPhone, but rather an entirely new thing intended as the future of personal computing, I predict that every app available for the MacLet will be officially available for the MacBook. The most straightforward would be an officially-supported MacLet emulation mode for MacBooks.

If Apple really is going to position the MacLet OS as the next step in MacBook evolution, they're going to want to gradually transition MacBooks, and the bulk of their owners, toward the MacLet way of doing things. And the way to do that is the same way that Apple has pulled off every other major architectural transition in Mac history: Emulation.

Actually, let's have even more fun by noting that the Mac tradition has always been the other way around: Introduce the shiny new thing, but provide consolation by having it seamlessly [1] emulate the tired old thing. That implies that the MacLet might have a Mac OS X Desktop emulation mode, not the other way around. Now that would be interesting.

---

[1] Well, seamlessly enough to make it usable, but not so seamlessly that it doesn't still feel tired and old. The freight train of Progress must not be derailed!

To continue the baseless speculation: I think your second point would be closer to likely because old and busted lacks the touch screen input in this case.

I too agree. After seeing the Joojoo, I thought, it'd be better to get that thing instead of a laptop. And when I need to be at home to program, I just attach a keyboard. Keyboards can pretty small nowadays. The only time I really need to type a while are when I'm writing blogposts and programming, and usually I have a hard surface available for that. Every other time, like for search terms and comments, it's enough to use a touchscreen keyboard.

You won't need to carry around different devices because you won't need to. you'll use the Tablet instead of your laptop--and perhaps (but less likely), your iPhone.

Just like having a multi-touch screen relieves the need for a mouse, I think there's a possibility that something similar exists for typographic input. If not, I don't mind just attaching a keyboard.

...or using the fancy bluetooth mouse/keyboard combo Apple already has. I can imagine having this tablet that, if I was at my desk, could basically act like an iMac if it could communicate with a wireless keyboard and/or mouse.

Particularly if it comes with a charging stand that holds it in an approximately upright, forward facing position.

Like Gruber says, I think the likeliest solution to the too-much-gear problem is that the iWhatever will simply replace laptops at some point. Maybe I'm being unimaginative, but it seems like anything a 10-inch screen can do, a 13-inch screen can do better, so maybe they'll eventually have a ~13-inch version. And at that point, it'll be too close to a laptop for both to continue existing.

The counterargument is that the iWhatever will be too specialized to replace laptops, but to reference Gruber again, that level of niche play isn't really Apple's style.

whenever i read these thread i think about the famous cmdrtaco quote about the original ipod launch:

"No wireless. Less space than a nomad. Lame." http://apple.slashdot.org/article.pl?sid=01/10/23/1816257

and that was after launch. pre-launch speculation about how it isn't worth buying because of some hypothesized reason are mostly for fun!

That quote should go on his headstone when he dies.

Apple has a long history of releasing products that look like losers when one compares a bullet list of features with the competition. I bought a Sansa with twice the storage of the current ipod and grew to hate the device, despite the fact that it won on paper. Apple's products have design and usability features that the competition has never even considered. (one example - the dozens of times that the magsafe connector on my MacBook has saved the day).

Agreed. In my head, I call this the "blender" comparison that many technophiles seem to use.

Want to compare two meals? Put them in the blender and analyze the nutritional content of the resulting goop.

What? You don't compare food by spec sheets? (Calories, vitamins, carbs, proteins). What are these subjective "texture, taste, style, temperature, presentation" variables you care about? They offer little or no nutritional difference!

Very good point, and quite illustrative. Same thing with cars; normal people rarely buy cars based on pure performance metrics.

Much like when my Dad bought a Dell jukebox despite me insisting he get an iPod. It didn't take him long to really regret the decision. More companies could stand to learn from Apple's ability to look at the whole story of the product.

I think there is a huge market for a company who does everything like Apple, except with a different look and style. An iPod with un-rounded corners so to speak.

A bit out of topic... but I really hate the magsafe connector, it always falls off of the computer, restrict me in which positions I can use my laptop and all that for the unlikely possibility of it saving the day if I trip on the wire

But, yes apart from this, I love apple's attention to details.

I've had a Sansa for two years and have had no problems with it. It was cheap, it's easy to use, it has good storage, it doubles as a cheap voice recorder, it's easy to add and remove music (I use Rhythmbox on Linux or drag-and-drop on Windows), the battery lasts a long time. I'm curious to know why you hate yours.

Mine required manually switching from one mode to another (which ended up being about a 3-5 minute reboot, as it had to then detect all of the music on the device) when I wanted to add new music. I'd plug it into my mac and it would sometimes show up and sometimes not. There were times when I'd be attaching and detaching it over and over again for about 15 minutes. I change my music daily (I have a long commute), so this became quite onerous and hated.

Drag-and-drop to add music means that the device has to tediously index itself or have terrible metadata support, usually both.

