About 75% of points get redeemed (since people who get a lot would tend to use them), so the total cost of a ticket if everything was redeemed might be around $64/.75 = $85 USD.
Seems like tickets range in cost, but 50k seems a fair estimate of the average flight (probably a bit high). So $0.0017 per mile incremental cost (higher opportunity cost).
This INCLUDES all the people gaming the system right now, though. And Avis is paying the airline for the points, so the airline wins no matter what happens — it's a billion+ dollar profit center for them. Avis might be a bit more annoyed.
Well, they usually have corporate sales reps hammering out the particulars for big promos like this. Avis is certainly paying the airlines something, but as the size of the buy is enormous, they're going to get somewhere south of the wholesale price on the miles. Both parties therefore are eating the cost of the abusers.
I booked a ~£400 return flight from the UK to the States just a few weeks ago and the airline claim to be only getting 40% of that. I'm not sure where fuel fits in.
The price difference was all tax - and lots of it!
It makes one wonder what marginal meetings are _not_ taking place because the 50% taxation (the fault of both port operating companies, state governments, the U.S. federal government, and their equivalents on the European side) makes it infeasible for those who are ever so slightly less fortunate.
Imagine the cost of travel -- and of interpersonal connection -- being halved because these taxes went away. Who's to say it's better to hire another Social Security Administration Vice President than it is to enable a CRISPR researcher at Stanford to meet a pharma exec in London?
(You might think that government would grind to a halt. . . but of course government only spends a paltry percentage of its winnings on things like transportation.[1])