China factory activity shrinks to six and a half year low as orders tumble
reuters.com
reuters.com
Second, China's bigger problem is that they lack sex, and that's not just a dig at the one child policy. Sure, they have some lovely trains and airports, but nobody says "I buy Vietnamese so someday I can buy Chinese." They say "I buy Chinese so someday I can buy German."
China is simply not an aspirational brand. They have plenty of businesses that mirror the West (Weibo for Twitter, Renren for Facebook, etc) which are highly popular among Chinese (because the government often gives them no other choice), but are little more than an eye-roll outside the Middle Kingdom.
Classic middle income trap scenario: too rich to compete by making things cheap, too lame to compete on the high end. I would be interested in hearing a rebuttal, but so far I have been unable to find one, on HN or otherwise.
Edit: Downvoting without giving an explanation doesn't count as a rebuttal. In fact I'm not entirely sure what effect it is supposed to have, aside from making you feel less insecure about your own opinions ;)
However, the question becomes which kind of product. I'm reminded of a popular "China's Got Talent"-style of show that included audience participation and voting, which the government shut down because it made them uncomfortable with the idea of regular people getting used to democracy. That's the kind of thing that chills cultural development, especially when an entrepreneur has to consider the possibility that huge sums of time and money spent on their passion could be flushed down the toilet because the communist party disapproves.
This would not be as much an issue for engineering products, and few I think dispute China's capability to innovate. I just don't believe global consumers will choose China over USA, Europe, Japan, South Korea, and so on.
That seems pretty short-sighted. Maybe you're quite young, but 15 years ago korean cars had a shocking reputation, and japanese 20 years before that. 10 years ago I wouldn't have even considered a crappy cheap korean television, now LG and samsung are tier-1 brands. And subjectively the label "made in china" doesn't have the negative ring it seemed to just a few years ago.
Consumer sentiment can change pretty fast.
That being said I'm not sure they'll be able to muster the same cultural - ahem - revolution. For example, South Korea makes LG TVs to watch their country's popular soap operas on.
When I studied Chinese I streamed mainland TV to get accustomed to the tones, and after a while I felt a reminder of "1984" about the dull propaganda books and movies that were remade by the party every year with different names. Basically, it sucked.
China has been well-aware of this impending trend, I'm sure they can make similar shifts. I think it's happening to some degree - I'm already impressed with some Chinese companies, like Xiaomi.
Regarding manufacturing quality and the similar trajectory, you are correct. But in the 80s and onward it wasn't just electronics we were getting from Japan. Anime, jpop, ramen, sushi, all of these cultural products - which couldn't quite be emblematic of anywhere else - made Japan a soft power juggernaut.
Can China do the same? I'm not sure. Part of being cool is the ability to say "fuck the man," whoever that is and in whatever way, but dissent is too tightly managed for such an entity to be both globally enjoyed and accepted by the state, lest others start asking questions about the way things are run.
The Japanese language is also not super hard for the West to pronounce, and it is even possible to learn it. The writing system(s) are a bit confusing, but we can pronounce it. Contrast that with Chinese, and especially Chinese music. Yeah, no. The operative question: Is there any reason to learn Chinese apart from making money?
Taiwan, on the other hand, is an interesting place. Really good food, and it's going to experience a major boom as a travel food destination in the near future.
But Japanese being easier to learn than Chinese? I'm in shock: I've always found Chinese to be simple and Japanese to be mind-bogglingly impenetrable, even if I like it more.
Ah, and for culture, those wonderful crazy animators in Taiwan have made a very widespread impact, at least in the US: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Next_Media_Animation
Also, I would personally never consciously buy any technology designed and built by a Chinese company because even with all of the NSA scandals in the US I still trust my information more on an Android or IOS device than a Chinese Android variant.
Other stuff of course took longer, e.g. their '70s cars weren't too hot, I got a ride in a grad student's Toyoda Corolla in the summer of 1977, but they soon started selling well, "Datsun, we are driven", my sister bought a used one in the early '80s and it was much better although still had a ways to go (and it's hard to imagine how much brand equity Nissan threw away when they re-badged in the early-mid '80s, their out of pocket costs were well over a billion in 2015 dollars).
I guess I'm saying that to those of us paying attention in the '70s, we were willing to believe Japan would get there in things like cars, and of course it didn't hurt how well they engineered and built things like the Mitsubishi Zero WWII fighter, WWII still had a big effect on people's minds in the '70s.
Hmmm, Sony was not, at least initially, one of the anointed MITI companies, Morita (and it says something that I don't have to mention his given name) had to convince the powers that be, MITI very possibly, to get the authority for $10,000 ($90K in 2015 dollars) of foreign exchange for the rights from Bell Labs to make transistors, came out with the first model in 1955: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/TR-55
Then sometime in the '80s? they moved a lot of production for the US market to Mexico and my family started suffering from cold solder joints. We're rather careful about buying Sony equipment nowadays and don't buy much.
As for consumer products, xiaomi plans to be in hundreds of product categories, maybe they'll succeed.
As long as Volvo is manufactured in China, I'll never buy one again. I'm not the only one: Volvos are falling out of favor for Subaru, and largely for the same reasons. So as far as I'm concerned, China cheapens brands.
Nationality/"made in" bias does have some effect on purchasing behaviours but I doubt the seemingly strong effect it has on you is representative.
Sex appeal is directly tied to worldly (in the jungle sense) success. Give it time.
Increasing labor costs in China and the strengthening of the Yuan (not the recent move, the 10 year trend) are probably the primary things driving manufacturing back to the US.
Stimulating local economy?
http://www.feasta.org/2012/06/17/trade-off-financial-system-...
Carson gives the alternative as a local industrial base that fits itself to local consumption similar to how flour mills operate. No need to force New York to consume as much as San Francisco.
American automakers have made good money in that market and many other companies have had exclusive special edition for Chinese market.
The one company that couldn't make bank is Tesla, I have no idea why probably market team not being able to adapt to the culture over there.