On doing things other people can't
pathsensitive.blogspot.com
pathsensitive.blogspot.com
I am a bit older than the author and have had some experience with this strategy. One specific example is creating an approach to latent semantic analysis that worked really well back in 2000. My partner and I couldn't get people with money to pay attention. We ended up putting it on the shelf and moving on. Around 2007 semantic gets really hot with VCs but we are each engaged elsewhere.
My point is that this strategy can suffer from being too early. You may eventually be shown to be right but you were too early or not persuasive enough to gain the benefit from the insight and work.
Still, I find myself much more intrigued with creating something new, or exploring the leading edge of some field than just grinding out the next iteration of the same old thing.
Maybe one day I will get the timing just right.
But there's also the curious problem of expensive and difficult to produce technology that doesn't have a market large enough to sustain it. Example, the crop of now dead or dying enterprise entity extraction companies. It turns out it's expensive to build those systems, but the market isn't that large, which forces the price up to try and survive, which then further reduces the market and so on into a death spiral. Nowadays people just try to get by with OpenNLP...which was easily bested by tools like ThingFinder and ClearForest a decade earlier.
But I would suggest the "occasionally used" is as much a signal as anything - I'm wondering how to discover that signal.
Which has interesting implications about the extent to which patents help or hinder innovation…
When I read, "When I was in 9th grade...and Googled..." I realized why the article sounded like it did.
Maybe something similar applies to adult (or almost-adult) life?
Edit: Now if you were to narrow the question to: What age of adviser is best for assisting a young high school grad with their transition to college life such a comparison might be more meaningful.
I think it's about relevant experience at your level.
The luck applies to those who are already doing everything right. The other people are "failures" because you can pinpoint where they were deficient. When I think about luck and success I picture a pool of highly educated, ambitious, type A people. Why does one of them become an industry tycoon billionaire while the others become merely wealthy? You can manufacture luck for the latter but not the former.
"manufacture the luck"
If you can manufacture it, it isn't luck, period. And you need some luck to succeed.Your broader point stands though, you miss 100% of the opportunities you didn't show up for.
Luck is when things fall out better than you could reasonably have expected. Opportunities are something you can work for.
There is a pernicious lie we tell, culturally, about success as if it were a matter of worth and effort. The truth is most success has a strong element of luck, and many failures as well.
There is nothing lucky about merely resampling until in expectation you should see the result you want. That's just doing the work.
That's just showing up.
The population as a whole that is attempting to determine the 'next big thing (tm)' does the majority of the sampling (with a small amount of resampling from those who manage a second or third try). We then read the stories of the successful outcomes and call it luck.
I'm not sure I agree with the statement.
It is possible that a certain outcome is attached to a certain action, but the link between the two is sufficiently hidden that the outcome seems like luck. Is it luck? It surely looks like luck, and behaves like luck. I would call it luck.
But of course for some people, that link might be a little more obvious. Those are the people that can "manufacture luck."
I would like to note, it's usually not a single action that generate luck, it's a set of complex actions, which is why it's hard to manufacture, and stays luck.
Unique technical skills generally aren't a great path to riches. The most uniquely skilled people in the world might be famous but they often aren't rich or at least not extremely rich.
Some combination of knowing what people want, being able to (directly or indirectly) organize people to create the thing, and knowing rich people willing to invest in your plan for doing it, is pretty the formula for most people gaining wealth in this society. There are other formulas but this is by far the most common and why fight the average if you're after success?
The basic idea is that there are a lot of things that are actually a lot more reasonable than they appear because in reality they build from a simple beginning that compounds through practice and persistence, just like anything else, but the reviewer never sees that. It's very effective when you see it.
That is, I think after asking the people about the explicit steps involved, I would understand better, but I wouldn't be less impressed.
MAKE A STARTUP THAT YOU ARE GOING TO FLIP
Once you have the mindset that you are going to exit in a few years instead of building the next google, you'll project many of the attitudes investors are looking for. Even if you have a huge idea that you're working on, don't bring it up when you talk about your smaller, flippable idea. Even better if technology or user base you developed in the "world changing" project can be used to give the flippable idea a big boost, making it seem to be making amazing leaps (which is actually true). Give away as much equity as you need to the most well-connected people who want to get involved. Network your way using the startup as the reason for everyone to cluster around. In short, build your own little organization, and attract people by selling to them exactly what they are looking for. Don't be greedy with the equity because your goal isn't to make huge amounts of money on the exit (even though you could every well exit with millions or a golden parachute) but to open doors and make connections.