It's a hell of a misfeature, one that nearly all of Apple's non-Zune competitors are drawn to, since they have no hope of competing with iTunes as a music organizer and they have a very vocal clique of customers that demand it (like support for OGG and FM Radio).

Not to mention it was Mac only!

And Firewire, which most computers didn't have.

Well, pretty much all Macs did at the time, so that wasn't too relevant.

USB was ridiculously slow at the time, mind you.

Was? USB2 still is -- goddamn interrupt-based I/O is for mice, not mass storage!

Most important part of the article...

"But there’s one question at the top of the list, the answer to which is the key to answering every other question. That question is this: If you already have an iPhone and a MacBook; why would you want this?

The epigraph I used to start this piece — the bit about Steve Jobs demanding that a tablet be useful for more than just reading on the can — indicates that Apple will release nothing without such an answer. I agree that such an answer is essential."

I'm no prophet so I won't even guess whether he (or everyone else for that matter) is right or wrong on what's coming. What I will say is the "Cone of Silence" he refers to is encouraging.

As he points out in the article the last time Apple had all the engineers drop off the grid like this was before the iPhone launch. Given that I have to assume Apple thinks they have something big here (on the logic of the cone's impenetrability being proportional to how great Steve J. thinks the product is)

> all the engineers drop off the grid like this

"The demo was not going well..."

"By January 2007, when Jobs announced the iPhone at Macworld, only 30 or so of the most senior people on the project had seen it."

http://www.wired.com/gadgets/wireless/magazine/16-02/ff_ipho...

Maybe it's just me, but I could see many uses for a tablet beyond just reading in the bathroom or in bed. For any job where you're standing/ walking and taking notes (real estate agents, etc), it's awkward to try to open a macbook, and the iphone is too tedious.

Pair a tablet with a solid voice to text app, and it'd be pretty useful for lawyers, reporters, etc.

Still a small niche.

Note taking is not just for real estate agents, either. One thing I'm surprised people aren't talking about more is that a well-designed tablet could be a hit in college and even primary school lecture halls and classrooms. Considering Apple's historical prominence in the higher education market, this seems like a natural target for them.

You mean something like an Apple Newton?

Without the arkward pen?

I just want a DRAWING tablet from Apple!!! The smallest Cintiq is a thousand bucks and I have to have a computer attached to it! Give me a drawing tablet that I can also read PDFs on (and wireless on a pricier model) and I'll be all set.

Also, I want color. If it isn't color, I'll just buy a kindle.

I don't care about keyboard. iPhone style is painful, but I'll endure. Bonus points if it can recognize handwriting.

A table will not replace a computer that is used for a desk job like programming, I think it will be a great multi-purpose device for more casual, every-day activities. Pretty exciting to think about the possibilities. Letting my mind roam for a few seconds, here are some ideas.

- Note taking: can it be good enough to work like a pen on paper? - Clip to a portable dock to use like a laptop/desktop - Perfect for presentations and meetings where a laptop may be too bulky - Hang it on the wall and show photos - Reading recipes in the kitchen - Maps and GPS (especially with voice input/output) - No more printing required, the tablet works as a companion to my desktop/laptop - Video chat - Browsing, reading, videos - Access to light-weight web apps, email, docs, etc

Developers got incredibly creative with iPhone apps (like the Ocarina app), I'm sure there will be a ton of simple, surprising applications coming out of the ecosystem.

The two best killer apps I've heard of for the iTablet are gaming and magazines. It seems likely to me that this will be the first Apple device with Apple silicon for the CPU, and from what I hear that means it's going to have some serious 3D muscle. The magazine bid is riskier, but has significant payoff. The Kindle isn't going to deliver gorgeous full-color content any time soon, but the iTablet surely will. I predict games and magazines will be the killer apps for the iTablet.

Some game-changing plan involving magazines and news publishing seems likely to me. Fixed-format, locked down accounts, etc. Bold interactive ads with audience data potentially tied to specific user info. Whatever Apple does, it will be bold.

I'm not convinced, however, that gaming will be a major part of it.

Here's my bit of wild-eyed far-out speculation:

A lot of people are speculating that the killer app for the Apple Tablet will be X or that it will be Y. However, the bigger picture involves the following:

    - What major inconvenience does it solve?
    - What Possibilites inherent in the form factor?
    - How will it fit into the Apple ecosystem?
    - How will it fit into the general ecosystem?

At least 3 out of 4 of these are key questions for any Apple product.

Major inconvenience solved:

I believe that the Apple Tablet will be a UMPC. It will have enough memory to store all of your personal data (perhaps not including video content). I would be the ultimate solution to all sync problems. In true UMPC fashion, you would be able to conveniently carry your data with you everywhere including on the plane. It will act as a "hub" for such data.

Possibilites inherent in the form factor:

Everything the iPhone is a little too small for. An agenda can work on the iPhone screen, but it would be much better on a 7" or 10" screen. A 7" or 10" screen is large enough to be a digital "Moleskine" or sketchbook. It is comfortably large enough to be a whole house remote control. It can serve as a richer augmented reality interface than an iPhone. Photo touchup in the field -- better on a larger screen than the iPhone.

