So no one really knows? I guess going with your gut would be the best answer here.
This also holds up to other research concluding timing is the biggest factor.
I've seen a number of solid startup teams cash in on recycling good ideas from the past (m&a shutdown) and execute well to satiate similar, modern needs. Novelty can be risky (Pebble / Apple Watch) because the latest entrant can learn and improve on what came before.