Many startups eschew this route because they feel they must focus only on their world-changing business, and as a result, they miss all the low hanging fruit they could be getting.
After all, if so many people are actively looking for such entrepreneurs and screening for an "early exit" mindset, why not sell to them what they're looking for, and use it as a vehicle to get further in life?
http://calnewport.com/blog/2010/03/26/how-to-get-into-stanfo...
I'd be interesting in hearing about other people doing this sort of thing.
That said, people who choose to take short cuts (cheating, plagiarizing, or other work avoidance strategies) always annoy me, especially when they are successful at it. So where do you draw the line? Do you try to get into Harvard on your merits or do you have your Dad's company endow a chair there? The latter is certainly something not everyone can do.
Really like the outside activity ideas though, I had no idea that becoming a radio amateur in High School would have looked so favorable on my college applications. I just did it so that I could talk to people across the country for free (long distance telephone calls were expensive then :-)
It was only after water infrastructure improved, specially filters in water, that people could drink water without issues.
When you travel the world, the most important thing you need is water purification tablets. I have traveled lots of countries and never got sick, but I have seen friends almost die because of drinking what they should not.
Things change over time.
#2. This:
> what you get are communities that collectively have and share the best ways of doing things. So the way to get good at something is to simply find the right community and join it.
Take HN. If you can keep up with the conversations on here, you're pretty much guaranteed to be at the bleeding edge of IT. And the further away from SV the better probably... As HN literacy decreases per capita, you'll be further ahead of the local curve.
The only minimum is English, an internet connection, and a burning desire to build/code.
> The problem is the finding: every community wants to seem like them.
My heart goes out to those still stranded on /. (or rather, what has become of it). Why HN? The sparsity of the comments was misleading at first (though I was quickly enlightened as to why), but I am still pleasantly surprised every single day at the rate of which the original authors comment here. Sure, maybe they see their logs and hop on for the first time, but when we're not talking about other people, we are the people, and I find that to be a breath of fresh air. Plus, no ads. HN, I salute you.
Well, except for the constant posts about YC classes & post postings for YC companies. Getting first crack at pretty much any startup and getting employees for those startups is worth way more than any ads that would ever be posted here.
That's... disturbing.
Back in the day, I remember seeing the Japanese ./ site and being disappointed by the quality of submissions and comments compared to the English site. Now I look at HN and feel the same about /. And if anything comes along that makes me feel that way about HN, that is where I'll be... But until then!
No one community is at the center of things. Ever. It's not how the world works. The best you can get, as leading edges go, is little glimpses of a new idea in a limited space, before it's had any chance to diffuse. Media aggregators come much, much later in the lifecycle. For a certain slice of tech, HN may be professionally necessary - but otherwise it's not that advantageous.
But I don't think you realize just how hard it is for a normal person to randomly hop on an IRC channel and be bathed and be able to keep up with it and make friends. If HN feels redundant then consider that serious validation of your competence and the league you are in. I tip my hat.
- Meditation: nowadays it seems a bit more mainstream, but I still think doing Vipassana or other body-scan related techniques is a source of power. The idea of emotional intelligence felt like a concept, but when I actually felt a tangible improvement, I understood the concept intuitively.
- Mental simulation: this is more a generalization of meditation. But if psychology shows you can learn to play piano just by vividly imagining it, it has merit, since you can now learn it anywhere.
- Specialized communities: Hacker News is a prime example. It's the first time I learned so much about tech (despite studying CS). Evaluating a community is a matter of its own though.
- Interdisciplinarity: this is more domain specific but it works for me in uni. I learned my academic writing thanks to psychology classes and learned LaTeX from CS. Combining the two allowed me to improve my writing in ways I never imagined. A natural consequence is that I get higher grades during interdisciplinary courses (e.g. serious games).
- Geo-arbitrage: we all know this one. Living in a cheap country (e.g. somewhere in Asia), while working for an expensive country such as the US.
- Good peer to peer teaching: I owe all most of my dating skills to one person who taught me after years of small successes and reading a lot on the topic. Finding the right teacher is the hard part.
- Six degrees to separation: I tried it once as an experiment. I didn't reach the person I wanted to reach, I was impatient as well. But I got a lot further than I thought. The hardest thing is that you don't know the full topology. So my best guestimate was to contact the hubs (people that know many people), and Facebook will show you who your hubs are :)
While I've never done this type of thinking before, here it goes. My bets for new sources of power: - Machine learning: I think there are enough applications that haven't been explored yet. I mean small projects. For example, machine learning algorithms to write awesome music to MIDI and then you adapt it to your taste as a music producer.