How will it fit into the Apple ecosystem?

Everything will sync to the tablet. The tablet will be primary store of such information. Mobile Me will be the web accessible copy. The iMac will be there for an even richer input/display and have the computing/graphics horsepower for serious work. Laptops will get phased out, in favor of inexpensive, lightweight input/display clamshells. (Bonjour is the key to Apple's future!)

How will it fit into the general ecosystem?

The UMPC will come into its own. Laptops & netbooks will die off, become the purchase of those who can only afford one piece of kit, or morph into high-end specialist machines.

Interesting aside - has anyone else noticed that the requirement to identify jargon that not everyone will be familiar with (UMPC was new to me) - is basically solved when google/wikipedia are about 500 msec away at any time?

UMPC (ultra-mobile PC) strikes me as something of a misnomer for the tablet. A 7"-10" flat screen, non-foldable tablet PC would have to travel in a folder, or in a bag, or somewhere that's not your pocket.

Seems like iPhone/iTouch would be a better UMPC.

I believe the mark of a UMPC is its ability to be carried and not its size. IMO the mark would be a notepad, being a writer I can find myself carrying them around when I'm going nomad (either by choice or by force: air travel) and find a writing folder to fit the needs of 'ultra-mobile' useage. If a UMPC can fit in the same size and weight ranges as a writing portfolio then it will be infinitely more accessible than any netbook.

I've travelled for days carrying my writing portfolio's by hand, and I've never felt the need to put them down and due to the dimensions and weight I can frequently have usage of both hands (sticking the portfolio under the armpit) or often both arms (by sticking it down the pants, not exactly classy and certainly not for use in business meetings, but it works).

Laptops will get phased out, in favor of inexpensive, lightweight input/display clamshells.

This is a pipe dream until we either get a better input device than the keyboard (speech?) or we no longer need to move text from our brains to our computers. Until then, people need keyboards, which means that tablets won't overtake laptops. Just my .02. Hope Apple has something revolutionary enough up their sleeve to prove me wrong.

Let's take it as granted that you and I can type faster than we can write for many kinds of inputs. Can Joe Six-Pack?

Where people are motivated to type rapidly, they do so quite effectively, especially when young and communicating with their peers.

This is a pipe dream until we either get a better input device than the keyboard

Misreading here. You can have something with the same display/input form factor as a laptop. That doesn't mean that it has to contain all of the computing, data, and display resources.

There's a large gulf in battery life between phones and laptops - there are plenty of times where I'd like to browse something on my laptop, but I don't feel like getting the charger from the other room and plugging in. So a device that gets 8-12hrs battery life under use would have a different use profile.

There are also apps like instant messengers, skype, email etc. that you'd like to be always-on. The iPhone is a one-app-at-a-time, goes-to-sleep often device that's not well suited to those applications.

Slapping in a user-facing camera for video calls would also differentiate it from the iPhone.

Putting a user-facing camera in a tablet device sounds hard. It works in laptops because they're fixed in place, and it could work in a phone because they're easy to hold with one hand. A tablet would probably be too big/heavy to hand-hold. Putting it on a flat surface wouldn't work either, unless the camera could swivel somehow, and Apple isn't really big on moving parts.

I think that there are some patents by Apple which describe cameras behind the screen. Say thay use multiple Nano 5th Gen cameras and some magic to scale/whatever.

There's always optical image stabilization. Adding electronic image stabilization plus face detection could help out; sort of a "software steadycam".

No one seems to see the true potential for disruptive change in a tablet -- that you can ditch the mouse and use all 10 fingers (or some subset thereof) to control the UI. This is a much more natural way to interact with things and might increase productivity by an order of magnitude for a large number of tasks.

Unless the tablet is big enough your hands will be covering up a big portion of the screen.

Also, unless is can partially fold, your head will either be facing down to look at the screen or if it's vertical your hands will be raised to type. Both of these things are terrible for long term use ergonomics.

I see the benefit for travelling or as a household device. But I don't think touch screen technology has shown potential for increase productivity with any full-time/professional use.

Besides, I use 10 fingers to control the UI on my macbook.

You're assuming a few things:

1. Covering up the screen is a problem.

I can see how it could work to cover the screen while manipulating but move your hands to the side when you aren't.

2. A drafting setup is terrible from an ergonomic perspective.

Is there a history of overuse injury in people that work at drafting tables?

While I think touch UI has markedly changed our interactions with computers, I still maintain that change in data entry is the missing piece of the puzzle for a true revolution. When data entry is changed from its current manifestation (physical QWERTY keyboards or some similar variant) we will have a true revolution in the way computers work themselves into our lives.

My iPod touch is all smudgey from thumb and index finger use. Now you want me to pay 2x-4x for a multitouch device and rub my whole hand all over it?

