They need to break out of that stagnation soon or they risk being completely obsolete and not noticing until it is too late. I for one don't have flash installed (or enabled in cases where it is present as a built-in) in my usual browsers (and that isn't going to change: we are long past the point where anything a Flash app does is replicated by something else so if it is a choice of "use flash or don't be able to use X" I'll skip X and use Y instead of re-enabling Flash). I'm not the only one I know with this attitude and while we are in a minority currently that will change over time, and probably not a long time.

> It seems important they get an official EOL from Adobe with an upgrade path (most likely to html5).

Waiting for that would be a bad business decision on their part. It is obvious where things are going (or at least where they are not going or where they are no going to stay) so waiting for Adobe to tell them the facts is silly. They should be researching alternatives now if they have not done so already and making migration plans.