Hacker News Reader

Comment by sama | Hacker News Reader

One of those two things.

"Also, I think the market crash is starting. Im making one last trade (altera) which should go up 10% and then I am shorting sales force."

- Me, to my father, five days ago. The altera trade is not going well, so far... I may not have picked the right stock to ride the wave with.

What on earth made you think that Altera were going to be an exception here?

I don't think OP meant it would be an exception. I think OP meant that he was going in for one more trade before the entire market goes down.

Intel announced back in June that they were acquiring Altera for $54 a share, while the stock is currently at $48.17

I recently decided to hold on to my stock (Netflix, Adobe and Philips) for a while, since advice was still mostly positive. I guess I should check how that's going.

Edit: I did. Fuck.

Though in all honesty, I don't see why a correction in China would seriously hurt the profits of Netflix. Maybe I should buy more.

I could see Netflix doing better in a recession, a few bucks a month for the entertainment it provides vs the cost of going to the cinema (two good cinema tickets here costs ~4 months netflix subscription).

Perhaps a more accurate description: provides entertainment vs the cost of a cable subscription. Plus, recession or not, they are riding the wave of chord cutting nicely.

One of them will be a rich master trader.

The other will have his hand cut by a falling knife.

Oops, did I just take sides?

Over a long enough timeline, the stocks will probably recover. Buying stocks will probably lose short term. Probably gain long term.

Over a long enough timeline shares have always gained.

"Over a long enough timeout shares have always gained" Not so sure if you take inflation and Survival bias into consideration https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Survivorship_bias#In_finance_a...

If you follow an index, that doesn't cause an issue. You are also forgetting stocks also pay dividends, so it doesn't have go up either.

"On a long enough timeline the survival rate for everyone drops to 0."

> Over a long enough timeline shares have always gained.

Except in Germany and Japan after WWII

Actually you would think this would be true, but because of the cost of holding a position you can lose money if the market stays flat (not likely given the current VIX).

It depends on your timeline.

Doesn’t everything :)

Volatility can make even a bad decision right if you can wait, but a flat market will turn all trades bad.

> Volatility can make even a bad decision right if you can wait, but a flat market will turn all trades bad.

Just write options..

Yes the old strategy of picking up pennies from in front of the steam roller. All goes well until you get attacked by a black swan :)

Write options that are barely out of the money, buy options that are way out of the money. That'll limit the size of the pennies you pick up, but can also limit the size of the bulldozer.

Dividends say otherwise.

This is not really a trading strategy. The dividend yield for most stocks is so low that you won't make money off holding stocks for dividends alone.

The former.

Reply on news.ycombinator.com