What if your hands were rubbing all over the back like this patent? http://appft1.uspto.gov/netacgi/nph-Parser?Sect1=PTO1&Se...

My guess is Apple will handle the hard part (the interactive book/magazine interface) and allow publishers to just work on publishing their content in a series of well-defined feeds to iTunes.

In my mind, the real killer app for the iTablet is rich, collaborative, social catalog shopping. Why can't they make J. Crew catalogs come to life? Where is the interactive Amazon.com catalog? Thinking further in this direction, I believe advertisements on the iTablet may go beyond traditional ads.

The most intriguing part of the iTablet is the what-if's

What if Apple were able to convince the top 25 textbook publishers that it would be a good thing to have iTablet textbooks, I think that would be a major selling point for college students.

What if they finally cracked the problem of voice recognition or handwriting recognition by doing the hard computations in the cloud?

What if the on-demand tactile keyboard patent has actually been implemented?

Popular Science's mockup done by publisher Bonnier’s R&D group with design firm BERG (hot articles)

http://www.popsci.com/technology/article/2009-12/our-vision-...

Wonderfactory's mockup of an interactive Sports Illustrated magazine on a tablet (linked statistics):

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ntyXvLnxyXk

"What if they finally cracked the problem of voice recognition or handwriting recognition by doing the hard computations in the cloud?"

I wouldn't want my tablet to require an internet connection for the UI, but in my mind an effortless handwriting interface is what a tablet computer implies. When taking notes or writing letters,drawing, or even coding is as effortless as pen on paper, with all the advantages of a digital document, that is when tablet computing will have come of age.

My guess is the tablet will run Touch OS 4 and the 4th generation iPone/Touch will inherit most of the new features as well. A multi-tasking UI, Expose, widgets. All would be welcome additions to the iPhone. You've already got the concept of a Dock so extending it to be a multi-tasking UI seems obvious. The iPhone would benefit from a user home directory that was accessible between all applications. If we have an E-Reader app for books, magazines, catalogs, etc it seems like they would extend this to the iPhone/Touch as well offering content formatted for the smaller screen seamlessly. The only area of difference I can think of would be the need for a windowing system on a 10" display. It probably wouldn't make sense to limit developers only to full-screen applications with a higher resolution display. This might be a clever way to offer iPhone/Touch application compatibility to the tablet. Instead of restricting access to these apps, or automatically scaling them full-screen, why not just run them in a window?

Rumor has it that some iPhone app devs were asked to retool their apps to allow "full screen" use by removing any assumptions about screen size. That supports the idea that the tablet runs the iPhone OS, not OS X.

You know, I could do much of my daily work from my iPhone, if only it let me run multiple, unsigned, applications and use a Bluetooth keyboard and mouse. Add an external monitor port and USB for drives and printers, and I'm happy. The iPhone 3G is already as powerful as a mid 90's desktop.

...But if all you'd be keeping is the CPU, why would this be desirable? You wouldn't even be taking your work with you in your pocket any more than you are now if it's largely stored on an external drive.

Errr, the external drive is for backup, large media, etc. Everyday files would be on the device. And, please don't say CPU unless you are actually talking about silicon - you muddle the discussion. The iPhone is a complete computer, it's just unproductive without a full size keyboard, mouse, and monitor.

You just described the MacBook Air.

But the macbook air is very big and heavy. It's even bigger and heavier than my PC laptop.

dont know if 'very big and heavy' is how i would describe the air

It certainly is compared to an ipod touch, which seems to be the appropriate comparison wrt a tablet for walk-and-compute scenarios. It is also rather unwieldy, IMHO, due to the large screen size. I prefer my Toshiba Portege; it's both lighter and smaller in the dimensions that I care about.

Yeah, I totally forgot that Apple made a tiny MacBook Air with a touch screen and detachable keyboard.

Have you ever seen someone use a clipboard? One hand, pointing to interesting things. Very convenient. Have you ever tried to use a laptop like this? There's no way to even hold them open with one hand without worrying about dropping or flexing them. Clearly a couple of people appreciated the two seconds you expended to throw a snarky comment out, but you've completely missed the point and added nothing to the conversation.

I don't think there's any question, based on rumors and on Apple's (perceived) DNA, that it'll have a high-res (OLED?) 10" screen and some kind of on-screen tactile feedback (see recent rumors & patents).

I.e., for Jobs to be extremely pleased with it, it must have at least 2-3 major hardware breakthroughs, outside of any software/content breakthroughs.

So plan for the above plus CPU/GPU real power from an Apple-designed ARM+graphics chip, plus some whizzy new (unreplaceable, of course) battery technology.

I have to imagine it'll also come with a couple of breakthrough apps like an interactive catalog (see the leaked Ikea mockup) and some kind of virtual-paper-like (or better) interactive magazine/newspaper reader.