- Game development for the Rift: it's not massively adopted yet and game-design approaches need to be reinvented a bit.
Anyone who wants to share or give feedback? :)
-----
Oh, you're a talented young engineer? You can write a program in 3 minutes to approximate nearly any integral? Fuck you, we don't even teach programming in high school. In fact, such witchcraft is prohibited here. Instead, spend half a year of your life memorizing these integration tricks because we're definitely still in the 19th century. Speaking of which, don't forget that you have a big history project due tomorrow because you will no doubt be required to distinguish between Greek column types when you're in the real world!
Oh, you have a natural gift for writing? Too bad you don't know what a gerund or past participle is! You must be dumb! Let me tell you: In the real world, it is imperative that you be capable of diagramming sentences. Yes, you deserve to fail grammar tests even if your grammar is impeccable in practice.
Oh, you taught yourself conceptual aerospace engineering in elementary school? Fuck you and your creativity and advanced knowledge; you must follow directions to the point in engineering class to build this cardboard rocket! Engineering is all about following directions!
-----
Yeah, I've seen some nasty things in school.
I hope I see the day when students don't feel pressured to learn things just to make the grade or "keep up" with the fierce competition. Maybe young people will increasingly realize that competing to be #1 in the Great Conformity Competition is really dumb because it actually makes them less competitive where GPAs don't matter.
Imagine where you'd be if you were given the chance and encouragement to really focus on the things you loved while growing up. Young people should not be led to believe that there is one correct path for everyone.
Oh yes, I forgot about the 3 minute part. You didn't write anything from scratch. You just at best googled for a math library and hooked it up to your hello world program... if not downloaded the whole damned thing from easy-Aplus.com!!!
Nevermind, rest assured that grownups never had to learn anything in order to build the infrastructure you happen to enjoy today.
I only used the word "trick" because you did. There are NO TRICKS in math. If a practitioner uses the word "trick" its because he's being facetious or joking. The algebraic manipulations which you find challenging are absolutely essential to master inside-out to be able to follow more advanced mathematical reasoning. You'll see these "tricks" again in a profoundly more generalized form if you study Algebra again (abstract algebra, that is).
There is utility in doing algebra on your computer when you're dealing with literally pages for one expression. That is done to save time and reduce the probability of errors-- and NOT because you "can't" otherwise do it. Even then, you'll need to manually sanity-check the work using skills you learned doing all those tedious problem sets.
EDIT: When I was in high school there were a few teachers that frowned upon memorizing things. They would give low grades to such students. Then halfway my education I went to live in another country where memorization was the accepted learning method and I've felt the difference greatly so I know what you're talking about.
I'll just say that a good general knowledge of various topics will greatly help in life in a variety of situations. What you get taught in high school after all is the basics of the basics. If you don't know what a gerund is... sorry, you're an ignorant, and I don't care how many stars your JavaScript library has on github.
E.g.: It's important to know that Greek history is divided in 3 pretty different big main periods and each of them had different column designs but after that knowing the details of those designs is pretty unimportant.
A gerund is a pretty easy and obvious notion. Personally I just know it without even thinking about it probably because I was taught about it at a pretty young age. To me someone not knowing what gerund is is like someone e not knowing what multiplication is.
Honestly anything before college is a pretty young age and 99% of people aren't sure (or shouldn't be sure) about what they're going to do with their life because they don't know enough about it yet. Even that 1% will benefit out of basic knowledge in the long run because that's what makes you a man with basic culture that can discuss on a range of topics.
We humans are not computer programs specialized on solving a single task. High school makes us more like an OS, providing the features to solve (hopefully) any kind of problem we encounter in life.
[1] http://pathsensitive.blogspot.com/2015/05/i-like-doing-thing...
This would sound great if it didn't also reveal the horrifying nature of only thinking about yourself (or, in the case of a parent, your child) and being the best. You completely disregard everyone else, and totally ignore what capitalizing ("exploiting" in his words) on that privilege does to others.
But maybe I missed something.
:> everythings ok now
Achievement does NOT necessarily require playing a nasty, zero-sum competitive game.
But there's still nothing glamorous about not having enough money to cover basic expenses, unexpected emergencies, to live in a comfortable place, to be able to afford the transportation that will get you to your passions.
I would not be worse off if I had abandoned some of my dreams a little earlier and pursued money for a little while longer.
Note: I could give a shit about getting into an elite school (I have 1 semester at UIC, and nothing else), and a hack to do that wasn't my takeaway from the post.