* it is a dynamical system, not a random one, and theoretically can become predictable in the short term
* economic policy is very politicized and Central Banks do unreasonable things on purpose (like keeping artificially low interest rates).
So, combine the economic imbalances waiting to be resolved (like negative savings rate etc.) and a market crash that you see taking place right now - and you can predict start of a recession quite well.
If true, you should be a trillionaire.
Also, there's a difference between knowing something and being willing to risk losing a ton of money if you're wrong.
To support pg's point, unless your product takes a couple of lazy weekends to slap together, there's really no way of knowing where the economy will be once you're ready to go live.
And for that matter, weren't a number of successful dot-coms founded in the middle of the 2001-2002 recession? It seems to me that if you've spotted a good opportunity, the gyrations of industrial giants shouldn't really matter much to you. Even if your customers are businesses, your product should offer better value for less money than something they're already using, recession or no. A recession will, if anything, make them more receptive to such a product.
I agree with all those saying recession isn't a big concern.