Jobs wouldn't be happy unless it completely leapfrogged people's expectations.

I don't know whether this is what Apple's doing.

But I recommend people keep thinking this way -- if it's not what Apple's doing, then you should go do it ;-)

A tablet isn't more portable than a netbook. It's less functional, doesn't have any protection for the screen, no way to stand up the screen to a good viewing angle, no keyboard.

It's a dead duck. Don't know why this is news to anyone.

I almost agree, but it seems clear now that Apple is working intensely on just such a product. They've earned trust that they just simply don't introduce things of such large scale that are fatally flawed.

I think you're right. I also don't see the point declaring something a dead duck before it has been seen (or even announced!). Apple understand what a good consumer product is, the only not stellar product they've had in a while was the Apple TV and even that did not bomb. I definitely think it is wise to wait and see.

Personally with a laptop and a smart phone, I'm interested to see how they can make it appeal to me, but I'm willing to let them try.

Functionality depends on what tasks people are using netbooks for. It's hard to generalize but it seems most people are just browsing the Internet, watching videos, and listening to music. A tablet might be more functional for them.

CmdrTaco, is that you?

Try to consider the tablet as a modern version of the Newton MP2100. No built-in keyboard, no protection, no way to stand it up for a good viewing angle, pretty much the same complaints you give here. My newt's leather carrying case had a little fold-out bit that propped the newt up at an adjustable angle and held the keyboard in place so that I could unzip it on a tabletop, adjust the prop, and have my "laptop" ready to go. When I wanted to be more portable I could disconnect the keyboard, slide the newt out of the case, and walk away.

It is more portable than a netbook because it can do away with the keyboard. Any keyboard worth using cannot fit into a netbook. Period. By eliminating the keyboard you have more design freedom than the netbook form-factor allows.

Dead duck? I'll bet you $50 that's not only will Apple make boatloads of money from the iSlate, they'll also make boatloads of money selling newspaper and magazine subscriptions for it on iTunes.

Deal.

Tablets will be great for small children, who will interact with educational software using their right forefingers on the touchscreen.

Tablets will eventually be cheap, rugged and capable of being turned on quickly. (Perhaps a convergence with electronic paper will occur.) They can be left lying around in the play area. No chair/desk/keyboard arrangement will be required.

One upshot of this is that educational software will get much, much better than it is now.

The input method is what stops the iPhone from being a "general computer". The iPhone is read-mostly. Great for web-browsing and games, but while you can write emails/documents on it, it's... sub-optimal. Without a better input method, a tablet is just a bigger iPhone, for which smaller == better.

Therefore, this "tablet" either has a keyboard; or something comparable (or better!) - maybe that cool MS idea of seeing your fingers through the device, as you type on the back, and see ghosts on the front; or... it doesn't exist.

Steve's problem: Moore's Law means that by next June, the iPhone could be 4 times as powerful. But doing so would alienate the customer base, so current iPhones are only about 10% more powerful. Fine. But this opens a competitive opportunity... which Steve can block with a "show pony" device, that is essentially a 4 x iPhone in power, but doesn't compete directly with the iPhone. The purpose is to claim the tech + cool leadership, not to make real money.

Effective typing requires good tactile feedback, not being able to see your fingers.

Apple has filed a number of patent applications for tactile feedback on touch screens in the last year or two.

The input method is what stops the iPhone from being a "general computer". The iPhone is read-mostly. Great for web-browsing and games, but while you can write emails/documents on it, it's... sub-optimal. Without a better input method, a tablet is just a bigger iPhone, for which smaller == better.

Doesn't it have bluetooth or any other input that a keyboard can use. I'd use an iSlate and couple it with a wireless keyboard and mouse when I wanted to type a lot.

I think the tablet has plenty of uses, but it's the flaws that hold it back. We actually have a tablet at home and it was very useful on the couch and in various other roles. However there are a couple of features that are a must for such a device that I can't see being able to be provided easily:

1. I must be able to drop it from 6ft onto a hard surface and do zero damage

2. I must be able to pour a whole cup of coffee on it with zero ill effect

3. It must be able to be stolen with a cost to me of less than $50

These are the killer problems for me that make it an unsuitable thing for 'casual' use. If I have to treat it with kid gloves, watch it like a hawk whenever I put it down in public, assume a posture of paranoia about food and drink while I'm around it .... then it's just a failure at its main purpose.

How do you reconcile those being "musts" with the wild success of products that don't have them? Not even paper satisfies all of those supposed necessities.

Point taken. I would say that satisfying point 3 relieves the need to satisfy point 2 (if I can replace it for less than $50 then I can handle the possibility of coffee getting poured on it). So paper works.

... and how about the success of the iPhone? It barely passes #1...

Well, it's not trying to be a "tablet", so it's not lying around the living room. 95% of the time it's sitting in your pocket when not in use, very safe and comfortable.

