If you are truly determined, and will stop at nothing to build a successful startup, then I strongly encourage you to apply for YC and don't worry about your chances or treating it as a lottery.
Yes, it sucks not getting into YC. I know, I didn't get in the first time I applied, it felt shitty for a day, but then I just went on with building my startup regardless. I applied again the following year and this time we did get in. I didn't give up or think about our chances once.
Determination is not something you say, it's something you do, especially when the odds are stacked up against you. So if you are determined, apply for YC, don't over think it, then keep moving forward with your world domination plans.
More here: http://imars.posthaven.com/so-you-didnt-get-into-yc-now-what