I wrote a couple of blog posts on this, but here's the summary:

My secret hope is that it has an eInk screen that slides down to reveal an LCD, at which point the eInk acts as a reconfigurable keyboard for netbook-style interaction.

I'm also wondering if it might instead have a couple of 7" screens arranged Nintendo DS-style (that would add up to 10"). You could, in a pinch, run unmodified iPhone apps on one screen with a keyboard and/or dock on the lower screen. And it would make a great two-page-at-a-time eBook reader.

I also think mobile videoconferencing might be a feature that's given a major push, since MacBooks don't have built-in mobile data connections and iPhones don't have user-facing cameras.

Apple tends to shy away from kludgy solutions. Which is why I don’t think you will ever see something like you described from Apple.

(Not to say that your imagined product wouldn’t be nice to have for at least some people. It’s just not in Apple’s DNA to do something like that. Just one example: The Nintendo DS is great product but also something you would never ever – ever! – see from Apple.)

All-things-Apple-Disclaimer: I could be horribly wrong.

The big question for the tablet is "What niche does this fill?" To be successful, it's going to have a handful of pre-packaged use cases (the iPhone/Touch had web browsing, mail, mp3 player, calling) and share the iPhone's support for apps.

The niche question gets answered by 3rd party developers who are sure to come up with more brilliant ideas for use cases than Apple's engineers will on their own. Already in the comments here people have stated the niche they'd like this to fill for them. The draw for a tablet arises from the combination of nice form factor + portability + the apps that nails my niche.

Maybe I really should pick up some Cocoa...

Compared to some of the other frenzied write ups about the coming of the great white tablet, I liked this one. It felt like an honest and intelligent rumination with an undercurrent of anticipation about the device. Good job.

Surprisingly, it sounds like some of the guesses aren't too far off from the Microsoft Courier concept. I have to say, some of the ideas in that concept of a persistent, everyday computing device sound compelling. Something half way between an interactive moleskin and a kindle.

http://gizmodo.com/5365299/courier-first-details-of-microsof...

I wouldn't be surprised to see apple co-opt some of the interactions of a physical notebook. It would fold up in fit in a small messenger bag pretty easily.

Also, it would be a throwback to how people worked before laptops. If you've ever been in a meeting where 20 people sit around a conference table and talk over their laptops, you'll recognize that as much value the laptop brings to the meeting; it's distracting having a physical object that's 11" tall blocking your body and attention.

I liked it better when people showed up to meetings with paper notebooks.

My view: a newspaper reader. Everyone reads the news. No one reads books anymore. Expect a content deal so that I can get major newspapers, in a pleasant format, and read them on my couch when I come home.

Plus a web browser, video player. That should be good enough to make a very interesting product.

Pointing out issues with the current iPhone software that wouldn't work as is on a larger screen is calling Apple engineers stupid. I don't think they are.

No one reads books anymore.

Explain why libraries are still operational, please.

Free wi-fi/internet access?

Made me laugh, but McDonald's has that plus food.

McDonald's does not provide computers, though. People who patronize the library for internet access the most are those who don't own a computer at all. In other countries, this role is often filled by internet cafes, but they never really caught on in the U.S.

Excellent point. I suppose books could be kept in libraries for atmosphere, even if nobody used them. Funny how a sensible point, when approached from the wrong angle, can be rendered nonsensical.

Do you have evidence that they are?

I suspect that libraries are filling important niches today that are extremely hard to replace with technology, but their use for some purposes such as repositories for reference information is all but obsolete.

We use our local library intensely - but only to borrow about 20 books a week for our 2 year old. Otherwise I would not have gone there in 10 years.

The argument is a relative one. "No one reads books" is like saying "everyone watches TV". Neither are true, but practically, they are close enough to the truth to draw reasonably accurate conclusions from.

For instance, you can conclude that Apple wouldn't release a dedicated reading device (as Amazon has) because the market is relatively small, being the union of "people who read", "people willing to read on an electronic device", and "people who can afford a dedicated reading electronic device", as opposed to (say) "people who use the web" and "people who listen to music or watch tv or watch movies". (I don't agree with the parent post, incidentally, as people who read the news as opposed to watching the news are a dying breed.)

As for libraries--they're quite obviously an argument against a reading device.

Apple has been in talks with all the major newspaper and magazine publishers to sell subscriptions via iTunes. Your iSlate will download the latest edition while you sleep via WiFi or the cellphone network - ready to read when you wake up every morning. Apple is building a huge data center to deal with all this data.

Apple will try to do for print media what it did for music.

Sorry for the meta-comment but why does this article has so many votes?

I read the whole thing and it's nothing more than pure speculation and "analisys." What I took from it is that The Apple Tablet will be a full working device like the many tablets we've seen since the beginning of the decade.

Is the author someone famous in the Valley or something?

This is the time of year when people really like speculations and predictions, especially when they sound plausible and/or reasonable.

I agree with that, but number one article for most of the day? It seems a bit exaggerated to me. This is macrumors material, in my opinion.

The author's analysis is top-notch because he actually understands what the newest incarnation of Apple is about, unlike most of the people who write about Apple.

He's only been writing the piece since September: http://twitter.com/gruber/status/7250169522. Does most speculation about Apple's next move strike you as something that much care was put into?

http://thingsjohngruberiswrongabout.tumblr.com

Anonymous hate speech is tedious. It's not even any good, he just reads like a Slashdotter with nerd rage.

Edit: it's also already a failed site. Its name pretends to a comprehensiveness that is belied by the meager three dates on which he's posted, the latest of which is in September, 2009. Gruber posts something almost daily-surely he's been wrong about something since September?

1. no need to post every week to point out that Gruber is wrong (a lot). you may also head to Fake Steve Jobs and find out the same almost every week.

2. don't see any hate speech

The whole thing is a hate site. It exists for the sole purpose of one man's axe-grinding against another. This is a low-value pursuit and a complete waste of time. As for specific "hate speech" that I disliked, try the comment about a "cold dick in the mouth", or the one about how Gruber "has a hard-on" for Apple. Poor writing, pointless mission, and just an all-around waste.

I think the author's writing skills are top-notch. The article was entertaining to read from the beginning to the end and he looks like a smart guy with great ideas.

That said, I don't think his analysis is that great in this particular article, that's why I quoted the word analysis in my original post. Like I said, this feels like pure speculation backed by intuition on the author's part. His analysis doesn't use any sort of sales numbers or statistics to show where the market is heading and why Apply would take certain decisions.

this feels like pure speculation backed by intuition on the author's part

Yes, it feels like that. Since he explicitly says as much in the article. Few other Apple pundits are so self-aware.

What sales numbers or statistics would have helped you predict what the iPhone would be like before you knew anything about it other than "Apple is working on some kind of a phone"? All we know today is that Apple is working on some kind of a tablet. There are no relevant facts or sales numbers that would have improved the article. Whatever market Apple creates or redefines with the new device will look completely different afterwards.

Yes, this.

Cringely opined some years ago that tech companies evolve through three categories (or stages of development): technology driven, sales driven, and marketing driven.

There's an assumption in this ontology: that growth and evolution of a tech company is predicated on new technology.

The new (post-1997, Jobs II) Apple breaks this rule. Apple is design driven, at a level that makes more sense to folks with a Fine Art degree than a CS background. (The reason for their success? Lots of folks with an aesthetic background like this stuff and will pay extra for it.) They're seeking a better user experience, vertically integrated at all levels with their web ecosystem.

Gruber -- who's been tracking apple for something like 20 years -- gets this. J. Random Gizmo columnist doesn't.

I think you reached a different conclusion than others reading the article which may explain the confusion. What I took away here is Gruber thinks it will be unlike other tablets that have been released due to Apple's strong focus on practical usability and their ability to tightly integrate their hardware & software platforms unlike other companies who have attempted tablet computers. As for the authors credentials -- he makes a living covering Apple. He has an excellent understanding of Apple's corporate culture and a good feel for how people are using technology in their everyday lives.

Yes, I understand your point and his point. But in some parts he talks as if we were flooded by one-purpose devices like Amazon's kindle, and Apple was going to be our savior by introducing a general-purpose tablet. And that's not the case, general-purpose tablets have been the norm for most of the decade.

Honestly, you and I both reached the same conclusion: Apple's tablet will be better thanks to Apple's great execution. I just don't understand why the article gets son many up-votes. We should expect those results from Apple based on what they've done with their other products.

as i write this, your comment already has three other replies, two of which i think are pretty good. but i can't help but put my own two cents in.

do you remember the industry's response to the iphone when it was first announced? most observers thought it was the dumbest thing they'd ever seen. the general reaction was that apple was suffering from hubris of monstrous proportions to think they could enter into this market, with no history or reputation, and succeed. i didn't know whether it would be successful or not, but i knew i wanted one, real bad. it turns out that there were a lot of us.

apple succeeded with the iphone far beyond anyone's wildest expectations. probably moreso than jobs himself thought possible. they didn't just make a successful product, they completely upended the mobile phone business. it will never be the same again.

with any luck, we are now entering another period exactly like that one. apple is about to release a product that most people think couldn't possibly be successful. no one is willing to come out and say it will be a huge flop this time, because apple is now on a decade-long winning streak. betting against them is foolish.

apple's tablet has the potential to shake up the computer business in the same way that the iphone shook up the mobile phone business. if it does, this could be the beginning of a very exciting time indeed.

As far as I can remember, the industry's response to the iPhone was very favorable. They had basically sold thousands of units before they even announced the product. People were asking for the iPhone long before it was confirmed.

The only ones in denial were competitors. Users and bloggers loved it since day one, and by day one I mean the day Apple announced it, not the day Apple released it.

Evidently you are posting from some universe alternate to the rest of us. In our universe the iPhone was spectacularly well received.

man, are you guys reading the same blogosphere i am? or how about even earlier posts on this same blog? how about all those 'claim chowder' posts gruber has made, quoting this or that industry person, claiming that the iphone won't go anywhere?

generally speaking, the tech press is deeply suspicious of everything apple does. most of their articles are some variation of "gosh, apple sure doesn't act very much like microsoft. why is that? of course they also make computers, so they should act like a combination of microsoft and dell. if they did, they sure would be a lot more successful."

Much of the tech press are like the old saying about teachers, "If you can't do, teach." Arrington is a case in point.

If the people in the tech press could invent (or understand invention when they saw it), they wouldn't work for the tech press.

The author is John Gruber, who has been writing about all things Apple for a while now. Although he claims he doesn't know anything about the tablet, I have a feeling a lot of his information comes directly from inside Apple.

Here's the key technical innovation which I think would open the door to really cool tablets, apple or otherwise. Fast refresh rate e-ink style displays (presumably with some manner of touch and/or stylus sensitive screen). That combination would (at least for me) make it the perfect reading and note taking tool.

Even with such innovation, it would never match the iPhone touchscreen and I don't think Apple is willing to compromise like that. If Apple do think in this direction, I think it's more practical for them to have 2 equal size screens, an iPhone-like touchscreen for videos, games, and dynamic web browsing and an e-ink screen for reading books, magazine, and static web contents. The touchscreen can be used to control and navigate the e-ink screen (think of your laptop monitor being the eink screen and the keyboard being the touchscreen). It can be folded in like a laptop to protect the 2 screens or fold out (with both screens on the outside) when in used.

Now that is one way Apple will convince me to drop updwards of $600 despite owning a Macbook, iPhone, and a Kindle.

Two equal size screens is not Apple though. They are all about simplicity and being directly obvious. They've even managed to work it so their laptops just have one big surface for a trackpad. They never even released a mouse that had two physical buttons.

It might work if they can sandwhich the two screens together, so it just looks like one screen that changes modes.

The keyboard problem is a non-issue. On the go, you use the screen. When you place it in its nice shiny iPhone-esque dock at home, the screen is upright and a wireless keyboard and mouse can be used and it looks and feels like a PC.

In a mobile scenario you could have something like an empty laptop shell as a case. No display, no guts. The tablet docks into the top half and the bottom half is a keyboard. Probably wouldn't be any larger than today's MacBook.

There's a better reason why Apple won't build an e-reader. Kindle already owns the high end - it's the ipod of ebooks - and Apple has no interest in playing in a market where all the pressure is to simplify and undercut.

So how do you explain the iPhone? The smart phone market was well and truly catered for when Apple entered there. Apple's primary method of business is to price themselves in a tier above everyone else but to provide a (perceived or real) value proposition that makes people buy it anyway.

They could still cut in on top. Which they can't on e-readers. Kindle is already pushing the technology to its present day limits.

Sure ... but I think Apple has a way of redefining the "high end". Smart phones were already considered expensive when Apple launched the iPhone.

The problem is e-ink. Right now it's grody grey, monochrome, and has a 1/2 second refresh time. Apple can't work with that.

My bet is that it has a PixelQi screen- eink mode that does everything the Kindle does, but better, and then a normal mode for web browsing, email, media content, and applications.

That'd be slick, the screen was the best thing about the XO. I gather that the tech has been further improved--the XO in color mode isn't so good (but killer in eBook mode).

Nope, it's normal screens.

http://www.appleinsider.com/articles/09/12/28/apple_orders_1...

Missed that- damn. So much for futuristic magic screens being coupled with a futuristic magic device.

Let's be honest... no one really knows.

The Taiwan papers aren't known for their accuracy when it comes to parts orders for Apple. Also, who's not to say that Pixel Qi is licensing their IP to Foxconn for the actual glass production?

Yeah, Pixel Qi is fabless, so any production is done by someone else.

It'll be fold-up like a netbook, same size, no keyboard or mouse, but with 2 screens, both touch-sensitive, but one with a texture you can feel, so you can type on it easily. When you unfold it 180 degrees and tilt it around, it'll act like one big screen you can watch movies on.

The tablet is going to be an iPhone and iPod Touch accessory. That's what will sell this thing, and that's what they will have in there. A tight integration with the tens of millions of mobile devices out there.

I figure it will be the other way around, with the phone and ipod accessories to the tablet.

After all a tablet can pack just a bit more punch than either a phone or an mp3 player. Use it as a speakerphone or with a headset and you could lose the phone entirely if you're taking the tablet with you.

Same interface, bigger screen.

Think iphone on steroids.

It will be a way to get your pics off your iphone. Play your music loud. Transfer files to iPhone. You drop it on your desk, 'dock' your phone by dropping it on it and there you go.

Just a traffic-sucking piece of keyword-stuffed blah-blah-blah. Good SEO.

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